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July 2010 From “V” to “U” Benjamin Tal. |2|2 Impact of US Stimulus Package and Inventory Changes on US GDP Growth.

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Presentation on theme: "July 2010 From “V” to “U” Benjamin Tal. |2|2 Impact of US Stimulus Package and Inventory Changes on US GDP Growth."— Presentation transcript:

1 July 2010 From “V” to “U” Benjamin Tal

2 |2|2 Impact of US Stimulus Package and Inventory Changes on US GDP Growth

3 |3|3 US Core CPI Slowest in Half Century

4 |4|4 US Double Dip Recession in Google

5 |5|5 Probability of Recession

6 |6|6 Canadian Stimulus Withdrawal a Major Drag

7 |7|7 OIS Implied BoC Expectations

8 |8|8 Hikes Will Still Leave Rates Low by Historical Standards

9 |9|9 Stability Fund Covers Refinancing

10 | 10 Size of Fiscal Cuts Needed to Stabilize Net Debt-to-GDP Ratio

11 | 11 China’s Purchasing Index Points to 10% Growth Source: Bloomberg, CIBC

12 | 12 Chinese Stocks Don’t Always Reflect Economy Source: Bloomberg, CIBC

13 | 13 Incomes Have Kept Pace With Housing Costs Source: Bloomberg, CIBC

14 | 14 Little Inflation Outside of Food Source: Bloomberg, CIBC

15 | 15 Canadian Dollar Rich Relative to Commodities

16 | 16 Fixed Income Inflows Driving C$ Appreciation: C$ to Average Near Parity Through 2011

17 | 17 Global Economy to Slow in the Second Half Source: CIBC

18 | 18 Analysts’ Track Record in Predicting S&P 500 Earnings Source: Thomson Reuters, CIBC

19 | 19 US Earnings Growth Expectations Have Been Ratcheted Up More Aggressively Than in Canada Source: Thomson Reuters, CIBC

20 | 20 Capital Intensive Industries Behind Manufacturing Rebound Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, CIBC * Thousand US$ per worker (2004)

21 | 21 Rising Canadian Equity Market Correlation with Non-US Stocks Source: MSCI/Barra Total Return Index, CIBC

22 | 22 Canadian Equities More Correlated with Global Stocks in Bad Times Source: MSCI/Barra Total Return Index, CIBC

23 | 23 Correlation of TSX Sector Returns to World Equities During Periods of Global Underperformance* Source: MSCI/Barra Total Return Index, CIBC

24 | 24 Correlation of Various Asset Classes with World Equities During Periods of Underperformance* Source: MSCI/Barra Total Return Index, CIBC

25 | 25 Exposure of Exporting Nations to the Eurozone Source: EuroStat, CIBC

26 | 26 Canada’s Government Debt Burden the Least Onerous Note: Based on IMF projections

27 | 27 Government Debt and Per Capita GDP Growth Source: IMF, “Navigating the Fiscal Challenges Ahead”, May 2010 0 50 100150200 250 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2 4 6 Per capita GDP growth, (%/annum), average for subsequent 5 years Initial Gross Debt Level (in % of GDP)

28 | 28 Canada’s Banks Well Capitalized by International Standards Source: CIBC, IMF

29 | 29 Projected Growth in Economically Active Population, 2010-2015 Source: International Labour Organization

30 | 30 Canadian Companies Less Leveraged Than US Ones Source: Statistics Canada, Federal Reserve

31 | 31 Thank You This material was prepared for investment professionals only and is not for public distribution. It is for informational purposes only and is not intended to convey investment, legal, or tax advice. The material and/or its contents may not be reproduced without the express written consent of Renaissance Investments.

32 | 32 Questions & Answers


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