1. Nowcast/Forecast System of Prince William Sound, Alaska (PWS-NFS) INKWEON BANG CHRISTOPHER N.K. MOOERS OCEAN PREDICTION EXPERIMENTAL LABORATORY (OPEL) RSMAS, UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI MIAMI, FLORIDA, USA

2. Outline Introduction PWS-NFS with NDBC Wind PWS-NFS with PWS-RAMS Wind Process and Validation Studies Challenges

3. Offshore Circulation Aleutian Low L Alaska Current (EBC) & Alaska Stream (WBC) Alaska Coastal Current

4. Throughflow - ACC Wind - Aleutian Low Buoyancy - Snowmelt Tide Topography - Fjord Forcings Prince William Sound

5. Barotropic – Flat Bottom Barotropic – Realistic Bottom

6. Baroclinic – Realistic Bottom

7. Forcing Verification Data assimilation Current Temperature Salinity Particle trajectories CTD, ADCP, etc UAF, SEA,OSRI Historical Data Sub-Models Tide Freshwater Flux Real-Time Observing System Winds, SST, Sea Level NDBC, NCEP, NOS Fisheries Model Ecosystem Model OSCAR (chemical fates) WebArchives PWS-POM Horizontal Maps Transects Time series Animations Atmospheric Model Wind, Heat Flux Precipitation, SLP

8. Model Domain and Locations of Observations by NDBC, NOS, PWSSC

9. Attributes of PWS-POM North of HE & MS  expand to NGOA (North of 59 o N, 150 o W ~ 145 o W) 0.01 o  0.02 o (~1.1 km)  15 levels  more vertical levels (26 levels) External timestep = 5 seconds, Internal timestep = 2.5 minutes HORCON = 0.2, TPRNI=1.0  HORCON = 0.1, TPRNI=0.2 Maximum depth = 500 m  full depth Climatological T/S at open boundary  from a larger domain model (Global NCOM) Radiation boundary condition at open boundary Mellor-Yamada 2.5 vertical turbulence closure scheme Smagorinsky horizontal turbulence closure scheme

10. Attributes of PWS-NFS Since November 2000 Hourly wind (NDBC 46060)  high-resolution (4 km) regional atmospheric forecast model (PWS-RAMS) 8 Tidal constituents (O 1,K 1,P 1,Q 1,M 2,S 2,N 2,K 2 )  plus ACC transport Monthly heat flux (COADS)  PWS-RAMS Daily, non-uniform climatological freshwater flux (hydrological model)  forecast from hydrological sub-model and/or PWS-RAMS Everyday  24-hour nowcast  48-hour forecast without wind  72-hour forecast (PWS-RAMS) Automated download of near-realtime observational data (wind, sea level, water temperature) Output to website in graphic/tabular format http://pws-nfs-osri.rsmas.miami.edu

11. Comparison of Obs/Sim Water Temperatures at three locations

12. Sea Level at Valdez (barometric pressure compensated)

13. PWS-NFS with RAMS wind Since March 17, 2003 Same configuration as PWS-NFS with NDBC wind RAMS wind field is uploaded everyday to UM from UAA 1-hour interval, 36-hour forecast Converted to 10 m height and interpolated onto model grid Run with RAMS wind field for 3 days (past 24-hour RAMS + 36-hour RAMS forecast) Post results at web Archive RAMS wind (first 24 hours for next day forcing and comparison) Comparison plots at NDBC locations (at 5 m height) Display 3-hour interval RAMS wind field

14. Some Attributes OF PWS-RAMS ( Operated AT AEFF, UAA ) VERSION 4.3, NON-HYDROSTATIC TRIPLY NESTED (HORIZONTALLY) PARENT GRID (50 X 50); DX,Y = 64 KM; (3200 KM X 3200 KM) SECOND GRID (70 X 58); DX,Y = 16 KM; (1120 KM X 928 KM) FINE GRID (102 X 82): DX,Y = 4 KM; (408 KM X 328 KM) VERTICAL COORDINATE IS STRETCHED SIGMA 36 GRID POINTS INITIAL DELTA_Z 50 M STRETCHING FACTOR IS 1.13 MAXIMUM GRID SIZE IS 1 KM INITIALIZATION FROM NCEP ETA MODEL INITIAL ANALYSIS & FORECAST FROM 12Z OPERATIONAL RUN PROVIDES 3-DAY INITIALIZATION & TIME-VARYING BOUNDARY CONDITONS http://aeff.uaa.alaska.edu/

15. RAMS vs NDBC at 46060

16. NDBCRAMS RAMS WIND

17. Comparison of Obs/Sim Water Temperatures at three locations

18. Comparison of Obs/Sim Sea Level at Valdez

19. Validation Experiment Seasonal Cycle of 1996 (SEA) Hourly Wind (NDBC 46060) Monthly Heat Flux (COADS) Short Wave Radiation (COADS Cloud Cover) Monthly Freshwater Flux (Hydrological Model) 0.01 o  0.02 o  (~1.1 km)  15 levels 1995~1997 ADCP Mooring near HE Mellor-Yamada 2.5 Turbulence Closure Scheme HORCON=0.1, TPRNI=0.2, Water Type=III Three Cases depending on velocity condition at open boundary Case 1 - Daily Velocity Profile Case 2 - Daily Transport Case 3 - Monthly Transport

20. Winds, Heat/Freshwater Flux, and Mean transport

21. ADCP Mooring at HE Velocity Profile Observed Monthly Transport Daily Transport

22. Velocity at ADCP mooring (Velocity Profile case)

23. Mean Velocity Profile and Standard Deviation

24. Temperature Comparison at CLAB in 1996 Monthly Transport Daily Transport Observed Velocity Profile

25. Mean Temperature Profile and Standard Deviation

26. Temperature and Salinity at CFOS13 April June Sept. Dec.

27. Simulated T balance inside PWS

28. Decomposition of T/S advection [RIGHT COLUMN: T = S]

29. Extended PWS (EPWS)-NFS and link to a larger domain model (Global NCOM) Coupling with PWS-RAMS – heat flux, E-P, etc. Forecast freshwater flux using the hydrological model and PWS-RAMS Link to ecosystem model Add a wave model Challenges

30. Hydrological Model (Simmons 1996) Watersheds (289) are delineated based on digital elevation model Model is driven by climatological daily air temperature and precipitation and considers variations in elevation and glacier distribution 241 watersheds inside PWS-NFS domain are used (since12 MAR03)

31. Daily freshwater discharge through precipitation and land discharge Daily, non-uniform land discharge along coastline Precipitation is applied uniformly to all grid points

32. Spatial distribution of annual land discharge (m 3 )