1. Aerosol-cloud-precipitation Interaction Professor Menglin Jin METR215: Advanced Physical Meteorology Basic aerosol-cloud processes Current key hypotheses Focus on Lifetime effect in buffered system

2. What is aerosol optical thickness? What is it at 0.55 micrometer? What are the typical values for this variable?

3. Indirect Effect: serve as CCNAerosol Direct Effect: Scattering/absorbing SW/LW surface

4. Total solar radiation decreased by aerosol= 20Wm-2 (Jin, Shepherd, and King, 2005, JGR) Aerosol decreases surface insolation Based on M-D. Chou’s radiative transfer model

5. Aerosol reduce surface insolation for extreme polluted days Jin, Shepherd and Zheng 2010

6. Observed aerosol reducing cloud droplet size Jin and Shepherd 2008, JGR

7. Different Aerosol Effects (from various papers) Biomass burning (sugar cane fields): This can greatly reduce or shut-off precipitation processes because of slowed down collision and coalescence, mainly due to the substantial increases in CCN concentrations from the smoke. The increased CCN concentrations leads to smaller sized drops, which have smaller collections kernels. Paper and pulp mills: These emissions change the size spectrum by introducing large and giant CCN, while not altering the small CCN concentrations. This increases the collision/coalescence efficiency, leading to enhanced precipitation (also maybe due to additional moisture emitted from such mills). Ship tracks: The smoke stack and emissions from a ship can change the number of CCN particles that then change the cloud structure. There is more liquid water in these clouds, higher CCN concentrations, and therefore these clouds reflect more solar energy. These clouds can also be somewhat deeper than surrounding clouds. Drizzle processes maybe reduced or shut off (which may explain the unexpected higher liquid water contents).

8. Daniel Rosenfeld http://www.met.sjsu.edu/~jin/AGU03urban.html

9. GRL 2003 The difference between the cloud clear air equivalent anthropogenic aerosol sulfate concentrations on the two days is nearly an order of magnitude, but in absolute terms it is only 1  g m -3. Astonishingly, this small amount of aerosol can reduce the snowfall rate up to 50%. Evidence is presented to demonstrate the possible magnitude of the secondary indirect aerosol effect on precipitation rates from cold mixed-phase clouds in mountainous regions where a seeder-feeder cloud couplet is present. Changes as small as 1  g m -3 in CCN aerosol concentration can cause significant changes in cloud properties and precipitation efficiencies. (Quoted from Borys et al., GRL 2003). Polluted Clean Rocky Mountains, CO Droplet diameter [  m] Crystal diameter [mm] Droplet concentration [cm -3 ] Crystal concentration [cm -3 ]

10. The effect of aerosols on precipitation in clouds was calculated from the data of the image above. The warm colors represent efficient precipitation processes, while the cold colors represent suppressed precipitation, due to the pollution. The scale is the maximal cloud top temperature [ 0 C] required for onset of precipitation. (1) Maritime and Rural aerosols Clouds from clean maritime air develop precipitation efficiently. After interacting with rural aerosols, the clouds are less efficient in developing precipitation. (2) Urban air pollution The blue color indicates detrimental effect of urban air pollution on the precipitation in the clouds. (3) Smoke from forest fires Another case of detrimental effect of the interaction of Clouds with biomass burning smoke on the precipitation in the clouds can be seen in the blue color over Sumatra and Kalimantan. The TOMS aerosol index can be seen below : Bangkok Ho Chi Minh (Saigon) Kalimantan Sumatra

11. So, does air pollution suppress or enhance overall rainfall amount from convective clouds? Observations and model simulations show that always clouds with more small CCN will rain less for a given maximum vertical development. Simulations show that in warm base clouds elevating the onset of precipitation can lead to longer time of cloud growth before downdrafts take over, and hence this dynamic feedback causes greater vigor and secondary formation of clouds, leading to more overall precipitation. This is Rosenfeld’s view. Not necessarily true

12. Apparent increases in aerosol optical depth in partly cloudy regions. Confounding Influences on Observations of Cloud Cover Effect

13. Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation Interactions in a Buffered System Shallow clouds are a crucial part of the earth’s climate system. They radiate in the longwave at approximately the same temperature as the surface but their stark albedo contrast with the dark underlying ocean/land exerts a significant shortwave cooling on the climate system. These clouds also play an important role in the development of deeper convection the details of their treatment in climate models influence climate sensitivity. The effect of aerosol particles on these clouds has been the subject of intense scrutiny for a number of decades. Traditionally aerosol influences have been viewed in terms of their effect on the cloud albedo or on the cloud lifetime. While there is abundant observational evidence for aerosol-induced cloud brightening, the evidence for the proposed increase in cloudiness or “lifetime” is ambiguous. In this presentation we will make the case that this ambiguity stems, at least in part, from the fact that the aerosol-cloud- precipitation system is buffered. This means that the response of the cloud to a forcing is weaker than would have been expected had internal mechanisms not been accounted for. A number of different examples of this buffering capacity will be presented. A strategy that includes field experiment and modeling work aimed at improving our understanding of the system will be proposed.

16. shallow cumulus convection, Shallow water clouds ( Kaufman et al. ) only a few hundred meters thick an increase in shallow cloud cover by only 0.04 is enough to offset 2-3°K of greenhouse warming By reflecting sunlight back to space, stratiform clouds are “the vast climate refrigerator of the tropics and subtropics

17. Longitudinal dependence of the shallow cloud fraction (Left) and droplet effective radius (Right) for the northern tropical Atlantic with dust intrusions (Upper) and southern tropical Atlantic with smoke intrusion (Lower). Kaufman Y J et al. PNAS 2005;102:11207-11212 ©2005 by National Academy of Sciences

18. Aerosol Effect in a Buffered System Stevens and Feingold 2009, Nature 1. What is Lifetime effect (LE) hypothesis? 2. Why LE is important to shallow martine cloud system? 3. What is the authors’ theory? (paragrahy 3)

19. Stevens and Feingold 2009, Nature (cont.) satellite observations –What solid observations on cloud droplet size vs. aerosols? (open cellular, fig. 2) –Global magnitude –Cloud fraction

20. Stevens and Feingold 2009, Nature (cont.) Two line of arguments related satellite observations for LE –The artefact argument

21. Stevens and Feingold 2009, Nature (cont.) A Buffered System - negative feedback - result of negative feedback