1. Muslims and the West: Testing the Clash of Civilizations Thesis Pippa Norris and Ronald Inglehart

2. Structure I.The ‘clash of civilizations’ thesis II.The policy issue III.Hypotheses, survey data, and research design Contrasts between West and Islam? Support for democratic performance and principles Or support for gender equality and sexual liberalization IV.Results and conclusions Eros not Demos divides

3. I. The ‘Clash’ Thesis (i) Societal values are based on civilizational cultures based mainly on religion: Western Christianity, Islamic, Orthodox, Latin American, Sinic, Japanese, Hindu, Buddhist, Sub-Saharan Africa (ii) The core cultural difference between the West and Islam relate to democratic values The separation of church and state, rule of law & social pluralism, institutions of representative government “these concepts, practices and institutions form part of the essential continuing core of Western civilization.” (pp70-71) (iii) Cultural differences are at the root of much international and domestic conflict in the post Cold War era

4. Responses 1.Single Islamic culture from Jakarta to Riyadh and Istanbul? 2.Even if there is a common Muslim culture, is it antithetical to democratic values? 3.Deep divisions within Islamic societies - root causes of radical fundamentalism lie in structural differences between rich and poor

5. Core Hypotheses 1.‘Clash’ thesis : The strongest contrast in political values are between the West and Muslim societies. 2.Modernization thesis : The strongest contrasts between the West and Muslim societies relate to issues of sexual liberalization and gender equality, not democracy

6. II: Policy relevance Ian Buruma ‘ An Islamic democracy for Iraq ?’ NYT 5 th Dec 2004 Is ‘Islamic democracy’ really possible? Division of politics and religious authority? Force ‘secularization’ in politics? Or ‘backlash’ “ Islamic democracy has no track record” Turkey? Indonesia? Iran?

7. Democratization by region

8. Democratization by predominant religion

9. Predominant Muslim States

10. III. Evidence WVS 1995-2001 70+ societies

12. Evidence Countries classified by predominant religion –9 Islamic societies –(Albania, Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Morocco, Pakistan, Turkey) (+ 2 Algeria & Indonesia) –10 other societies with Muslim minorities (eg India, Nigeria) Control variables Human Development Index Political development (FH democracy) Social factors (age, education, income, gender) Strength of religiosity scale

13. Measures of political values Disapprove of Democratic Performance Approve of Democratic ideals Approve of religious leadership Approve of strong leadership Scale1Scale2Scale3Scale4 V1 70 Democracies are indecisive and have too much squabbling.856 V1 71 Democracies aren’t good at maintaining order.854 V1 72 Democracy may have its problems but its better than any other form of government.858 V1 67 Approve of having a democratic political system.772 V2 00 Politicians who do not believe in God are unfit for public office.869 V2 02 It would be better for [this country] if more people with strong religious beliefs held public office..875 V1 65 Approve having experts, not government, make decisions.870 V1 64 Approve having a strong leaders who does not have to bother with parliament and elections.663 % Of total variance19.314.125.912.5

14. IV: Results – Democratic performance and Ideals

16. Results: Leadership

18. Gender equality scale * MENPOL “On the whole, men make better political leader than women do.”  MENJOBS “When jobs are scarce, men should have more right to a job than women.”  BOYEDUC “A university education is more important for a boy than a girl.” NEEDKID “Do you think that a woman has to have children in order to be fulfilled or is this not necessary?” * SGLMUM “If a woman wants to have a child as a single parent but she doesn’t want to have a stable relationship with a man, do you approve or disapprove?”

19. Support for gender equality Western Islamic

20. Approval of homosexuality “Please tell me for each of the following statements whether you think it can always be justified, never be justified, or something in between, using this card from 1 (never justifiable) to 10 (Always justifiable).” …Homosexuality

21. Approval of divorce & abortion “Please tell me for each of the following statements whether you think it can always be justified, never be justified, or something in between, using this card from 1 (never justifiable) to 10 (Always justifiable).” …divorce/ …abortion

22. Multivariate models e.g. Approve of Democratic Performance BSt. Err.BetaSig Developmental controls Level of human development (100-point scale)-2.4.1.0-.02** Level of political development0.16.06.01** Social controls Age (Years)-0.05.01-.05*** Gender (Male=1)0.41.12.01*** Education (3 categories low to hi)1.56.07.08*** Income (10 categories low to hi)0.01.01.02*** Religiosity scale (100-pt low to hi)-0.01.01-.02*** Type of society Islamic1.3.34.03*** Orthodox-8.9.25-.18*** Central European-5.4.21-.11*** Latin American-6.1.24-.11*** Sinic1.4.45.01*** Sub-Saharan African-3.6.43-.05*** Hindu-8.9.61-.06*** Japanese3.4.50.02*** (Constant)68.8.94 Adjusted R 2 Block 1 (Control variables only).01 Adjusted R 2 Block 2 (Controls + type of society).05

