1. SHENAIR - Shenandoah Valley Air Quality Initiative Jim Giraytys, Certified Consulting Meteorologist Adjunct Assistant Professor, James Madison University

2. What is SHENAIR? An Integrated Program –Societal Community Needs Planning and decision Making Economic Development –Science/Medical –Engineering –Virtual Institute Shenandoah Valley Air Quality Initiative

3. What Can We Say? (Based on 2 1/2 years of work) Air Quality in the Valley is marginal to OK (depending on location and season). –Winchester/Frederick will (with 95% certainty) be taken off the Ozone non- compliance list after the 2008 Ozone season ends in October. Valley AirNow has been successful. –Even with the lowering of the EPA limit on ozone to 75 parts per billion (from 80 ppb) W/F should be OK, until there is another drought. (sunlight + NOX + VOCs = Ozone) –PM 2.5 measurements are OK now, but will depend on any reductions in EPA values, if any. Roanoke will continue to be in non-compliance with EPA ozone levels. Same is true for some of the counties in West Virginia along the I-81 corridor. Big Meadows was taken off the ozone non-compliance list, but there have been three exceedence days so far this year. Not enough to put them back on the list, but the ozone levels at Big Meadows are something to watch because those levels are indicators of transport to the Valley.

4. What Can We Say? (Based on 2 1/2 years of work) NOAA guidance on pollutants for the Valley has not yet stabilized to the point where it is dependable for local uses. Work is in progress. Back Trajectory analyses identify significant differences in ozone levels depending on classification (moist, dry, polar, tropical, etc.), and direction of the flow. Also, the analyses show significant differences between the Northern (Martinsburg) and Southern (Roanoke) parts of the Greater Valley Atmospheric Influence on Respiratory Illness Alert System (AIRIAS) is nearing prototype testing. –A biometeorological model to predict days when individuals with environmentally-related, chronic respiratory diseases may be affected. –AIRIAS is the first model of its kind to link external environmental factors related to weather to respiratory disease cases. EMS Decision Support based on Hazard Prediction Assessment Capability (HPAC) and Consequence Assessment Tool Set (CATS) will not be useful due to software incompatibilities.

5. SHENAIR Results

6. Schematic of End-to-End Modeling for Health Impacts

7. VA Tech Modeling Highlights Model preparation –Achieved compatibility with DEQ modeling –Obtained and entered data bases including GIS information on point sources –Running models on VA Tech computers Preliminary First Steps –Conducted a model performance evaluation, including comparison to observations and sensitivity testing –Modeled an air pollution episode from summer 2002 to build upon the Virginia DEQ’s modeling effort –Provided spatial estimates of emissions and predicted pollutant concentrations Conclusion: Valley air quality is marginal to OK, but depends on location, season, and parameters being measured.

8. SHENAIR Results

9. NOAA PM 2.5 Study

10. Sites: Martinsburg, WV Luray Big Meadows Rockingham (Harrisonburg) Round Hill (Roanoke) Raleigh Court (Roanoke) Time Period: September 2006 to December 2007 For NOAA PM 2.5 Guidance Study (Gene Tucker, Ann Albrecht)

11. There was significant variability between the guidance and monitored concentrations of PM2.5 for the time period considered. The accuracy of the guidance varied by site, time of the year, day of the week, and hour of the day. The model sometimes under-predicted or over-predicted the monitored data by 30µg/m3 or more. PM2.5 concentrations at all sites were under-predicted by the model in summer 2007, and over-predicted in fall 2007. Consultations are ongoing with NOAA modelers to determine why the differences exist. From NOAA Guidance Comparison for PM 2.5

12. EMS Decision Support

13. EMS Decision Support (Mike Deaton) Conclusions: Table top exercise was success EMS wanted flood and forest fires which can be included Unfortunately, CATS/HPAC is not compatible with GIS version 4 that EMS will be using. Hazard Prediction Assessment Capability Consequence Assement Tool Set

14. ICELI and Idle Reduction

15. ICELI and Idle Reduction (International Council for Local and Environmental Initiatives) (C.J. Brodrick) ICELI - Software to provide: (With Ann Albrecht and Sean McGinnis) –an emissions inventory and forecast, –setting goals for emissions reduction, –development and implementation of a local plan, –regular monitoring to determine the effectiveness of the plan Assessment for Roanoke completed Winchester approved funding for assessment Idle Reduction (With Linda Gaines - Argonne National Lab) Examined strategies for coping with engine idling for long haul trucks including engine idling, electrified parking spaces, auxiliary power units, and several combinations of these. –Potential exists for equivalent of 2.8 hours of engine idling in Virginia for each long haul truck using I-81 –Provides a partial basis for a decision support tool as to which of the strategies is effective. –There is no clear winner, and the choice depends on various factors, including climatic situations

16. SHENAIR Results

17. UVA and Back Trajectories (Bob Davis, and a great set of graduate students)

18. ROANOKE (72 hour Back Trajectories) DM (217)

19. ROANOKE (72 hour Back Trajectories) DM (217) (89) DT (90) DP MM (97) MP (94) (50) MT Ozone high Ozone low Ozone high

20. What Can We Say? (Based on 2 1/2 years of work) Air Quality in the Valley is marginal to OK (depending on location and season). –Winchester/Frederick will (with 95% certainty) be taken off the Ozone non-compliance list after the 2008 Ozone season ends in October. Valley AirNow has been successful. –Even with the lowering of the EPA limit on ozone to 75 parts per billion (from 80 ppb) W/F should be OK, until there is another drought. (sunlight + NOX + VOCs = Ozone) –PM 2.5 measurements are OK now, but will depend on any reductions in EPA values, if any. Roanoke will continue to be in non-compliance with EPA ozone levels. Same is true for some of the counties in West Virginia along the I-81 corridor. Big Meadows was taken off the ozone non-compliance list, but there have been three exceedence days so far this year. Not enough to put them back on the list, but the ozone levels at Big Meadows are something to watch because those levels are indicators of transport to the Valley.

21. What Can We Say? (Based on 2 1/2 years of work) NOAA guidance on pollutants for the Valley has not yet stabilized to the point where it is dependable for local uses. Work is in progress. Back Trajectory analyses identify significant differences in ozone levels depending on classification (moist, dry, polar, tropical, etc.), and direction of the flow. Also, the analyses show significant differences between the Northern (Martinsburg) and Southern (Roanoke) parts of the Greater Valley Atmospheric Influence on Respiratory Illness Alert System (AIRIAS) is nearing prototype testing. –A biometeorological model to predict days when individuals with environmentally-related, chronic respiratory diseases may be affected. –AIRIAS is the first model of its kind to link external environmental factors related to weather to respiratory disease cases. EMS Decision Support based on Hazard Prediction Assessment Capability (HPAC) and Consequence Assessment Tool Set (CATS) will not be useful due to software incompatibilities.