1. Facing the crisis: what reactions of LMP? Phase I (2008-2010) Ambivalent trends -Some adaptations and deviations from the standard activation/welfare to work framework… -Internal flexibility and employment maintenance - Income support policies (UI, minimum wage) -But « activation » still going on - Institutional reforms (PES, one stop centres) - Focus on private sector (ALMP programmes) - Welfare to work schemes Phase II (2010-?) At least in political discourse, one single orientation Fiscal austerity + wage moderation+activation

2. Reactions of labour market policies: a typology Policy toolCountries Working time flexibility (incl. PT work)BE-AL-ES-HO-IT-LU-NL-SI-CZ-FR Social contribution cutsBE-ES-FR-HO-PT-SE-SI Unemployment insurance: coverage extensions FI- FR- PT-EE-SE Unemployment insurance: increasing generosity ES-PT-LIT-RO-BU-AL Minimum wage increasesES-BU-RO-PO-PT-LIT Targeted programmes: job subsidiesRU- FR-HU- LT Targeted programmes: restructuring sectorsIE-FR-LIT-PB Targeted programmes: trainingBU- CZ-DE-GR- FR-FI-IE-LT-PT-RU Ciblées jeunes : IE-FR-PB-PT-RU Source :OECD, 2009 ; European Commission, 2009 ; Messenger, 2009 ; SPC, 2009 Erhel (2010) Document de travail CES

3. Reactions of labour market policies: adaptations in 2010-2011 Source: EEO, Quarterly Reports Executive Summary, september 2010 Decrease in public employment and/or in wages in the public sector plans (announced 2010-2011) CY-CZ-GR-PT-RO-RU Continued specific crisis measuresBE (STW) BG (apprenticeship and learning, green jobs)) FR (STW, youth) NL (STW) SE (Training)

4. A crisis of the paradigm? -Clear signs of radicalisation Striking examples in the three presentations But also French debate (see « RSA » debate) Underlying discourse: we have not gone far enough and should deepen activation etc.! -But trends over the last 20 years evidence the failure of that model Indeed, it has been implemented: see even OECD indicators! EPL has gone down, traps have been reduced, indirect labour costs also…) But very limited improvement in LM performances (U, quality of work) and high cyclical vulnerability in some countries + polarization and asymmetry (workers are paying) + forgotten promises (flexicurity) >>>A paradigm in crisis

5. What dynamics? -Two ways (1) Continuity>>>new crisis and social/political instability in Europe (2) Another paradigm: but what components? EU 2020 Employment guidelines> focus on education Social investment? Green economy and sustainable growth? Quality of work/quality of life? Some elements but still not so consistent as the activation model…