1. The future of cities: levers for creating smart, sustainable and inclusive growth Policy conclusions from the project Future Orientations for Cities (FOCI) Moritz Lennert, IGEAT, ULB Belgian ESPON Day, Bruxelles, October 5, 2011

2. Policy questions Sustainable growth: – Is city form important for sustainable growth ? – How sustainably are European cities developing ? Inclusive Growth: – How inclusive are our cities' economies ? Smart Growth: – How are cities preparing for smart growth ? – How are cities linking into the global economy ? Territorial Cohesion: – Where are the missing links of territorial cohesion ? Where are our cities headed ?

3. Is city form important for sustainable growth ? City form measured by a compacity index based on Urban Atlas data

4. How sustainably are European cities developing ?

5. How inclusive are our cities' economies ? - low qualified have higher unemployment rate across European cities - lower differences in Mediterranean countries - caveat: data before crisis

6. How inclusive are our cities' economies ? Significant ** at 0.01; * at 0.05 (1) Data come from perception survey or the district statistics of the Urban Audit and only concern core cities while GDP level is defined at the LUZ level Source: Eurostat, urban audit; Eurostat, Perception Survey; Eurostat, Regional Statistics. Correlation (R Pearson) between economic wealth (GDP/head) and some social indicators in European cities, in the years 2000.

7. How are cities preparing for smart growth ? Participation in Framework Programme projects in Nanotech, Biotech, Infotech and Cognitive sciences Based on CORDIS data1986-2000

8. How are cities linking into the global economy ? Based on a selection of all direct and indirect subsidiairies of the 3000 largest global companies from the Bureau Van Dijck ORBIS database European cities as gatekeepers, representatives or platforms in the global economy

9. Where are the missing links of territorial cohesion ? Links where best daily return accessibility is by rail (compared to air) between a selected list of metropolitan areas between 5h and 23h (time-table based)

10. Where are the missing links of territorial cohesion ? Cities centralities in the network of multinational firms with a distance below 100km Based on a selection of all direct and indirect subsidiairies of the 3000 largest global companies from the Bureau Van Dijck ORBIS database

11. Where are our cities headed ? Starting postulate: most of what will happen to cities in the future is decided at other scales Two scenario hypotheses: – “Green Economy”: swift crisis recovery at global scale with a European focus on the green economy and new energy paradigm – “Enhancing the European potential”: no swift recovery at global scale with a European focus on cohesion, reinforcement of European industries and regional potentials

12. Where are our cities headed ? Summary of territorial impacts of the two scenarios

13. Thank you ! Moritz Lennert IGEAT – ULB moritz.lennert @ ulb.ac.be http://www.espon.eu/