1. Applied Environmental Decision Analysis A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility smart science for wise decisions www.aeda.edu.au  Hugh Possingham FAA Director of The Ecology Centre The University of Queensland Australia What is science-based conservation? Stories from down under Director of AEDA – www.aeda.edu.auwww.aeda.edu.au the ecology centre university of queensland australia www.uq.edu.au/spatialecology h.possingham@uq.edu.au

2. Applied Environmental Decision Analysis A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility smart science for wise decisions www.aeda.edu.au  Spatial Ecology Lab at UQ: quantitative ecologists Kerrie Wilson Josie Carwardine Liana Joseph Michael Bode +Marissa McBride+ many others

3. Applied Environmental Decision Analysis A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility smart science for wise decisions www.aeda.edu.au  Story 1 Leadbeater’s possum Dear David and Hugh, Please tell us how to save Leadbeater’s possum in Victoria’s mountain ash forest. It is our only endemic mammal. Victorian government 1993

4. Applied Environmental Decision Analysis A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility smart science for wise decisions www.aeda.edu.au  The problem: Save an endangered animal that likes old trees in Australia’s most valuable forests Method: A huge messy Population Viability Analysis Lessons: What is viable? Science has no answer. All we could do is deliver the best option within the context of the socio-economic constraints – it worked. Several papers eg: Lindenmayer, D.W. and Possingham, H. P. 1996. Ranking conservation and timber management options for Leadbeater's Possum in southeastern Australia using Population Viability Analysis. Conservation Biology 10:235-251.

5. Applied Environmental Decision Analysis A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility smart science for wise decisions www.aeda.edu.au  Story 2 Australian biodiversity priorities Dear Steve and Hugh, given limited resources what should I do now to minimise Australia’s net loss of biodiversity over the next 100 years, yours faithfully, John Howard Prime Minister of Australia, 2001

6. Applied Environmental Decision Analysis A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility smart science for wise decisions www.aeda.edu.au  The approach: Species saved per $ spent List management options Species saved – Convert birds or plants to all species – 1 bird = 20 plants, one plant = 20 other species Political feasibility Collateral benefit (greenhouse gas) See “Setting biodiversity priorities” http://www.dest.gov.au/science/pmseic/meetings/8thmeeting.ht m http://www.dest.gov.au/science/pmseic/meetings/8thmeeting.ht m

7. Applied Environmental Decision Analysis A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility smart science for wise decisions www.aeda.edu.au  FactorValue No. of species saved5,280 Area2,270,400 ha Cost/ha$88 Total cost$200m No. species saved/$1m26 Collateral benefit$4,008m Collateral benefit/total cost20 Prevent broadscale clearing of high biodiversity areas in QLD

8. Applied Environmental Decision Analysis A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility smart science for wise decisions www.aeda.edu.au  Eradicate new outbreaks of naturalised plant species with weedy potential FactorValue No. of species saved6,000 Area670m ha Cost/ha$0.11 Total cost$72m No. species saved/$1m83 Collateral benefit$100m Collateral benefit/total cost1.4

9. Applied Environmental Decision Analysis A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility smart science for wise decisions www.aeda.edu.au  Process List the options – Stop land clearing in QLD – Salinity management in key catchments in WA – Biocontrol of major weeds – Early eradication, better quarantine Work out cost and species saved Leave collateral benefits as a separate currency Synthesise, rank and sell to PM and cabinet Did it work?

10. Applied Environmental Decision Analysis A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility smart science for wise decisions www.aeda.edu.au  Lessons from PMSEIC: The science was largely expert opinion Success was in the packaging in an economic and social framework Conservation scientists are invariably unable to frame their work in a socio-political context Uses a simple metric (which someone living here would have understood 3000+ years ago) vs a complex analysis

11. Applied Environmental Decision Analysis A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility smart science for wise decisions www.aeda.edu.au  Lessons from PMSEIC: The science was largely expert opinion Success was in the packaging in an economic and social framework Conservation scientists are invariably unable to frame their work in a socio-political context Uses a simple metric (which someone living here would have understood 3000+ years ago) vs a complex analysis

12. Applied Environmental Decision Analysis A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility smart science for wise decisions www.aeda.edu.au  Story 3 GBR rezoning Dear Bob and Hugh, We have all this biological data, could you design us a new marine park Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (Jon Day) 1998

13. Applied Environmental Decision Analysis A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility smart science for wise decisions www.aeda.edu.au 

14. Applied Environmental Decision Analysis A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility smart science for wise decisions www.aeda.edu.au  Science: The problem is already well defined in the terrestrial world – but marine world completely different? Politics: GBRMPA already had authority over whole region, but fishing lobby powerful Big unresolved question: how much is enough and the burden of proof Technical solution: Enter Marxan – deliver a target 20% for minimum impact. Poorly used, but delivered an outcome. http://www.uq.edu.au/marxan/ http://www.uq.edu.au/marxan/

15. Applied Environmental Decision Analysis A Commonwealth Environmental Research Facility smart science for wise decisions www.aeda.edu.au  Quick access to AEDA information Homepage: www.aeda.edu.auwww.aeda.edu.au Publications: www.aeda.edu.au/publicationswww.aeda.edu.au/publications Decision Point: www.aeda.edu.au/newswww.aeda.edu.au/news Search Decision Point for articles that affect you: www.aeda.edu.au/dpoint-search www.aeda.edu.au/dpoint-search Search AEDA for projects that affect your area: www.aeda.edu.au/aeda_projects www.aeda.edu.au/aeda_projects