1. Development of a landscape-scale model for restoration planning following SPB induced tree mortality John Waldron 1, David Cairns 2, Robert Coulson 3, Charles Lafon 2, Maria Tchakerian 3, Kier Klepzig 4 1. Knowledge Engineering Laboratory, Bent Creek Experimental Forest, 1577 Brevard Road, Asheville, NC 28806. 2. Department of Geography, 810 Eller O&M Building, Texas A&M University, College Station TX, 77843-3147 3. Knowledge Engineering Laboratory, Department of Entomology, 408 Heep Center, Texas A&M University, College Station TX, 77843-2475. 4. Southern Pine Beetle: Ecology, Behavior and Management, USDA-Forest Service Southern Research Station, 2500 Shreveport Highway, Pineville, LA 71360.

2. ?

3. Project approach Use LANDIS to model the restoration of fire-controlled native Pitch pine/Table-Mountain Pine ecosystems in montane Western North Carolina.

4. PASTFUTUREPRESENT

5. LANDIS (Landscape Disturbance and Succession) was originally designed to meet the following specifications: ● uses satellite imagery or raster GIS for initial input ● operates regionally with cell sizes ranging from 10- 500m ● simulates succession dynamics at 10-year intervals ● simulates forest change at the species level ● simulates disturbances by wind, fire, and harvesting ● simulates the interaction between succession and disturbances simultaneously ● seed dispersal is simulated in a “spatially explicit” manner

6. SPB

7. Needs Assessment for LANDIS SPB Restoration Project: 1. Determine the LANDTYPE CLASSES (LC) for the project area a. determine probability of various woody species occurring in each area 2. Create a LANDTYPE MAP (LT) -A raster map reflecting the location of the LC 3. Create a SPECIES FILE (SF) -Contains information regarding attributes of each species included 4. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION FILE (SCF) -Listing of communities of species from the SF that are found within each LC 5. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION MAP (SCM) -A raster map reflecting locations of communities in the SCF 6. Create a DISTURBANCE FILE (DF) -This contains information about FIRE, WIND, & HARVESTING 7. Create a SPB-BDA FILE (SBF) -Landtype modifiers, disturbance modifiers, temporal parameters, species vulnerabilities, neighborhood outbreak modifiers…

15. LandType ClassCommunity TypesElevation Range (m)SlopeAspect Spruce Fir >1671 Northern Hardwood 1571-1671 Cove Hardwood/Northern Hardwood 1080-1571 Cove Hardwood 937-1080 SW-NE Mesic Oak 937-1080 NE-SW Cove Hardwood 684-937>27.6%SW-NE Xeric Oak 684-937>15%E-S Mixed Mesic Hardwood 684-937Gentle (<15%) Mixed Mesic Hardwood 551-684 N-NE Xeric Oak 551-684 NE-SW Pine 551-684 SW-N Xeric Oak <551

16. Xeric 30 500 1.0 10 250 250 0.25#pinuechi# 0.05#betupapy# 0.0#pinepung# 0.25#pinurigi# 0.25#pinustro# 0.75#pinuvirg# 0.0#thujacan# 0.05#prunpenn# 10 20 40 50 100 #fire curves# 1 2 3 4 5 #fire class # 0 0 0 0 0 #wind curve# 0 0 0 0 0 #mod fire cl# a. Minimum age cohort present on site before a highly shade tolerant tree can establish b. Mean number of years needed for fire to burn the entire landtype c. Fire ignition coefficient (0 or 1) d. Fire probability e. Time since last windthrow f. Time since last fire a b c d e f

17. Needs Assessment for LANDIS SPB Restoration Project: 1. Determine the LANDTYPE CLASSES (LC) for the project area a. determine probability of various woody species occurring in each area 2. Create a LANDTYPE MAP (LT) -A raster map reflecting the location of the LC 3. Create a SPECIES FILE (SF) -Contains information regarding attributes of each species included 4. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION FILE (SCF) -Listing of communities of species from the SF that are found within each LC 5. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION MAP (SCM) -A raster map reflecting locations of communities in the SCF 6. Create a DISTURBANCE FILE (DF) -This contains information about FIRE, WIND, & HARVESTING 7. Create a SPB-BDA FILE (SBF) -Landtype modifiers, disturbance modifiers, temporal parameters, species vulnerabilities, neighborhood outbreak modifiers…

18. Needs Assessment for LANDIS SPB Restoration Project: 1. Determine the LANDTYPE CLASSES (LC) for the project area a. determine probability of various woody species occurring in each area 2. Create a LANDTYPE MAP (LT) -A raster map reflecting the location of the LC 3. Create a SPECIES FILE (SF) -Contains information regarding attributes of each species included 4. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION FILE (SCF) -Listing of communities of species from the SF that are found within each LC 5. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION MAP (SCM) -A raster map reflecting locations of communities in the SCF 6. Create a DISTURBANCE FILE (DF) -This contains information about FIRE, WIND, & HARVESTING 7. Create a SPB-BDA FILE (SBF) -Landtype modifiers, disturbance modifiers, temporal parameters, species vulnerabilities, neighborhood outbreak modifiers…

