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Challenges of the Soymeal Trade 23 June 2009, Harkány Zsolt Sebők AGP Magyarország Kft.

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Presentation on theme: "Challenges of the Soymeal Trade 23 June 2009, Harkány Zsolt Sebők AGP Magyarország Kft."— Presentation transcript:

1 Challenges of the Soymeal Trade 23 June 2009, Harkány Zsolt Sebők AGP Magyarország Kft.

2 Typical Ingredients of Forages Cereal Corn Wheat Barley Triticale Protein Carriers Extruded soymeal Extruded rape meal Extruded sunflower meal Fishmeal Potato protein Full-fat soymeal

3 Forage Composition for Broiler Chicken Feeding Starter 0,5 kg/Pcs Grower 1,5 kg/Pcs Finisher 2,0 kg/Pcs IngredientsFt/kg%% Corn35,0058,062,066,5 Soymeal (48%) 110,0035,031,026,0 Sunflower Oil180,002,53,54,5 PAK21/NN255,004,5 PAKF22/M250,00 3,5 PAKF23225,00 3,0 In Total 100,0 PriceFt/kg74,78 Ft70,85 Ft66,73 Ft Raw Protein% 21,9220,2418,23 Lysine% 1,301,131,00 Methionine% 0,600,530,50 Raw Fat% 5,376,447,50 Calcium% 0,920,800,72 Phosphor% 0,720,540,49 Sodium% 0,15 Forage Need per 1000 Pcs of Broiler Chicken IngredientsFt/kgKgFt Corn 35,-2 55089 250 Soymeal (48%) 110,-1 160127 600 Sunflower Oil 180,-15527 900 PAK21/NN 255,-235 738 PAKF22/M 250,-5313 125 PAKF23 225,-6013 500 In Total 4 000277 113

4 Broiler Feeding Ingredient Composition

5 Soybean Output in 2009 The World’s Soybean Output 2009 million tons% USA87,7035,84 Brazil62,0025,34 Argentina34,0013,89 In Total183,7075,07 World244,70100,00

6 The World's Soybean Stock Usage Changes in the World’s Soybean Stock (million tons) 2006- 2007 2007- 2008 2008- 2009 2009- 2010 2008- 2009 2009- 2010 Start Stock53,162,753,142,652,941,9 Crop237,4221,1212,8241,7210,9241,7 Usage225,5229,5222,5231,5221,8231,6 End Stock62,753,142,651,941,951,0 Stock Usage27,823,119,122,418,922,0

7 Soybean Stock Usage in the USA May 2009 USDAJune 2009 USDA 2006- 2007 2007- 2008 2008- 2009 2009- 2010 Production Areamill. ha30,7326,3330,8130,93 Average Cropt/ha2,892,802,662,86 Start Stockmill t12,2215,625,583,542,99 Cropmill t87,0172,8680,5386,96 Importmill t0,240,270,33 In Totalmill t99,4788,7586,4490,8290,27 Processingmill t49,2149,0244,6345,59 Exportmill t30,3731,6033,7534,29 Seedsmill t2,182,532,562,50 Othermill t2,100,001,992,15 Usage In Totalmill t83,8583,1782,9084,56 End Stockmill t15,625,583,546,265,71 Stock Usage%18,66,74,37,406,8

8 The World’s Soybean Trade in 2008/2009 (million tons) ExportImport Argentina10,0Europe13,5 Brazil25,3North America4,4 USA32,6South America2,6 Canada1,9Asia, The Far East49,1 China0,5Asia, The Middle East2,8 Paraguay2,4Africa1,5 Other1,6Other Unknown0,4 World In Total74,3Word In Total74,3 Out of this China38,0 EU13,0

9 The World’s Soybean Trade

10 The World’s Soymeal Trade In 2008/2009 - 52,8 million tons ExportImport Argentina24,0Europe23,3 Brazil12,5North America4,7 USA7,6South America3,7 Canada5,0Asia, The Far East14,3 China0,6Asia, The Middle East2,9 Paraguay1,2Africa2,7 Other0,4Other Unknown1,2 World In Total1,5Word In Total Argentina52,8Out of this52,8 EU22,8

11 The World’s Soymeal Trade

12 Soymeal Trade in Hungary Period ImportExport Quantity (tons) 2000.669 119 2001.771 641 2002.846 446 2003.820 1593 266 2004.636 26031 411 2005.585 93520 657 2006.673 42129 966 2007.813 22532 481 2008.733 17429 146

13 Soymeal Import and Export In Hungary

14 Soymeal Import at the beginning of this Year Soymeal Import in Hungary (tons) PeriodImport January 200869 772 January 200945 584 February 200851 222 February 200936 623

15 Important Issues of the Soymeal Trade Quality Price, Price-Setting Logistics Financing

16 Quality and GMO Ingredients of the Hipro and II.class Brazil soymeal Hipro II. class Solids%88,088,0 Raw Protein %48,046,0 ME poultryMJ/kg10,69,8 DE porkMJ/kg15,414,6 ME porkMJ/kg14,213,5 Raw Fibre%3,57,0 Raw Fat%1,41,4 Lysine%2,852,58 Methionine%0,640,57 Methionine +Cistine1,261,17 (source: American Soybean Association)

17 Factors that affect Soymeal Price The base for the price setting is always the price at Chicago Board of Trade (www.cbot.com) Supply Production Area Output, weather Strike Oil price Demand Livestock Animal Health Situation China’s Market Behaviour Market Situation of Substitutes Money Funds Transfer Oil price River Shipping Road Transport Rate of Exchange Duty

18 www.cbot.com

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21 Hungary’s Soymeal Import Soymeal ImportRiver Import tons % 2002.846 446831 00998,18 2003.820 159731 90389,24 2006.673 421310 44646,10 2007.813 225168 39620,71 2008.733 174177 12024,16

22 Financing River Import takes too long Extension of payment deadlines Payment willing and ability Less Credit Sources available and these became more expensive In case of bonds in HUF double financing

23 Thank You for Your Attention! Sources: AKI USDA Report Cereal Association ASA FVM KSH GKM


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