1. 1 Research Methodology EPH 7112 LECTURE 5: HYPOTHESIS PHASE

2. 2 Contents Hypothesis phase Specify solution Set Goals Define Factors Postulate Performance Metrics

3. 3 Hypothesis Phase Missing pieces of jigsaw puzzle Intelligent guess

4. 4 Hypothesis Phase Stems from the Greek word hupotithenai To suppose To speculate

5. 5 Hypothesis Phase Implies fundamental process of hypothesis To speculate about cause-effect relationship

6. 6 Hypothesis Phase Objective To propose a solution to problem To propose a set of goals To propose hypotheses for the solution To propose factors and performance metrics

7. 7 Hypothesis Phase Speculative knowledge

8. 8 Hypothesis Phase Steps Specify solution Set Goals Define factors Postulate Performance Metrics

9. 9 Specify Solution Solution to solve problem Experiments to test solution Effectiveness Conducted in Synthesis Phase

10. 10 Specify Solution Mechanism – the solution Procedure – how to apply solution Existing mechanism, known procedure New mechanism, new procedure Existing mechanism, new procedure New mechanism, known procedure

11. 11 Specify Solution New solution, specification include: Engineering drawings Schematics Recipes Flowcharts Pseudo code Algorithms Mathematics

12. 12 Specify Solution Existing solution Short description With citations, references Technical reports, journal, articles Manufacturer’s specifications

13. 13 Specify Solutions Several different solutions To pick the best solution Or more than one solution required

14. 14 Set Goals Specifies how well the solution works Goals achieved with experiments carried out in Synthesis Phase Experimental results used for conclusion in Validation Phase

15. 15 Set Goals Each goal will correspond to experiments in Synthesis Phase Experiment required to acquire knowledge Knowledge that characterizes the effectiveness of the solution for that problem

16. 16 Research Hypothesis A declarative sentence that asserts a desired, expected or possible conclusion of a goal

17. 17 Set Goals Task: Identify faster traffic Problem: Which Highway has higher traffic speed? Objective: To decide which highway has faster traffic that the other highways

18. 18 Set Goals Solution Mechanism: Measure traffic speed using pneumatic detectors Goal: To identify which highway has higher traffic speed

19. 19 Define Factors Knowledge propositions established Fixed parameters or condition Factors – variable parameters Varied to observe effect on the performance

20. 20 Define Factors 1 st Step – Make a complete list of all parameters and conditions Parameters – specification of system Condition – specification of the environment

21. 21 Define Factors 2 nd Step - From the complete list, choose the factors Choice must be justified Duration Realistic

22. 22 Define Factors 3 rd Step – What values should be assigned to the fixed parameters? Sometimes just common sense However, some values are not common

23. 23 Define Factors Operating Pilot (OP) point Informal search for values suitable for the governing proposition (parameters) search for range of values suitable for factors

24. 24 Define Factors Performance a function of joint values of parameters and factors Performance not same when different parameters or factors are changed Gradient Ascent (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steepest_ descent)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steepest_ descent

25. 25 Postulate Performance Metrics Performance metric is a postulate that transforms the results into measures of performance for drawing conclusions about the objective

26. 26 Postulate Performance Metrics Required to establish “what to measure” Finally used to conclude about the objective