1. Zocalo Developing Open Source Prediction Market Software Chris Hibbert CommerceNet Labs DIMACS Workshop on Markets as Predictive Devices 4 February 2005 Developing Open Source Prediction Market Software Chris Hibbert CommerceNet Labs DIMACS Workshop on Markets as Predictive Devices 4 February 2005

2. © 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005 2 Zocalo: Challenges My Objective: Promote broader use of Prediction Markets Our Opportunity: CommerceNet is starting an e-commerce lab. One Key Obstacle: No common software platform for prediction markets yet. My Objective: Promote broader use of Prediction Markets Our Opportunity: CommerceNet is starting an e-commerce lab. One Key Obstacle: No common software platform for prediction markets yet.

3. © 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005 3 Zocalo: A Proposal Our Proposed Solution: Catalyze development of an Open Source toolkit for Experimental (& Real) markets. Call to Action: Identify promising “wheels to stop re- inventing.” Collaborate with us on your next experiment. Help us make the case to CommerceNet. Our Proposed Solution: Catalyze development of an Open Source toolkit for Experimental (& Real) markets. Call to Action: Identify promising “wheels to stop re- inventing.” Collaborate with us on your next experiment. Help us make the case to CommerceNet.

4. © 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005 4 Outline My Background and Incentives Why me? The Target Markets for Zocalo Who should care? Why aren’t PM Toolkits Available Already? Benefits of Open Source Design for Flexibility Benefits of Working with CommerceNet My Background and Incentives Why me? The Target Markets for Zocalo Who should care? Why aren’t PM Toolkits Available Already? Benefits of Open Source Design for Flexibility Benefits of Working with CommerceNet

5. © 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005 5 My Background MIT, Xerox PARC Managed S/W Development for 12 Years Teams of 3 to 15 people E-Commerce projects at Agorics, Inc. Project Manager, Architect for GuardPoste Secure EMail Server, recently sold to Microsoft Extensive Experience with Electronic Commerce Internal E-Commerce at Sun Labs. Electronic Check (IBM, Sun, Top-10 banks) Strong background in Economics Have deployed and written Idea Futures S/W MIT, Xerox PARC Managed S/W Development for 12 Years Teams of 3 to 15 people E-Commerce projects at Agorics, Inc. Project Manager, Architect for GuardPoste Secure EMail Server, recently sold to Microsoft Extensive Experience with Electronic Commerce Internal E-Commerce at Sun Labs. Electronic Check (IBM, Sun, Top-10 banks) Strong background in Economics Have deployed and written Idea Futures S/W

6. © 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005 6 Target Audiences.edu Econ Departments Show how markets work.com Business Planning, Trading CommerceNet.org SimonMarket.org Policy Discussion

7. © 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005 7 Why Aren’t Prediction Market Toolkits Available? Researchers focus on running experiments: Little reward for publishing software. Toolkits emerge once experiments are systematized Corporate users develop proprietary solutions: Consulting, not general-purpose infrastructure. CommerceNet’s motivation is different: Its research focus is software engineering. Has track record of sharing software that creates new markets for electronic commerce. Researchers focus on running experiments: Little reward for publishing software. Toolkits emerge once experiments are systematized Corporate users develop proprietary solutions: Consulting, not general-purpose infrastructure. CommerceNet’s motivation is different: Its research focus is software engineering. Has track record of sharing software that creates new markets for electronic commerce.

8. © 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005 8 Benefits of Open Source Open Source Packages Best Practices and Makes it Accessible Later Users can Add Value to the Foundation Every Econ or Business Student Should Learn How to Put Together a Market Entrepreneurs Will Invent New Uses and Apply Markets in More Ways Some Will be Contributed Back to the OS project Open Source Packages Best Practices and Makes it Accessible Later Users can Add Value to the Foundation Every Econ or Business Student Should Learn How to Put Together a Market Entrepreneurs Will Invent New Uses and Apply Markets in More Ways Some Will be Contributed Back to the OS project

9. © 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005 9 The Zocalo Toolkit Design Develop a Variety of Exchange Tools Support CDA and Call Markets Trade Predictions or Virtual Commodities Handle Play Money or Valuable Goods Support for Experiments Instrument all Activity Export Data in Useful Formats for Analysis Apply Current S/W Development Approaches Flexible Support for UIs Scalability, Decentralization, Security Develop a Variety of Exchange Tools Support CDA and Call Markets Trade Predictions or Virtual Commodities Handle Play Money or Valuable Goods Support for Experiments Instrument all Activity Export Data in Useful Formats for Analysis Apply Current S/W Development Approaches Flexible Support for UIs Scalability, Decentralization, Security

10. © 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005 10 Who is CommerceNet? 10-Year Old Non-Profit with Money Mission is Promoting New Forms of E-Commerce Neutral Party that Convenes Interest Groups to Create Common Tools e.g. E-Commerce, XML, Audience Measurement Fosters Entrepreneurs Creating a New Software Research Lab Focus on Decentralization and E-Commerce zClassifieds, zMart, would use Zocalo 10-Year Old Non-Profit with Money Mission is Promoting New Forms of E-Commerce Neutral Party that Convenes Interest Groups to Create Common Tools e.g. E-Commerce, XML, Audience Measurement Fosters Entrepreneurs Creating a New Software Research Lab Focus on Decentralization and E-Commerce zClassifieds, zMart, would use Zocalo

11. © 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005 11 Project Phases First Step: Collect Requirements Support Experiments; Work with Experimenters Demonstrate Reuse Short Term: Expand Variety of Market Institutions Ensure Easy Configurability Medium Term: Deploy Internal Pilots to Businesses Develop support for Confederations of Markets Long Term: Deploy Public Markets with Partners First Step: Collect Requirements Support Experiments; Work with Experimenters Demonstrate Reuse Short Term: Expand Variety of Market Institutions Ensure Easy Configurability Medium Term: Deploy Internal Pilots to Businesses Develop support for Confederations of Markets Long Term: Deploy Public Markets with Partners

12. © 2005 Chris Hibbert DIMACS, 4 February 2005 12 Collaboration Possibilities Collaboration is one of CommerceNet’s Strengths We are Looking for Partners (S/W Developers, Experimenters, Entrepreneurs) Express Your Interest Describe Your Needs Tell us When You want to Deploy a Market White Paper available in February chris.hibbert@commerce.net http://zLab.Commerce.Net http://blog.Commerce.Net Collaboration is one of CommerceNet’s Strengths We are Looking for Partners (S/W Developers, Experimenters, Entrepreneurs) Express Your Interest Describe Your Needs Tell us When You want to Deploy a Market White Paper available in February chris.hibbert@commerce.net http://zLab.Commerce.Net http://blog.Commerce.Net