1. In memory of Jill Nakawatase

2. Beating the standard for heat, Seattle style By Eric Sorensen Seattle Times staff reporter Seventy degrees and no relief in sight! The city with a national reputation for drizzly dreariness notched a record yesterday — 50 consecutive days with a high temperature of 70 or warmer. Europe buckling under heat wave By Sebastian Rotella Los Angeles Times MADRID, Spain — Summer vacation felt more like an inferno than an idyll in Europe yesterday as a heat wave stoked wildfires across the south and spiked record- high temperatures as far north as Britain. Record-breaking summer may be harbinger of planet warming up CRAIG BROWN It was a month that brought the hottest temperatures in the UK since records began, but also forest fires across Europe, a surge in heat- related deaths and even an appeal from the Pope to "grant the thirsty earth the coolness of rain". In the news...

3. "I’ve had some briefings recently, and I’m becoming more convinced that the science proves there’s global warming" (Washington Times, May 21, 1999).

4. Climate Change Impacts on the Pacific Northwest Jisao 1999

5. How might forests respond? From Zolbrod and Peterson (1999) Olympic Mountains, WA

6. Spatial and temporal variability in tree growth-climate relationships in the Olympic Mountains, Washington

7. Past dendroecological studies Altitudinal gradient Single species Influence of mesoclimate Ettl and Peterson (1995) Olympic Peninsula

8. Study design Multiple species, size classes Complete altitudinal gradient Wide array of aspects Different climatic regimes Temporal variability

9. Study site Washington

10. Study questions What are the spatial and temporal patterns of growth variability? Is climate a driving factor of observed growth variability? Which climatic variables limit tree growth? How might growth respond to future climate?

11. Methods Data collection Core processing Chronology development Descriptive statistics Factor analysis Climate-growth correlations

12. Methods: Data collection Hoh River watershed Dungeness River watershed

13. Methods: Core processing Mounted and sanded Crossdated using skeleton plots Verified with COFECHA Ringwidths measured Quality control Chronology development Descriptive statistics Factor analysis Climate-growth correlations Data collection Core processing

14. Methods: Chronology development Ring widths diameter increments D t-1 = [D t – (B s * D t )] – R t 1 –B s Diameter increment basal area increment BAI = π * (D t /2) 2 – π * (D t-1 /2) 2 Standardization Factor analysis Climate-growth correlations Data collection Core processing Descriptive statistics Chronology development

15. Methods: Chronology development

16. Methods: Descriptive statistics Mean BAI Intra/intersite correlation Mean sensitivity Common variance Slope Autoregressive model order Factor analysis Climate-growth correlations Data collection Core processing Chronology development Descriptive statistics

17. Methods: Factor analysis Climate-growth correlations Data collection Core processing Chronology development Descriptive statistics Factor analysis

18. Methods: Factor analysis  Periods 1925-1946, 1947-1976, and 1977- 2000 analyzed Climate-growth correlations Data collection Core processing Chronology development Descriptive statistics Factor analysis

19. Methods: Climate-growth correlations Climate Data: Divisional temperature and precipitation data –Annual (Oct-Sept) and seasonal (June-Sept and Oct-May) Spring snowpack depth Pacific Decadal Oscillation PDSI All variables lagged 1 and 2 years Data collection Core processing Chronology development Descriptive statistics Factor analysis Climate-growth correlations

20. Pearson correlation coefficients: –Factor scores and individual site chronologies Correlations significant: –Coefficient (α<0.05) –Consistent among similar sites Methods: Climate-growth correlations Data collection Core processing Chronology development Descriptive statistics Factor analysis Climate-growth correlations

21. Results Descriptive statistics Factor analysis Climate correlations

22. Results: Descriptive statistics

25. Results: Descriptive statistics Intersite correlation Average correlation coefficient

26. Results: Factor analysis Standardized growth index 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

27. Results: Factor analysis Temporal stability Spatial coherence

28. Results: Climate correlations Factor 1 Positive: PDSI, summer precipitation, winter temperature Factor 1 scores PDSI 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Standardized growth index

