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Future coral reef habitat marginality: temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin John Guinotte, J. A. Kleypas, R.W. Buddemeier.

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Presentation on theme: "Future coral reef habitat marginality: temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin John Guinotte, J. A. Kleypas, R.W. Buddemeier."— Presentation transcript:

1 Future coral reef habitat marginality: temporal and spatial effects of climate change in the Pacific basin John Guinotte, J. A. Kleypas, R.W. Buddemeier Preview of observed and modeled maximum monthly SST values: Observed, Reynolds max monthly SST averaged over the decades 1982-1991 and 1992-2001 Modeled, NCAR coupled GCM generating values and differences for an 1870 preindustrial control run and decadal averages for 2000-2009, 2010-2019, 2020-2029, 2030-2039, 2040-2049, 2050-2059, 2060-2069. Displayed, model differences using the 82-91 Reynolds as the base

2 Figure 1. Emission Scenario Models (IPCC 2000) for the time course of atmospheric CO 2. Scenario B2 was used for the calculations presented in this paper

3 Figure 2a. Reynolds maximum monthly SST 1982-1991 Figure 2b. Reynolds maximum monthly SST 1992-2001

4 Figure 2c. 2000-2009 projected maximum monthly SST (pCO2=375) Figure 2d. 2010-2019 projected maximum monthly SST (pCO2=387)

5 Figure 2e. 2020-2029 projected maximum monthly SST (pCO2=415) Figure 2f. 2030-2039 projected maximum monthly SST (pCO2=437)

6 Figure 2g. 2040-2049 projected maximum monthly SST (pCO2=465) Figure 2h. 2050-2059 projected maximum monthly SST (pCO2=492)

7 Figure 2e. 2060-2069 projected maximum monthly SST (pCO2=517)

8 Figure 3a. Preindustrial aragonite saturation state (pCO2=280) Figure 3b. 2000-2009 aragonite saturation state (pCO2=375)

9 Figure 3c. 2010-2019 aragonite saturation state (pCO2=387) Figure 3d. 2020-2029 aragonite saturation state (pCO2=415)

10 Figure 3e. 2030-2039 aragonite saturation state (pCO2=437) Figure 3f. 2040-2049 aragonite saturation state (pCO2=465)

11 Figure 3g. 2050-2059 aragonite saturation state (pCO2=492) Figure 3h. 2060-2069 aragonite saturation state (pCO2=517)

12 Figure 4a. Preindustrial marginality risk and 2060-2069 projected expansion of 18.4 deg isotherm in green. Figure 4b. 2000-2009 projected marginality risk (pCO2=375)

13 Figure 4c. 2010-2019 projected marginality risk (pCO2=387) Figure 4d. 2020-2029 projected marginality risk (pCO2=415)

14 Figure 4e. 2030-2039 projected marginality risk (pCO2=437) Figure 4f. 2040-2049 projected marginality risk (pCO2=465)

15 Figure 4g. 2050-2059 projected marginality risk (pCO2=492) Figure 4e. 2060-2069 projected marginality risk (pCO2=517)

16 Global clines in species richness of corals (Roberts et al. 2002)

17 Generic richness of hermatypic corals. Contours show max number of genera likely to be found. (Veron, 1986)

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