1. STRATEGIES FOR RESEARCH Approaching the Paper Assignment

2. OUTLINE Part I: Basic Steps Key Steps in Research Defining a Topic Example: Political Radicalism Expressing the Question in Terms of Variables Imagining Potential Explanations Framing Hypotheses Clarifying the Model From Concept to Measurement

3. OUTLINE (cont.) Testing Hypotheses Challenges, Technical and Analytical Postscript: On Skewness Part II: What You Will Do in Your Paper!

4. Key Steps in Research 1.Observing variation in a variable, and proposing a preliminary explanation 2.Stating a hypothesis 3.Testing the hypothesis

5. Defining a Topic General Theme: Political radicalism On definition: What do we mean by “radicalism”? General Question: What are the sources of political radicalism? Specific Question: Why is there more political radicalism in some societies (or locales) than in others? Or, in other words, what explains variation (or variance) in levels of political radicalism in societies around the world?

6. Expressing the Question in Terms of Variables Radicalism = “dependent variable” = Y Source or cause or explanation = “independent variable” = X Conceptualization: Y = f(X) or, with greater complexity, Y = f(X 1 + X 2 + X 3 ….. X k )

7. Imagining Potential Explanations 1.Poverty 2.Inequality 3.Fundamentalist religious indoctrination 4.Colonial suppression 5.Loss of privileged status

8. Framing Hypotheses In comparing [units of analysis], those having [one value on the independent variable] will be more likely to have [one value on the dependent variable] than will those having [a different value on the independent variable]. Or, The greater (or lesser) the value of X, the greater (or lesser) the value of Y.

9. Clarifying the Model: Inequality might lead to rage, which in turn leads to radicalism Poverty might affect calculations of risk (since poor people have less to lose than others), and that calculation might bolster willingness to engage in radical action Thus “rage” and “risk calculation” would constitute intervening variables

10. From Concept to Measurement— The Problem of Operationalization Political radicalism: demonstrations, riots, assassinations… (Y) Plausible independent variables: poverty (X 1 ) inequality (X 2 ) colonial suppression (X 3 ) extremist indoctrination (X 4 ) loss of privileged status (X 5 ) authoritarian repression (X 6 ) Question: How to find indicators that are reliable and valid?

11. The Technical Challenge Analyzing variation in levels of political radicalism— in other words, discerning a pattern within the variance Sample hypothesis: The higher the level of poverty (X), the greater the degree of political radicalism (Y) Empirical question: Is there covariance between these variables? Any kind of systematic relationship? Do they vary together? If so, to what degree?

12. The Analytical Challenge(s) 1.Establishing cause-and-effect 2.Considering unobserved (lurking) variables— the “What else?” question 1.Assessing roles of other X variables 2.Inventing alternative explanations for any observed relationship (how might we interpret a positive relationship between poverty and radicalism?)

13. Looking Ahead and Beyond…. 1.What if all bivariate relationships support the the separate hypotheses? What then? 2.Check relationships among the independent variables: Are they measuring different things? Or the same? 3.Can we identify the relationship between Y and, say, X 1, while controlling for the effects of X 2 and X 3 ?

14. YOUR PROJECTS: DATASETS NES2000.sav States.sav World.sav

15. GETTING STARTED Scan data set(s) Select a dependent variable (Y) Determine its level of measurement Assess variation Obtain (and present) univariate descriptive statistics Select 2+ potential independent variables (X 1 … X k ) Check levels of measurement, variation, and (ideally) explore descriptive statistics on each Explain concepts and ideas at each step

16. INTRODUCTION Why is your question important? Concepts and definitions [see Pollack page 10] STATEMENT OF HYPOTHESES Operationalization of concepts Identification of dependent, independent, intervening variables Formal hypotheses [see Pollack pp. 33-37 plus lecture notes] PRESENTATION OF VARIABLES Levels of measurement Univariate descriptive statistics [including histograms and/or bar grams, measures of central tendency and dispersion]

17. BIVARIATE RELATIONSHIPS Assess form, strength, and “significance” of relationship Crosstabulation: tables with frequencies, percentages, appropriate measures of association, chi-square statistic Regression: Each independent variable with dependent variable: full equation with coefficients, correlation, scatterplot with regression line, r-squared values, F-statistic and standard errors MULTIVARIATE RELATIONSHIPS Cross-tabulation or multiple regression Examine difference(s) from bivariate results

18. CONCLUSIONS Accept or reject null hypotheses Confirm, reject, or modify hypotheses Provide alternative explanations for findings Indicate which explanation you think is most appropriate Describe possible avenues for further research OVERALL LENGTH: 4-6 pages, plus tables and graphs