1. CYCLOPS: Modelling the Role of Vegetation Type & Fire on Permafrost Thaw Aaron Thierry, C. Estop-Aragones, J.Fisher, I.Hartley, J. Murton, G. Phoenix, L. Street & M. Williams

2. ~25% of NH land area 1400–1700 Gt of carbon

3. Jorgenson et al 2010

4. IPCC WG1 Fig 12.33

5. Photo credit: Brandi Jo Petronio

6. Kelly et al 2013 PNAS Increased fire frequency

7. Natural Resources Canada

8. CYCLOPS: Carbon Cycle Linkages of Permafrost Systems

9. BurnedUnburned

10. BurnedUnburned

11. Frost Table at Mosquito Creek Active Layer Depth (cm) Burned Unburned

12. Fisher et al. (in prep)

13. Moss Soil – organic & mineral Vegetation Solar (direct and diffuse) Solar (reflected) Latent heat flux Sensible heat flux Emitted and down-welling longwave Precipitation Transpiration Evaporation Drainage Ground heat flux Thaw/freezing Soil moisture Soil temperature Inputs: radiation, precipitation, air temperature, vapour pressure deficit [met stations] Parameters: soil and vegetation initial states, biophysical parameters [field studies, calibration] Outputs: energy balance dynamics, soil moisture, soil temperature profiles SPA: Soil Plant Atmosphere Model

14. Day of Year Soil Temperature (C) Soil temperature dynamics Red line = met station Red symbols = survey Black line = model simulations

15. SPA application at Firefox

16. Modelled Active Layer

17. What’s Next? Sensitivity to organic matter/moss cover Combine with Data on Soil C Stocks to help quantify C at Risk of Oxidation Link to soil decomposition simulations

18. Thanks