1. Maximizing Total Welfare within GMO Regulations Underrepresented Factors in the Existing GMO Policy Model Melissa Braybrooks Econ 539

2. GMO Debate Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs) Present Benefits: Present Benefits: Producer surplus Producer surplus Consumer surplus and environmental protection Consumer surplus and environmental protection Social Valuation Social Valuation ethics ethics trust trust biodiversity biodiversity Future Uncertainties Future Uncertainties

3. Current GMO Policy Scientific evidence, Industry protectionism (Aslaksen, 2006) Scientific evidence, Industry protectionism (Aslaksen, 2006) Producer/GMO Influence Producer/GMO Influence Interest group advantages (Gosling, 2004) Interest group advantages (Gosling, 2004) Quantitative present benefits Quantitative present benefits Underweighted Factors Underweighted Factors Social Valuation Social Valuation Future costs and benefits Future costs and benefits Current Policy Current Policy Fragmented Authority (global, federal, state, local) Fragmented Authority (global, federal, state, local) No uniform decision model No uniform decision model Relatively low GMO regulation Relatively low GMO regulation

4. Research Question Given the existing U.S. policy model how can social value and uncertainty factors be more equally weighted in order to maximize Total Welfare?

5. Estimating Social Value Contingent Valuation Methods Contingent Valuation Methods Mixed findings on public’s values/demand Mixed findings on public’s values/demand Agreement in lack of consumer awareness Agreement in lack of consumer awareness Problems Problems Willingness To Pay, Accept, Avoid, Consume Willingness To Pay, Accept, Avoid, Consume CV assumption of adequate information CV assumption of adequate information Dependency on binary dependent variable and tradeoff Dependency on binary dependent variable and tradeoff Areas for Improvement: Tolerance (Rousu, 2004) Areas for Improvement: Tolerance (Rousu, 2004) Bidding and WTP Bidding and WTP 0, 1%, 5% contamination and utility 0, 1%, 5% contamination and utility Illustrates trade off points Illustrates trade off points

6. Estimating Future Uncertainties Uruguay Round: Uruguay Round: Standards for risk analysis in biotechnology evaluation model Standards for risk analysis in biotechnology evaluation model Countries differ in weighting of risks within model Countries differ in weighting of risks within model Areas for Improvement: Areas for Improvement: Interdisciplinary involvement to support the identified uncertainties Interdisciplinary involvement to support the identified uncertainties Bayesian Analysis probability Bayesian Analysis probability

7. Improving the Total Welfare Model Social Value: CV complimented with tolerance Social Value: CV complimented with tolerance Trade off points for policy analysis Uncertainties: Identification and Probability Uncertainties: Identification and Probability Improved Present Value estimates Therefore …. Weight equality among factors in order to determine optimal Total Welfare Identify policy to best support optimal Total Welfare

8. Questions?? T-Minus 2 minutes and ……..GO!