1. Assessing Hurricane Intensity TEAM TIGERS HeatherEleanorMattAristaElizabeth This presentation funded by Halliburton

2. Is it all Hype? Mean hurricane intensity has not increased in a statistically significant way over time Mean hurricane intensity has not increased in a statistically significant way over time Occurrence of category 5 hurricanes in the past 15 years is due to many factors Occurrence of category 5 hurricanes in the past 15 years is due to many factors Measurement of hurricanes before 1940s unreliable Measurement of hurricanes before 1940s unreliable

3. X 2 value=.482627 within p=.05 therefore the null hypothesis is not rejected The linear regression shows a downward trend and chi-squared value also supports the null hypothesis which is that hurricane strength is not increasing

4. Hurricane Isabel storm front

5. Climate Models are not reliable: Los Ninos Example La Nina and El Nino affect sea surface temperature and hurricanes La Nina and El Nino affect sea surface temperature and hurricanes La Nina increases hurricane severity by warming the Atlantic Ocean La Nina increases hurricane severity by warming the Atlantic Ocean El Nino decreases hurricane severity since it cools the Atlantic Ocean El Nino decreases hurricane severity since it cools the Atlantic Ocean But really the data doesn’t statistically support it! But really the data doesn’t statistically support it! In years with category 5s, such as 2005, there is not necessarily an influence from Los Ninos In years with category 5s, such as 2005, there is not necessarily an influence from Los Ninos

6. El Nino and La Nina correlation value= -0.114789 Therefore there is no correlation to category 5s

7. Future Research Without a significant increase in mean hurricane intensity over time it is impossible to show a consistent correlation with other factors, like SST Without a significant increase in mean hurricane intensity over time it is impossible to show a consistent correlation with other factors, like SST Must measure changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions Must measure changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions

8. Historical frequency of high intensity hurricanes

9. Hurricane Fran

10. El Fin Our data shows that mean strength is not increasing Our data shows that mean strength is not increasing Represents uncertainty in climate and hurricane data manipulation Represents uncertainty in climate and hurricane data manipulation Trends in hurricane intensity needs to be measured for longer Trends in hurricane intensity needs to be measured for longer Not enough data Not enough data

11. Questions? GRRRREAT!