1. ETHNIC MINORITY YOUTH IN THE LABOR MARKETS OF EUROPE Suzanne Model Gene Fisher Dept of Sociology, University of Massachusetts, Amherst Presented at the Spring meeting of Research Committee 28 of the ISA at Nijmegen, The Netherlands on May 14, 2006

2. Research Questions Why are exclusionary sentiments rising in Europe? New examination to enter Holland. Why are Dutch celebrities being murdered for their intolerance? Pim Fortuyn and Theo Van Gogh Why are French (and British) ethnic minorities rioting? October 2005, vandalism outburst

3. Theoretical Answers Deprivation Accounts: Ethnic conflict occurs because a group perceives itself as disadvantaged because other groups discriminate against it. Competition Accounts Ethnic conflict occurs because of competition over employment or over the rewards of employment.

4. Hypotheses ● 1. Those ethnic groups that are engaging in violence do so because they are deprived. – Discrimination prevents them from accessing the economic, residential, and political outcomes that dominant members enjoy. ● 2. Ethnic conflict is occurring because of intergroup competition. – Ethnic competition is occurring because the number of job opportunities cannot keep pace with the growth of ethnic minority job seekers. – Ethnic minorities are entering occupations previously reserved for higher status groups.

5. DATA ● 2 countries, Netherlands and France, (plan to add England). ● Subjects: males, age 16-25 ● Sources: – Netherlands: SPVAFrance: Labor Force Survey ● Years – NetherlandsFrance ● 1991*1991 ● 1994*1994 ● 1998*1997 ● 20022003* ● * used in multivariate analyses

6. ETHNIC GROUPS ● Comparison group: – NetherlandsFrance – 1.Native born Dutch of1. Native born French of – native born parents native born parents ● Minority groups – 2. Turks 2. Maghrebis* – 3. Moroccans 3. Southern Europeans – 4. Black Caribbeans 4. Black Africans ● Remaining ethnic groups excluded from tables and discussion.

7. Outcomes ● 1. Deprivation Index = Idle + Unemployed. – Combines Idle, not in school and not in labor force – And Unemployed, in labor force but no job. ● 2. Occupational Prestige: isei ● 3. Hourly earnings – Not reported here, results similar to isei results. ● 4. Location index: Proportion of a group in work divided by proportion of that group in the working population.

8. Method of Analysis ● 1. Test of deprivation comparing outcome measures of ethnic minorities and dominant groups ● 2. Test for discrimination by comparing outcome measures of ethnic minorities and dominant groups adjusted for qualifications. ● 3. Examine trends in population, employment, and occupational distribution, for evidence of ethnic competition.

9. Unadj. Deprivation Indexes: Holland Year NB DutchTurkMoroc.Black 1991 35.541.045.054.5 1994 11.127.526.227.2 1998 10.226.426.017.6 200210.224.022.322.5

10. Unadj. Deprivation Indexes: France Year SoucheSE EuropMaghrebBlack 1991 10.58.521.012.7 1994 11.818.719.718.1 1997 10.513.320.723.0 200314.211.728.426.6

11. Adj. Discrimination Indexes: Holland Year NB DutchTurkMoroc.Black 1991 35.530.227.339.0 1994 11.123.148.6610.8 1998 10.226.024.912.7 2002NA

12. Deprivation Indexes: France, 2003 SoucheSE EuropMaghrebBlack Un- adjusted 12.413.125.3*28.7* Adjusted 12.411.619.51*19.11*

13. Occupational Status, Holland 1998 NB DutchTurkMoroc.Black Un- adjusted 38.133.3*33.0*38.7 Adjusted 38.137.737.240.5

14. Occupational Status, France 2003 SoucheSE EuropMaghrebBlack Un- adjusted 37.835.1*38.138.7 Adjusted 37.835.837.735.1

15. Job Market Share Changes, France 1991- 2003 (%) SoucheSE EuropMaghrebBlack 1991 Pop. 74.75.833.953.24 Pop. change -5.2-13.2+73.7+61.1 Job share change -4.2-11.9+69.2+54.9 Location change +1.0+1.6-2.6-3.9

16. Conclusion ● 1. Evidence of Deprivation – Greater in France than Holland ● France is trending up, Holland is trending down – Occ. Status, in Holland only. ● 2. Evidence of Discrimination – Results the same for Holland; slight attenuation for France. – Occ. Status, none. ● 3. Evidence of Competition: – Job growth lags behind minority population growth. ● 4. Structural reasons indicate that disadvantage is greater in France than in Holland, making conditions there conducive to ethnic conflict.