29. Results: Climate correlations Factor 2 Positive: summer temperature, previous year snowpack, previous year precipitation Negative: annual and winter precipitation, spring snowpack, PDSI 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Standardized growth index Factor 2 scores Winter precipitation

30. Results: Climate correlations Factor 3 No relationship with interannual climatic variability Negative: PDO and summer temperature at alternate time step 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Standardized growth index Factor 3 scores PDO

31. Results: Site-climate correlations Dungeness River watershed Correlation coefficient Increasing elevation

32. Results: Site-climate correlations Dungeness River watershed Increasing elevation Correlation coefficient

33. Results: Site-climate correlations Hoh River watershed Correlation coefficient Increasing elevation

34. Results: Site-climate correlations Hoh River watershed Correlation coefficient Increasing elevation

35. Discussion Growth-limiting factors Response to future climatic scenarios Spatial scale Future applications

36. Discussion: Growth-limiting factors Dungeness watershed Summer precipitation Previous year summer precipitation PDSI Previous year summer temperature Previous year summer precipitation Summer temperature Previous year summer temperature Summer soil moisture deficit

37. Discussion: Growth-limiting factors Dungeness watershed Spring snowpack Winter temperature Decreased spring runoff = less summer moisture ??? Earlier growing season with more favorable growing conditions

38. Discussion: Growth-limiting factors High elevation Hoh watershed Annual, winter precipitation PDSI Spring snowpack Annual, summer temperature Winter and spring snowpack Growing season length

39. Discussion: Growth-limiting factors High elevation Hoh watershed Previous year precipitation Previous year snowpack Previous year PDSI Standardized index Low to mid snowpack/ precipitation years follow high snowpack/precipitation years Years with heavy snow = short growing season - Accumulation of carbohydrate reserves

40. Discussion: Growth-limiting factors Low elevation Hoh watershed Picea sitchensis/Tsuga heterophylla PDO and summer temperature Summer soil moisture (Low-frequency) Variable not considered (solar radiation)

41. Response to future climatic scenarios By the 2050’s... +5.3 F +5% -33% temperature precipitation snowdepth

42. Response to future climate scenarios: Dungeness watershed Summer temperature Summer precipitation Productivity Summer temperature Productivity Summer temperature Summer precipitation Productivity ? )

43. Response to future climate scenarios: Hoh watershed snowdepth temperature Productivity summer temperatureProductivity Insensitive to climatic variability Minimal change

44. Variation at multiple spatial scales High Low Altitudinal gradient Growing season length Summer moisture deficit Climatic regime Wet, maritimeDry, continental W NE Insensitive Summer precipitation Snowpack depth Summer temperature

45. Future applications Modeling Dendroecological studies Fine-scale spatial variability

46. Future applications Resource managers 1)Sensitive areas 2)Management strategies Timber productivity Planting tolerant species Mixed species stands Genotypes Maintain healthy stands Non-park lands Carbon storage Structural retention Longer rotations Protecting of mature forests National park lands Biodiversity Connectivity Well-distributed populations Reserves Genotypes Protecting mature forests Carbon storage

47. Summary: forest resources and climate Regional-scale studies Mountain hemlock, subalpine fir (complete) Douglas-fir (ongoing) Subregional-scale studies Olympic Mountains – All forest types (complete) North Cascade Range - All forest types (complete) - Paleoecology (complete) - Douglas-fir, lodgepole pine (nearly complete) Modeling Olympic Mountains (complete) CLIMET transect (ongoing) Fire North Cascades paleo fire (complete) Washington (some complete, some ongoing) Western U.S. (some complete, some ongoing)

48. Update on CIG Forest Resources CIG accomplishments Lots of content added to CIG web site New fact sheets Jeremy Littell dissertation work on Douglas-fir growth Forthcoming Gedalof et al. publications Program accomplishments 5-year grant from USGS – Western Mountain Initiative (http://www.cfr.washington.edu/research.fme/wmi) Recent and forthcoming publications Upcoming Mountain Climate Sciences Symposium

49. THANK YOU!