1. Modeling Permafrost – a CMT component Elchin Jafarov Vladimir Romanovsky Sergei Marchenko Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks Boulder, October, 2011

2. Frozen Soil (Permafrost)

3. Thawing Permafrost http://www.libraryindex.com/pages/3372/Permafrost.html http://ipy.arcticportal.org/index.php?/ipy/detail/permafrost/ http://nasadaacs.eos.nasa.gov/articles/2005/2005_permafrost.html

4. Measurements

5. Soil Moisture Soil texture by grain size table Neil Davis “Permafrost” Texture NameDiameter Limits Boulders>Cobbles>PebblesLarger than 2 cm Gravel2cm – 5 mm Very Coarse Sand1 mm – 2 mm Sand0.05 mm – 1 mm Silt0.002 mm – 0.05 mm ClayLess than 0.002 mm

6. Mathematical Model

7. Active Layer Thickness Ice-nucleation temperature Noncryotic Cryotic Partially Frozen FrozenUnfrozen Unfrozen water content Freezing point depression T > 0 o C 0oC0oC T < 0 o C Water content C.R. Burn. (1999). The Active Layer: Two Contrasting Definition.

8. Active Layer Thickness Ice-nucleation temperature Noncryotic Cryotic Partially Frozen FrozenUnfrozen Unfrozen water content Freezing point depression T > 0 o C 0oC0oC T < 0 o C Water content C.R. Burn. (1999). The Active Layer: Two Contrasting Definition. Saturation coeff.

9. GIPL2-MPI The GIPL-MPI model schematic diagram. S. Marchenko (2008)

10. Input Datasets Monthly averaged air temperature ( o C) during January 1980 (SNAP). Monthly averaged precipitation (mm) during January 1980 (SNAP).  The GCMs composite was downscaled to 2 by 2 km resolution using knowledge-based system PRISM.

11. Input Datasets Karlstrom, T.N.V., et al., 1964. Surficial geology of Alaska. U.S. Geol.Surv., Misc. Geol. Inv. Map I-357, scale 1:1,584,000

12. Calibration and Validation

13. Results

14. Projections of the decadal average MAGT at 2 m depth

15. GIPL CMT component GIPL in CMT

16. Coupling TopoFlow with GIPL2 VWC f/t depth ET INF Runoff TopoflowGIPL Thawed Frozen

17. Acknowledgments & State of AlaskaFunding