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Forest damage in a changing climate

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Presentation on theme: "Forest damage in a changing climate"— Presentation transcript:

1 Forest damage in a changing climate
Anna Maria Jönsson and Lars Bärring Dept. of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Analysis Geobiosphere Science Centre, Lund University

2 Forest damage in a changing climate
Predisposing factors Climate change, Tree species and Provenances Forest management, Nutrient availability, Air pollution Triggering factors Weather events exceeding tree acclimatization capacity Often causing visible damage Contributing factors Attacks by pests and pathogens Often the cause of mortality

3 Extreme weather event ≠ Extreme situation for the tree
Acclimatization The ability to adjust to changing weather conditions Tolerate non-optimal conditions Threshold values could be more important than extreme values Affected by Example Seasonality Spring backlashes Intensity Flooding Duration Dry spells Frequency Wind storms Combination Spring frost followed by drought

4 Tree nutrient availability
decomposition, weathering, mycorrhiza, leakage Climate change temperature dry spells during summer flooding episodes storm frequency Tree damage frost damage drought stress root oxygen deficiency wind throw, root damage CO2 Pests and Pathogens Photosynthesis: growth - repair - defence - respiration NPP +10-20%

5 Ongoing activities within ENSEMBLES
related to task 6.2.2, 6.2.3, and Spring backlash index: Frost damage projections SBI has been calculated for Sweden, is currently applied to European conditions using the PRUDENCE dataset, and will use ENSEMBLES RCM data. A Frost hardiness and damage sub-module is incorporated to the vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. 2) Modelling the temperature dependent development of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus The model has been applied to south Swedish conditions, and will be applied for Northern European spruce forests using ENSEMBLES RCM data.

6 Start of dehardening in Norway spruce
5 consecutive days with a mean temperature above 5°C Scenario B2 Scenario A2 1 2 3 4 5 month Climate data: HadRM3

7 Frost events after the start of dehardening over 30-years
Control period Scenario B2 - Control Scenario A2 - Control Number of events Difference

8 Temperature dependent annual cycle of Ips typographus
Egg development Summer swarming? > Spring swarming Egg development? Winter mortality Almost 100% for not completely developed bark beetles

9 Development of Ips typographus in Växjö
April May June July August September Scenario B2 Scenario A2 Spring swarm Completed development

10 Temperature dependent summer swarming
of Ips typographus Data from RCA3 Scenario A2

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