1. The Three Theoretical Models for Turkish accession Prof.Dr.MELTEM MUFTULER-BAC* Sabanci University December 29 2010 Presentation at Center for European Studies, METU *http://myweb.sabanciuniv.edu/muftuler

2. KEY DATES September 12, 1963-Association Agreement September 12, 1963-Association Agreement November 23, 1970-Additional Protocol November 23, 1970-Additional Protocol April 14, 1987-Application for full membership April 14, 1987-Application for full membership December 17, 1989-Commission Opinion December 17, 1989-Commission Opinion March 6, 1995-Customs Union March 6, 1995-Customs Union December 10, 1999-The Helsinki summit and Turkey’s Candidacy December 10, 1999-The Helsinki summit and Turkey’s Candidacy October 3, 2005-accession negotiations begin October 3, 2005-accession negotiations begin

3. Turkey’s membership October 2004-Commission recommend accession negotiations October 2004-Commission recommend accession negotiations December 2004-The European Council based on the Commission recommendation decided on opening negotiations December 2004-The European Council based on the Commission recommendation decided on opening negotiations October 3, 2005: The GAC opened accession negotiations with Turkey with the adoption of the Negotiations Framework October 3, 2005: The GAC opened accession negotiations with Turkey with the adoption of the Negotiations Framework

4. Screening process The analytical examination of the Turkish ability to adopt the EU’s acquis communaitaire divided into 35 Chapters The analytical examination of the Turkish ability to adopt the EU’s acquis communaitaire divided into 35 Chapters Screening began in October 2005- completed in October 2006 Screening began in October 2005- completed in October 2006 At the end of the screening process, there is a screening report for every chapter – needs to be approved unanimously in the Council. At the end of the screening process, there is a screening report for every chapter – needs to be approved unanimously in the Council.

5. Negotiations misleading as a term-negotiations are over the time period and the financial compensation that the candidate requests misleading as a term-negotiations are over the time period and the financial compensation that the candidate requests Negotiations could last 10-15 years Negotiations could last 10-15 years Final Accession Treaty- contains the articles decided upon at every round and is subject to approval in the Council, by the EP and all the member states. Final Accession Treaty- contains the articles decided upon at every round and is subject to approval in the Council, by the EP and all the member states.

6. Accession Negotiations June 2006-Chapter on Science and Research opened and provisionally closed June 2006-Chapter on Science and Research opened and provisionally closed December 2006- European Council suspended negotiations for 8 chapters- incl.agriculture December 2006- European Council suspended negotiations for 8 chapters- incl.agriculture March 2007-Chapter on Industry and Enterprise Policy opened for negotiations March 2007-Chapter on Industry and Enterprise Policy opened for negotiations June 2007- two more chapters opened for negotiations-Chapter on Statistics and Chapter on Financial Control June 2007- two more chapters opened for negotiations-Chapter on Statistics and Chapter on Financial Control December 2007- two more chapters open- Chapter on Consumer and Health protection and Chapter on Trans-European networks December 2007- two more chapters open- Chapter on Consumer and Health protection and Chapter on Trans-European networks June 2008: two more chapters: Company Law and Intellectual Property are opened. June 2008: two more chapters: Company Law and Intellectual Property are opened. December 2008: two more chapters: Free movement of Capital and Media Worlds opened. December 2008: two more chapters: Free movement of Capital and Media Worlds opened. June 2009: one more chapters-Taxation opened. June 2009: one more chapters-Taxation opened. December 2009: Chapter on Environment opened December 2009: Chapter on Environment opened June 2010:Chapter on Food Safety, Veterinary & Phytosanitary Policy opened June 2010:Chapter on Food Safety, Veterinary & Phytosanitary Policy opened 13 chapters opened. 13 chapters opened.

7. Chapters that are blocked 2006 December, the European Council froze negotiations on 8 chapters (incl.agriculture) 2006 December, the European Council froze negotiations on 8 chapters (incl.agriculture) France blocks financial and budgetary affairs, regional policy, economic and financial policy. France blocks financial and budgetary affairs, regional policy, economic and financial policy. Cyprus blocks chapters on energy, judicial rights, justice, freedom and society, foreign security and defense policy, freedom of movement of workers, education and culture. Cyprus blocks chapters on energy, judicial rights, justice, freedom and society, foreign security and defense policy, freedom of movement of workers, education and culture. 17 chapters are frozen as of November 2010. 17 chapters are frozen as of November 2010. Chapters 34 and 35 cannot be negotiatied so that leaves only 3 chapters that could be opened-Social Policy, Public procurement, and competition policy. Chapters 34 and 35 cannot be negotiatied so that leaves only 3 chapters that could be opened-Social Policy, Public procurement, and competition policy.

8. Utility driven perspectives Proposition I: The material benefits and costs of Turkey’s membership will determine Turkey’s accession to the EU. Proposition I: The material benefits and costs of Turkey’s membership will determine Turkey’s accession to the EU. Security related costs/benefits Security related costs/benefits Economy related costs/benefits Economy related costs/benefits Institutional balances in the EU Institutional balances in the EU

9. Norm Driven perspectives Proposition II: Perceptions of its Europeanness will determine Turkey’s accession to the EU Proposition II: Perceptions of its Europeanness will determine Turkey’s accession to the EU EU governments and the public would perceive costs and benefits associated with specific countries differently when these candidates are seen as part of the larger European identity. EU governments and the public would perceive costs and benefits associated with specific countries differently when these candidates are seen as part of the larger European identity.

10. Rights Driven perspectives Proposition III: The internal dynamics of the EU will determine Turkey’s accession to the EU as a full member. Proposition III: The internal dynamics of the EU will determine Turkey’s accession to the EU as a full member. The end of ‘permissive consensus’ The end of ‘permissive consensus’ The elite-public divide over the process of integration The elite-public divide over the process of integration

11. Member state preferences Security related concerns Security related concerns Economic related concerns Economic related concerns Loss of structural funds Loss of structural funds Concerns over deepening vs.widening Concerns over deepening vs.widening Turkey’s population Turkey’s population Culture and identity concerns Culture and identity concerns

12. Turkey’s challenges to the EU Deepening and developing 2 nd pillar Deepening and developing 2 nd pillar Population-currently 71 million, projected to be 82 million by 2015 Population-currently 71 million, projected to be 82 million by 2015 Directly related to that, voting weight of Turkey Directly related to that, voting weight of Turkey Strain on the budget Strain on the budget Culture and identity Culture and identity

13. Obstacles for the near future Cyprus-end is near for chapters that can be opened-a new deal for 2011? Cyprus-end is near for chapters that can be opened-a new deal for 2011? Visa facilitation regime or visa liberalization-currently negotiations are unfolding Visa facilitation regime or visa liberalization-currently negotiations are unfolding European Defense Agency- European Defense Agency- The overall crisis in Europe and its impact on the EU’s attractiveness The overall crisis in Europe and its impact on the EU’s attractiveness