1. Potential Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Water Quality in South Puget Sound: A Management Perspective Tali Engoltz CIG Research Presentation June 4, 2002

2. Goals 1. Explore what is known about climate effects on estuarine processes. 2. Research the implications of regional climate variability on water quality in South Puget Sound.

3. Goals 3. Relate the results to the perceptions of water resources managers regarding climate variability and its implications for management. 4. Suggest topics for further research on the potential effects of a variable and changing climate on the interactions between estuaries and watersheds

4. Study Site South Puget Sound is defined as the waters south of the Narrows near Tacoma, WA. This study concentrated on Budd Inlet and the Deschutes and Kitsap watersheds.

5. WRIA 13: Deschutes http://www.co.thurston.wa.us/wwm/utilitydev%20pages/wria_13.htm

6. WRIA 15: Kitsap http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/eap/wrias/15.html

7. Methods  Literature Search and Synthesis  To review current and historical research on the impacts of climate variability and change on coastal systems  South Puget Sound Area Synthesis Model (SPASM): A computer model developed by the WA DOE  To model watershed inputs and estuarine responses under a number of climate scenarios  Elite Interviewing  To understand the perspectives of water resource managers on the use of climate information in management

8. Results: Literature Review  Impacts will vary regionally and could include: 1. Impaired water quality and quantity 2. Altered biotic community structures 3. Reduced runoff and groundwater recharge 4. Changes in the timing of low/high stream flows 5. Increased sediment and nutrient loads 6. Changes in estuarine salinity 7. Fewer socioeconomic benefits: fishing, recreation…

9. Results: SPASM

11. The four output parameters showed sensitivity to altered climate-related parameters as follows:  Salinity: Sensitive to changes in riverflow, sunlight, and ocean boundary salinity;  Water Temperature: Sensitive to changes in ocean boundary temperature and sometimes to sunlight;  DO: Sensitive to changes in sunlight, DIN inputs, and ocean boundary temperature conditions; and  Chl a: Sensitive to changes in sunlight, riverflow, and DIN inputs.

12. Results: Elite Interviews  Fifteen interviews conducted  Agencies represented included:  WA Dept. of Fish and Wildlife and WA Dept. of Ecology  PSWQAT  Taylor Shellfish, Inc.  Thurston and Kitsap Counties  City of Bremerton  Tribes

13. What parameters lead to water quality impairment in South Puget Sound?

14. Which climate variables are likely to affect water quality in South Puget Sound and surrounding waters?

15. What are your sources of information about climate variability and change?

16. All 15 respondents felt that there IS a role for climate information in water resource management. This is what they would want to know:

17. Conclusions, Recommendations, and Future Research Directions

18. Acknowledgements  JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group  Funding  Scientific support  WA State Department of Ecology  SPASM use and results  Specifically:  Professor David Fluharty, SMA  Doug Canning, WADOE; Warren Wooster, SMA  Skip Albertson, WADOE  Jan Newton, WADOE and School of Oceanography  Kurt Heintz, School of Oceanography