1. An International Survey of Gun Laws and Violent Crime: The Republic of Ireland, Jamaica, Great Britain, Australia, and Canada

2. American Society of Criminology Dr. Gary A Mauser Professor Institute for Canadian Urban Research Studies Faculty of Business Administration Simon Fraser University Burnaby, BC, Canada Presented to the Annual Meeting of the American Society of Criminology Renaissance Hotel, Nashville, Tennessee Saturday, 20 November 2004

3. American Society of Criminology Do British-style firearm regulations create a safer society? Gun laws are explicitly focused on controlling firearms, but The promise is that more restrictive gun laws will make society safer What is the international evidence?

4. American Society of Criminology An experiment in Brazil “[The gun law] is … to cut the spiral of violence.. ” –President Luiz da Silva, Brazil “The amnesty is the latest step in the [Brazil] government’s efforts to reduce violent crime.” –BBC report November 11, 2003

5. American Society of Criminology Promises in South Africa “South Africa hopes to make a dent in its frighteningly high crime rate with a new gun- control law that went into effect …” –Agence France Presse, National Post, July 3, 2004, A10 “We believe that in the long term these laws will ultimately create a safer South Africa.” –Police spokesman Andrew Lesch, July 3, 2004

6. American Society of Criminology How can we measure improvements in public safety? Violent crime rates should drop Homicide rates should fall Not just criminal violence involving guns, but all criminal violence should fall Not just gun homicide, but total homicide

7. American Society of Criminology Which measures are the most appropriate? Gun deaths Gun violence Total violent crime –Robbery, armed robbery Total homicide (or murder)

8. American Society of Criminology Gun Death is a Red Herring Gun deaths are largely suicides Suicide is not central to public safety Substitution effect is supported empirically The removal of firearms or sharps must balance liberty with personal safety

9. American Society of Criminology Gun death is mostly suicide 57% of gun deaths in the US are due to suicides 77% of gun deaths in Canada are due to suicides

10. American Society of Criminology Gun Violence It is relevant to ask whether gun laws cause gun violence to decrease (or increase), But …is this the best measure of public safety? A policy could reduce gun violence, but overall violent crime could still increase Gun crime is a small fraction of violent crime

11. American Society of Criminology Gun violence is a small fraction of violent crime Violent crime involving firearms: Canada (2003)2% England and Wales (2001)1% United States (1999) 7%

12. American Society of Criminology The most appropriate measures of public safety Homicide rate (or murder) Violent crime rate Robbery, armed robbery

13. American Society of Criminology International trends compared with trends in the US Countries that have introduced harsh general firearms laws in the 1990s : –Australia, Great Britain, and Canada Countries that completely banned firearms in the 1970s: –Republic of Ireland and Jamaica

14. American Society of Criminology A natural quasi-experiment The justice system in the United States has increasingly diverged from that in Britain or in the Commonwealth: –Arrest/conviction rates higher in the US, –Sentencing/punishment more severe, and –Citizens can carry concealed handguns.

15. American Society of Criminology Please Note To assess the effect of laws, we must compare trends across countries Direct comparison of international averages is inappropriate Police statistics, despite limitations, are the best international measure

16. Republic of Ireland Gun prohibition and terrorism

17. American Society of Criminology Irish Gun Law Firearms prohibited and confiscated in 1972 Concern with terrorism motivated this action as well as other police activities

18. American Society of Criminology Murders continue to increase

19. Jamaica The Gun Court and Drug Violence

20. American Society of Criminology Jamaican Gun Laws Gun court (1974 - 1982) –Firearms and ammunition prohibited –Mandatory life sentences –No bail, no jury trials for charges of possession of firearm or ammunition crimes, Firearm ownership still prohibited

21. American Society of Criminology Murders continue to increase

22. American Society of Criminology Jamaican crime trends

23. American Society of Criminology Violent crime continues to increase

24. Great Britain

25. American Society of Criminology Firearm laws have targeted legal owners The Firearms Amendment of 1988 was brought in following the Hungerford incident –Brought in shotgun licences The Firearms Amendment of 1997 was brought in after the Dunblane shooting –Prohibited and confiscated all handguns

26. American Society of Criminology Homicide increasing

27. American Society of Criminology Murders increasing in Scotland

28. American Society of Criminology Violent crime rates increasing

29. American Society of Criminology Robbery is increasing but gun ownership (legal) is decreasing

30. American Society of Criminology Very few firearms used in homicide are legally held

31. Australia

32. American Society of Criminology Australian firearms legislation In 1997, government brought in sweeping firearms legislation following shootings in Tasmania Prohibited and confiscated semi-automatic long arms, Introduced strict new licencing and registration regulations

33. American Society of Criminology Homicide rates stable in Australia since 1997 gun law

34. American Society of Criminology Violent crime growing in Australia, but falling in the United States

35. American Society of Criminology Robbery rates are climbing in Australia but falling in the US

36. Canada

37. American Society of Criminology Canadian firearms legislation 1977, introduced police screening for firearm purchasers 1991, stiffer rules for ownership, prohibited a variety of firearms, magazines 1995, owner licensing and universal firearm registration; banned many handguns

38. American Society of Criminology Homicide rates decreasing faster in the US than in Canada

39. American Society of Criminology Violent crime rates are basically flat in Canada, but falling in the US

40. American Society of Criminology Decline in firearm suicide rate does not reduce total suicide rate

41. American Society of Criminology 1995 Canadian firearms regulations Total costs expected to reach $2 billion in 2004 Originally estimated to cost $2 million Corruption investigation ongoing No visible effect on violent crime rates or suicide rates

42. American Society of Criminology Summary No evidence that restrictive firearm regulations have reduced violent crime or homicide rates in Canada, Australia, Great Britain, Jamaica, or the Republic of Ireland Only the United States has witnessed a dramatic drop in criminal violence

43. American Society of Criminology Tentative conclusions British-style firearm laws and gun bans are ineffective and expensive Prediction: new gun laws will fail in both Brazil and South Africa to curb violent crime or homicide