1. Unit 4 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change Risk Identification: Concept and Generic Techniques COMM80: Risk Assessment of Systems Change Unit 4.

2. Unit 4 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change Objectives of Session Coverage To consider specific examples of risks that affect projects. To identify generic techniques that are widely used for risk identification. To practise the use of one (brainstorming).

3. Unit 4 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change Typical Risks The next few slides show typical risks that have been identified and published in the literature: –These are often the basis for formal repository lists. –These are all from a systems development perspective but it should be noted that very few of the risks are specific to that environment.

4. Unit 4 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change Boehm’s “Top 10 risk items” People –Personnel shortfalls Resources –Unrealistic schedules and budgets Requirements –Developing wrong functions –Developing wrong UI –Gold plating –Changing requirements External risks –Shortfalls in externally produced components –Shortfalls in externally performed tasks Technology risks –Real-time performance inadequacies –Straining CS capabilities IEEE Software, January 1991.

5. Unit 4 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change Common Risks from Keil et al 1.lack of top management commitment to the project 2.failure to gain user commitment 3.misunderstanding the requirements 4.lack of adequate user involvement 5.failure to manage end user expectations 6.changing scope/ objections 7.lack of required knowledge or skills in the project personnel 8.lack of frozen requirements 9.introduction of new technology 10.insufficient or inappropriate staffing 11.conflict between user departments. Identified by experienced software project managers from the USA, Hong Kong and Finland. In order of perceived importance, these factors are: “Framework for identifying software project risks” Communications of the ACM, vol 41 (11)

6. Unit 4 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change Moynihan’s risks/concerns 1. Client’s understanding of the requirements/problem to be solved (12) 2. Seniority & commitment of the project patron/owner (9) 3. Level of IT competence, experience of the customers (9) 4. Need to integrate/interface with other systems (9) 5. Scale/coordination complexity of the project (need to share resources, subcontract, etc) (8) 6. Where project control resides (developer v client v third parties) (8) 7. Level of change to be experienced by the client (to procedures, workflow, structures, etc) (7) 8. The need to satisfy multiple groups of disparate users versus the need to satisfy one group of similar users (7) 9. Who we will be working through: users versus the IT department, individuals versus committees (7) 10. Developer’s familiarity with platform/environment/methods (7) (From 14 experienced systems developer managers in Ireland: developing systems for other companies)

7. Unit 4 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change Moynihan’s risks 11. Developer’s previous experience with the application (6) 12. Level of enthusiasm/support/"energy" for the project in the client’s organization (5) 13. Logical complexity of the application (5) 14. Ease of solution validation (e.g. possibility of prototyping) (4) 15. Client’s willingness/capability to handle implementation (3) 16. Freedom of choice of platform/development environment (3) 17. Criticality/reversibility of the new system roll-out (2) 18. Maturity of the technology to be used (2) 19. Developer’s knowledge of country/culture/language (2) 20. Stability of the client’s business environment (2) 21. Developer’s knowledge of client’s business sector (2) IEEE Software 14(3) pp35-41

8. Unit 4 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change Classic Problems – Process-Related Overly optimistic schedules Insufficient risk management Contractor failure Insufficient planning Stop planning under pressure Wasted time during fuzzy front end Short-changed upstream activities Inadequate design Short-changed quality assurance Insufficient management controls Premature or overly frequent convergence Omitting necessary tasks from estimates Planning to catch up later “Code-like-hell” programming www.cs.ualberta.ca/~sorenson/cmput401/lectures/ProjPlanning

9. Unit 4 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change Classic Problems – People-Related Undermined motivation Weak personnel Uncontrolled problem employees Heroics Adding people to a late project Noisy, crowded offices Friction between developers and clients Unrealistic expectations Lack of effective project sponsorship Lack of stakeholder buy-in Lack of user input Politics placed over substance Wishful thinking www.cs.ualberta.ca/~sorenson/cmput401/lectures/ProjPlanning

10. Unit 4 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change Classic Problems – Product and Technology Related Product-Related Requirements gold- plating Feature creep Developer gold-plating Push-me, pull-me negotiations Research-oriented development Technology-Related Silver-bullet syndrome Over-estimated savings from new tools or methods Switching tools in mid- project Lack of automated source code control www.cs.ualberta.ca/~sorenson/cmput401/lectures/ProjPlanning

11. Unit 4 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change Typical Risk Identification The most common ways of identifying risks are: –Questionnaires, interviews, brainstorming and checklists. –Historical information is also as input to these techniques. This comes from: Common sense/experience/“I’ve seen that before”, or a formal risk repository Techniques range from using common sense and experience through to formal “risk review” procedures.

12. Unit 4 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change Risk Checklists These vary from the simple in-house lists to elaborate database repositories of risks. –In using checklists the idea is to assess current projects against known risks. –It should be a two-way process, as new risks are identified by other means they should be entered into the evolving repository. –Users should also consider whether any of the risks can be deleted or retired.

13. Unit 4 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change An Example of a Risk Repository Databases such as Risk Radar TM ( www.iceinceUSA.com) allow risk lists to be developed … within organisations. … and reused / evolved

14. Unit 4 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change Brainstorming: Rules Seek Quantity not Quality Defer Judgement Record the ideas so that they are visible to all. Build on one another's ideas.

15. Unit 4 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change Brainstorming: Procedure Select one member of the group as the recorder Put the topic to be considered on a flip chart/white board. (It may help to underline the key words). Ask for possible solutions/ideas to be called out. –Record these, without allowing any opinion on value or relevance to be expressed at this stage. Continue until ideas cease. THEN evaluate the ideas, and refine the proposals.

16. Unit 4 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change Brainstorming: Warm Up In a group where this is a new approach have a “warm up” exercise –chose a “trivial” topic - such as: “List possible uses for a brick”. –If an explanation is asked for when a suggestion is made give it in this exercise but explain that this stops the flow of ideas. To use the technique correctly there should be no interruption. Once the group is comfortable with the technique it can be applied “for real”.

17. Unit 4 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change Brainstorming: Class Exercise Your turn: >>>>>>>>>> –we will now try the warm up exercise: List possible uses for a brick. (permit 15 minutes) >>>>>>>>>> –Now for real: List possible risks and opportunities in changing from a telephone mail ordering system to a web-based one.

18. Unit 4 University of Sunderland COMM80 Risk Assessment of Systems Change Moving On We’re now in a position to move on to a systems change case study –we will use some of the techniques we study on this –we will initially identify risks associated with systems change in the case study.