1. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-0 INTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT EUN / RESNICK Fourth Edition Chapter Objective: This chapter serves to introduce you to the balance of payments. How it is constructed and how balance of payments data may be interpreted. 3 Chapter Three The Balance of Payments

2. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-1 Outline Balance of Payments Accounting Balance of Payments Accounts The Current Account The Capital Account Official Reserves Account Statistical Discrepancy The Balance of Payments Identity

3. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-2 The balance of payments accounts are those that record all transactions between the residents of a country and residents of all foreign nations. They are composed of the following: The Current Account The Capital Account The Official Reserves Account Statistical Discrepancy Balance of Payments Accounts

4. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-3 Balance of Payments (BOP) BOP = cash flow of the country Sources of the cash flow: 1) earned income from trade in goods and services 2) donated money 3) foreign loans and investment 1) + 2)  Current Account (cannot be taken back) 3)  Capital Account (can be taken back)

5. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-4 The Current Account (CA) Mainly consist of 4 types of transactions: 1. Exports and imports of goods 2. Exports and imports of services 3. Interest payments received and paid out on international investments 4. Unilateral transfers If the debits exceed the credits, then a country is running a current account deficit. If the credits exceed the debits, then a country is running a current account surplus.

6. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-5 The Capital Account (KA) KA primarily tracks transactions involving buying and selling of financial and non-financial assets. Can be divided into 3 categories: 1. Direct investment 2. Portfolio investment 3. Other investments (mostly loans, currencies) Purchase of residents assets by non-residents (i.e. inflows) are credits. Purchases of non-residents assets by residents (i.e. outflows) are debits

7. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-6 Example: Thai Net Capital Flow Millions of USD2007 2008 H1H2Q1Q2AprMayJun E Monetary authorities -619-766147641-375-50-83-242 Government-2,159 - 1,907 -252446146-276829-407 Bank368 - 6,052 6,4207,097204659-160-294 Other sectors-5706,755-7,3254,842 - 1,302 1,00 4 607 - 2,913 Non – bank1,082 6,72 2 - 5,640 4,683-954 1,02 9 555 - 2,53 9 FDI7,451 4,18 0 3,2701,825 1,34 6 431489425 - Equity invest.7,4683,6483,8201,6991,344424455465 - Direct loans-18532-5501261734-40 Portfolio - 5,180 2,78 3 - 7,963 3,137 - 3,73 0 -61-596 - 3,07 4 - Foreign4,507 3,67 1 836515 - 1,08 0 427-92 - 1,41 5 Equity sec.4,2413,566675705-990435-68 - 1,357 Debt sec.267105162445-90-9-24-57 -Thai - 9,687 -888 - 8,799 2,621 - 2,65 0 -488-504 - 1,65 9 Loans (foreign)1,356422933 - 1,414 362311171-120 Others - 2,544 -663 - 1,881 1,136 1,06 8 348491230 State enterprises - 1,652 33 - 1,685 159-348-2552-375 Total capital flow-2,980 - 1,970 -1,010 13,02 6 - 1,327 1,33 7 1,19 3 - 3,856 BOP Analysis Team Tel. 0-2283-5636

8. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-7 The Official Reserves Account (RA) Reports the net change in FX reserves. Increases in FX reserves held by a central bank count as debits to the RA  FX reserves = BOP +  Valuation

9. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-8 Statistical Discrepancy There’s going to be some omissions and misrecorded transactions—so we use a “plug” figure to get things to balance.

10. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-9 The Balance of Payments Identity Most important feature of the BOP is a double-entry system of accounts: a positive entry in BOP has a corresponding negative entry elsewhere in the BOP, and vice versa. In general, Under a pure flexible exchange rate regime, CA + KA = 0 CA + KA + RA = 0

11. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-10 Example: U.S. Balance of Payments Data CreditsDebits Current Account 1Exports$1,516.2 2Imports ($2,109.1) 3Unilateral Transfers$16.4($89.4) Balance on Current Account ($665.9) Capital Account 4Direct Investment$115.5($248.5) 5Portfolio Investment$794.4($90.8) 6Other Investments$524.3($483.7) Balance on Capital Account $611.2 7Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance $2.8 Official Reserve Account $2.8 51.9

12. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-11 U.S. Balance of Payments Data Including the statistical discrepancies, the balance of payments identity should hold: CA + KA = – RA ($665.9) + $611.2 + $51.9 = ($2.8) CreditsDebits Current Account 1Exports$1,516.2 2Imports ($2,109.1) 3Unilateral Transfers$16.4($89.4) Balance on Current Account ($665.9) Capital Account 4Direct Investment$115.5($248.5) 5Portfolio Investment$794.4($90.8) 6Other Investments$524.3($483.7) Balance on Capital Account $611.2 7Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance $2.8 Official Reserve Account $2.8 51.9

13. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-12 BOP and Exchange Rate Q P As U.S. citizens import, they are supply dollars to the FOREX market. Exchange rate $ S D CreditsDebits Current Account 1Exports$1,516.2 2Imports ($2,109.1) 3Unilateral Transfers$16.4($89.4) Balance on Current Account ($665.9) Capital Account 4Direct Investment$115.5($248.5) 5Portfolio Investment$794.4($90.8) 6Other Investments$524.3($483.7) Balance on Capital Account $611.2 7Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance $2.8 Official Reserve Account $2.8 51.9

14. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-13 BOP and Exchange Rate Q P As U.S. citizens export, others demand dollars at the FOREX market. Exchange rate $ S D CreditsDebits Current Account 1Exports$1,516.2 2Imports ($2,109.1) 3Unilateral Transfers$16.4($89.4) Balance on Current Account ($665.9) Capital Account 4Direct Investment$115.5($248.5) 5Portfolio Investment$794.4($90.8) 6Other Investments$524.3($483.7) Balance on Capital Account $611.2 7Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance $2.8 Official Reserve Account $2.8 51.9

15. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-14 BOP and Exchange Rate Q PS D As the U.S. government sells dollars, the supply of dollars increases. S1S1 Exchange rate $ CreditsDebits Current Account 1Exports$1,516.2 2Imports ($2,109.1) 3Unilateral Transfers$16.4($89.4) Balance on Current Account ($665.9) Capital Account 4Direct Investment$115.5($248.5) 5Portfolio Investment$794.4($90.8) 6Other Investments$524.3($483.7) Balance on Capital Account $611.2 7Statistical Discrepancies Overall Balance $2.8 Official Reserve Account $2.8 51.9

16. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-15 BOP adjustments Suppose CA deficit > KA surplus ( at some point in time) Under flexible regime:  Currency depreciates  CA improves (more exports, less imports)  KA improves (more inflows, less outflows) Under fixed regime:  FX reserves decrease  If not enough reserves, then BOP crisis

17. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-16 CA and KA of the United States Source: IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various issues

18. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-17 CA and KA of China Source: IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, various issues

19. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-18 CA and KA of Thailand Source: BOT

20. Copyright © 2007 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 3-19 Billion USD Thailand’s International Reserves 54.4 55.9 Source: BOT