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Hydrologic Outlook for the Pacific Northwest in Water Year 2008 Andy Wood Xiaodong Zeng and George Thomas Alan Hamlet and Dennis Lettenmaier Dept. of Civil.

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Presentation on theme: "Hydrologic Outlook for the Pacific Northwest in Water Year 2008 Andy Wood Xiaodong Zeng and George Thomas Alan Hamlet and Dennis Lettenmaier Dept. of Civil."— Presentation transcript:

1 Hydrologic Outlook for the Pacific Northwest in Water Year 2008 Andy Wood Xiaodong Zeng and George Thomas Alan Hamlet and Dennis Lettenmaier Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering for Climate and Water Resource Forecasts for the 2008 Water Year UW Climate Impacts Group October 17, 2007, Boise, ID

2 Presentation Outline 1. Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting System 2. Water Year 2007 Discussion and 2008 Outlook

3 Introduction UW Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast System www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/westwide/ PI: Dennis Lettenmaier, UW Current Sponsors: NOAA CPPA program, UW CSES

4 Experimental W. US Hydrologic Forecast System Soil Moisture Initial Condition Snowpack Initial Condition

5 Hydrologic Model-based Forecasting ICs* Spin-upForecast obs recently observed meteorological data ensemble of met. data to generate forecast hydrologic state IC = initial conditions ENSO subset 1960 1961 1962 … 1999 ESP Can adjust IC by assimilating snow or other observations

6 Streamflow Forecast Results: West-wide at a Glance

7 Flow location maps give access to monthly hydrograph plots, and also to raw forecast data. Clicking the stream flow forecast map also accesses current basin-averaged conditions Applications: streamflow Hydrologic Analyses

8 Presentation Outline 1. Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting System 2. Water Year 2007 Discussion and 2008 Outlook

9 Average annual water cycle The PNW hydrologic cycle PNW * Where we are now on average  soil moisture near annual low  runoff near low  nearly all water year precipitation yet to come  snow season not really underway  evaporation not a factor

10 The PNW hydrologic cycle Note that there is variability in soil moisture now… current basin averages

11 Recap WY2007, Jan. 1 hydrologic conditions Soil MoistureSWE

12 Recap WY2007, Mar. 1 hydrologic conditions Soil MoistureSWE

13 Recap WY2007, Snow Obs & Simulation Observed SWE

14 Recap WY2007, Apr. 1 hydrologic conditions Soil MoistureSWE

15 Winter 2006-07: seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP OBS Forecasts made on 1 st of Month

16 Slides Since last winter:  spring & late summer precip was low  one heat outbreak (in July)  soil moistures have dropped  entering new water year with a deficit

17 Oct 1 Soil Moisture Comparison with Last Year THIS YEARLAST YEAR

18 La Nina-flavored Climate Outlook for Winter Outlooks are probabilistic – show ‘tilting of the odds’

19 La Nina versus Normal conditions: Oct, Nov, Dec oct nov dec precip temperature SWEsoil moistrunoff

20 La Nina versus Normal conditions: Jan, Feb, Mar jan feb mar precip temperature SWEsoil moistrunoff

21 La Nina versus Normal conditions: Apr, May, Jun apr may jun precip temperature SWEsoil moistrunoff

22 Forecast initialized Oct 1 ‘07: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow Dalles: 93 / 102 ESPESP: La Nina

23 Forecast initialized Oct 1 ‘07: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow ESPESP: La Nina Priest Rapids: 96 / 103

24 Forecast initialized Oct 1 ‘07: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow ESPESP: La Nina Snake: 84 / 98

25  low soil moisture depresses flows through June  La Nina compensates, especially in June & July

26 Forecast initialized Oct 1 ‘07: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow ESPESP: La Nina Upper Snake: 88 / 100

27 Forecast initialized Oct 1 ‘07: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow ESPESP: La Nina Waneta: 93 / 102

28 Forecast initialized Oct 1 ‘07: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September 2008 Flow ESPESP: La Nina Arrow: 100 / 107

29 Summary current soil moisture deficits in eastern half of Columbia R. basin La Nina tendencies toward wetter and colder climate hydrologic outlook  Columbia R. (The Dalles): slightly above normal about + 5% to north about - 5% to east or southeast (Snake)  wide uncertainty ranges about these forecast averages early season forecast

30 thank you questions? aww@u.washington.edu

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