23. Multivariate models Approve of gender equality Approve of homosexuality Approve of abortionApprove of divorce Scale0-1001-10 BSt. Err. Bet a SigBSt. Err. Bet a SigBSt. Err. Bet a SigBSt. Err. Bet a Sig Type of society Islamic-8.2.35-.18***-1.9.05-.18***-0.67.05-.07***-0.25.05-.03*** Orthodox-8.9.30-.17***-2.1.04-.26***0.24.04.03***-0.20.04-.03*** Central European-6.6.30-.09***-1.6.03-.18***0.24.03 ***0.01.03.01N/s Latin American2.6.25.05***.03-.11***-1.20.03-.14***0.15.04.02*** Sinic/Confucian-0.3.69-.01N/s-2.9.07-.13***-2.10.06-.10***-2.30.07-.11*** Sub-Saharan African7.3.4213***-0.6.06-.05***-0.08.06-.01N/s0.29.06.03*** Hindu3.4.53.03***-1.2.08-.05***-0.05.08-.01N/s-0.10.08-.01N/s Japanese-14.4.52-.09***-1.5.06-.06***-0.45.06-.02***-0.05.07-.01N/s (Constant)32.7 1.6 3.1 2.16 Adjusted R 2 Block 1 (Control variables only).26.20.23.26 Adjusted R 2 Block 2 (Controls + type of society).33.21.26.31 N.6347 6 999 80 1032 90 1054 32 Note: Note: OLS regression models with blockwise entry with the social value scales as the dependent variables. The full model is illustrated in Table A1. Block 1 in all models control for the level of human development (Human Development Index 1998), level of political development (Freedom House 7-point index (reversed) of political rights and civil liberties 1999-2000), age (years), gender (male=1), education (3 categories from low to high), income (10 categories), and religiosity. Block 2 then enters the type of society, based on the predominant religion, coded as dummy variables. Western societies represent the (omitted) reference category. The coefficients can be understood to represent the effect of living in each type of society compared with living in Western societies, net of all prior controls. Type of society: see Table 1. Gender equality scale: For details see fn.7. Sexual liberalization scales: “Please tell me for each of the following statements whether you think it [Homosexuality/ abortion/ divorce] can always be justified, never be justified, or something in-between, using this card from 1 (never justifiable) to 10 (Always justifiable).” Sig. ***p.001 ** p.01 *p.05. N/s Not significant. Source: All World Values Survey/European Values Survey (WVS), pooled sample 1995-2001.

24. Conclusions 1.Western and Muslim societies similar faith in democratic performance and ideals. 2.Main contrast on these issues is Orthodox post- Communist nations v. West and Islam 3.Differences between Western and Muslim societies exist on religious authorities and strong leaders, but this is also evident in Africa and Latin America. 4.Persistent and growing gap between West and Muslim societies on issues of gender equality and sexual mores.

25. Huntington’s response 1.Cite critics but don’t say whether we agree or disagree with them (true). 2.We suggest that Huntington claims that there is an inherent conflict between Islam and democracy: yet in the Third Wave he suggests that there are two sides to this unresolved issue. 3.‘Paradox of democracy’: those arguing most strongly for democratic elections in Muslim societies are often fundamentalist populists seeking to gain power 4.The WVS is a great contribution which allows systematic survey evidence to prove what he could not demonstrate earlier: culture matters. 5.Modernization and Westernization distinct: “The West was the West before it started to modernize.” Modernization produces change but not necessarily convergence.

26. Implications for Iraq?

27. Case-study discussion: Wed 7 th Dec You have been asked by the US Institute of Peace to produce an independent consultancy report recommending priorities in rebuilding Iraq during the next decade. The mandate of the United States Institute of Peace, as established by Congress, is to support the development, transmission, and use of knowledge to promote peace and curb violent international conflict. Drawing upon one of the key theories developed during this course, you are asked to evaluate the available evidence and to present a series of recommendations to this agency. The reports will be presented by a spokesperson for each group in class on Wednesday 7 th Dec.

28. More details: www.pippanorris.com Ronald Inglehart and Pippa Norris Sacred and Secular (CUP 2004) Foreign Policy March 2003