1. John Anderson Chairman The Global Anti-Counterfeiting Group

2. Chairman GACG Network IP Enforcement Project Consultant at Queen Mary Intellectual Property Research Institute, University of London EU Phare, Taiex and EuropeAid Projects Formerly: Director General Anti-Counterfeiting Group (UK) Vice-Chair, UNECE Team of Specialists on IP; WIPO Advisory Committee on Enforcement; UN Inter-Regional Criminal Research Institute Interpol IP Crime Action Group INTA and Marques a/c Committees

3. Measuring the economic and social impact of piracy and counterfeiting The view of the private sector European Industry

4. The view of the private sector European Industry ‘Global’ rather than European..... Industry Association(s)... (Compromises) Individual industry sectors and individual companies, AND especially certain ‘multinationals’ have strikingly divergent views So... the ‘ideal strategic private/public partnership’ view!

5. Summary What are we hoping to achieve? The scope of the problem Comment on OECD Report A brief history of measurement and methodology The challenges for future measurement and methodology

6. What industry is hoping to achieve: Quantify its own economic losses and justify its costs on protection and enforcement Quantify national, regional and global economic losses to persuade governments, IGOs enforcements agencies and courts to act Quantify trends over time and geography to shift allocation of resources and persuade authorities to do so also Show robust causal link between all economic losses and actual social consequences in order to increase public awareness and affect consumer choices

7. What is confusing There does not seem to be a clear difference between what can be measured objectively (quantitatively) and what we would like to measure subjectively (qualitatively) – i.e. the difference between: –Economic and commercial losses - SHOULD be possible –Personal, social losses – much more DIFFICULT –The questionable objective of trying to measure impact on TRADE AND confusion between measuring levels of enforcement and actual levels of infringements... More later

8. The scope of the problem International Multinational Cross-border Pan-industry Highly organised, criminal –Flexible –Adaptable (displacement) –Resources

9. The scope of the problem 2 The Internet and digital downloads China Official inertia The ‘development’ agenda

10. The OECD Report Commendable effort Disjointed terms of reference Too many ‘masters’ (Research by committee) No new research Perceptions (... the ‘development agenda’) Presentation

11. A brief selective history of measurement and methodology Original ICC project UK ACG/Italy Indicam GACG/CEBR ‘Counting Counterfeits’ Several local, sectoral and regional studies But methodologies all different...

12. Challenges for the Future Clear objectives of what is to be measured –Start with quantity – percentages –Then quantity – volumes –Then costs Street value Genuine goods value –Indices (e.g. year on year/countries or blocs; industry sectors) –Economic extrapolations Investment Tax revenue Public Spending

13. Simultaneously but separately...(1) Enforcement – e.g. –Seizures; confiscations, destruction orders –Civil and administrative complaints –Litigation –Criminal cases –Arrests –Convictions –Penalties

14. Simultaneously but separately...(2) Social impact: –Deaths –Injuries –Factory closures –Job losses –Links to organised crime –Links to terrorism

15. Challenges for the Future: Methodology 1.Choose a range of specific products 2.Measure total market within a country or bloc 3.Collate market penetration of leading brands of genuine products 4. Calculate total market for genuine products 5. Apply formula (e.g 2-4 equals illegal production assembly or importation......)

16. Challenges for the Future: Methodology 1.Statistics collected statutorily by Competition (anti-trust) authorities 2.Consumer/Market surveys 3.Demographics 4.Official sources: police, customs, courts, Health and Safety authorities; hospitals 5.Open source data mining

17. Contact/Information janderson.gacg@btinternet.com mail@uaacp.org www.gacg.org