1. World commodity prices 2004 - 2005 AIECE Spring Meeting Kiel, May 6 2004

2. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004 2 Commodity markets are thriving and prices are soaring…

3. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004 3

4. 4

5. 5 …as activity and trade recover

6. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004 6 Latest market developments Surge in raw materials prices…  HWWA overall index up 72% between December 2001 (latest trough) and April 2004  Industrial commodities and foodstuffs have surged more than energy prices …due to the Chinese “heat wave”…  China, the world’s workshop, was in 2003 the world’s largest consumer of coal, absorbing 40% of total world production steel and nickel, absorbing 25% of total world production aluminium, absorbing 19% of total world production  as natural resources become scarcer or uncompetitive in China …highlighting capacity constraints worldwide  Lack of investment in basic industries: overinvestment in ICT to the expense of basic industries  Prices of raw materials were until recently quite low on an historical perspective, too low to boost investment

7. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004 7 Where China matters Example of coal prices

8. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004 8 Where China matters Example of nickel prices

9. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004 9 Prices of raw industrial materials on a longer term perspective

10. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004 10 AIECE Commodity Group forecasts Factors which could push raw material prices down  In Europe: strong euro  Seasonnal factors (agricultural commodities) Factors sustaining raw material prices  Strong growth expected in industrial demand in Asia, with China more and more decisive for prices  Supply deficit even on markets believed to be structurally in excess supply (steel for example)  Investment from pension funds away from bourses to commodity markets (speculation on the London Metal Exchange) The environment for European raw materials purchasers has deteriorated sensibly, despite a strong euro; no significant downturn is expected in prices before 2006.

11. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004 11 AIECE Commodity Group forecasts

12. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004 12 AIECE Commodity Group forecasts

13. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004 13 AIECE Commodity Group forecasts

14. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004 14 AIECE Commodity Group forecasts Aggregate prices

15. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004 15 AIECE Commodity Group forecasts Energy prices

16. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004 16 AIECE Commodity Group forecasts Non-ferrous metals prices

17. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004 17 AIECE Commodity Group forecasts Ferrous metals prices

18. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004 18 AIECE Commodity Group forecasts Agricultural prices

19. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004 19 AIECE Commodity Group forecasts Food and beverages prices

20. World commodity prices 2004 - 2005 AIECE Spring Meeting Kiel, May 6 2004