19. name longevitymaturity shadefireeff_seed max_seedveg_propsprout reclass Abies fraseri 15015512741600010 Acer rubrum 15010311002000.510 Acer saccharum 20020511002000.110 Aesculus flava (octandra) 2002042301000 10 Alnus serrulata 3010312005000 10 Amelanchier arborea 502032303000 10 Betula alleghaniensis (lutea) 3004042100400 10 Betula lenta 2004012352000.110 Betula papyrifera 120302220050000.510 Carya alba (tomentosa) 20025213010000.510 Carya glabra 3003031 10000.510 Cornus florida 100651503000110 Fagus grandifolia 3004051253000 10 Fraxinus americana 2003041701400.110 Liriodendron tulipifera 300152130300 10 Magnolia acuminata 1502532303000 10 Magnolia fraseri 701031303000110 Magnolia tripetala 601041303000 10 Nyssa sylvatica 200543253000 10 Ostrya virginiana 10025421004000.910

20. Oxydendrum arboreum 1002042501000110 Picea rubens 4002041602000.110 Pinus pungens 250525902750.2510 Pinus rigida 2001025902750.910 Pinus strobus 4001533100250010 Pinus virginiana 100513302750.110 Platanus occidentalis 25025412005000 10 Prunus pensylvanica 301011303000 10 Prunus serotina 20020213030000.510 Quercus alba 45020335030000.510 Quercus coccinea 1252011503000110 Quercus prinus 3502031503000110 Quercus rubra 30025325030000.510 Quercus velutina 1502033503000110 Robinia pseudo-acacia 100611303000 10 Salix nigra 7510122005000110 Sassafras albidum 2001021303000110 Sorbus americana 501522303000 10 Tilia americana var. heterophylla 2501542301200.510 Tsuga canadensis 4503053 100010 Tsuga caroliniana 450205330100010

21. Needs Assessment for LANDIS SPB Restoration Project: 1. Determine the LANDTYPE CLASSES (LC) for the project area a. determine probability of various woody species occurring in each area 2. Create a LANDTYPE MAP (LT) -A raster map reflecting the location of the LC 3. Create a SPECIES FILE (SF) -Contains information regarding attributes of each species included 4. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION FILE (SCF) -Listing of communities of species from the SF that are found within each LC 5. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION MAP (SCM) -A raster map reflecting locations of communities in the SCF 6. Create a DISTURBANCE FILE (DF) -This contains information about FIRE, WIND, & HARVESTING 7. Create a SPB-BDA FILE (SBF) -Landtype modifiers, disturbance modifiers, temporal parameters, species vulnerabilities, neighborhood outbreak modifiers…

22. # Xeric - early - Common (1) # #prunpenn# 0 000000000000 #pinuechi# 1 000000000000 #betupapy# 1 000000000000000000 #pinepung# 0 00000000000000000000 #pinurigi# 1 00000000000000000000 #pinustro# 1 0100000 #pinuvirg# 1 000000000000000 #thujacan# 0 000 # Xeric - Mid - Common (2) # 0 100000000000 1 000000000000 1 000000000000000000 0 01000000000000000000 1 01000000000000000000 1 0000100 1 000000000000000 0 000 # Xeric - Late - Common (3) # 0 000001000000 1 000000000000 1 000000000000000000 0 00000100000000000000 1 00000000000000000000 1 0000000 1 000000000000000 0 000 # Xeric - early - Rare (4) # 0 000000000000 1 100000000000 1 000000000000000000 0 00000000000000000000 1 00000000000000000000 1 0000000 1 000000000000000 First number is a vegetative propagation flag And the remaining numbers are the age cohorts present

23. Needs Assessment for LANDIS SPB Restoration Project: 1. Determine the LANDTYPE CLASSES (LC) for the project area a. determine probability of various woody species occurring in each area 2. Create a LANDTYPE MAP (LT) -A raster map reflecting the location of the LC 3. Create a SPECIES FILE (SF) -Contains information regarding attributes of each species included 4. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION FILE (SCF) -Listing of communities of species from the SF that are found within each LC 5. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION MAP (SCM) -A raster map reflecting locations of communities in the SCF 6. Create a DISTURBANCE FILE (DF) -This contains information about FIRE, WIND, & HARVESTING 7. Create a SPB-BDA FILE (SBF) -Landtype modifiers, disturbance modifiers, temporal parameters, species vulnerabilities, neighborhood outbreak modifiers…

24. Needs Assessment for LANDIS SPB Restoration Project: 1. Determine the LANDTYPE CLASSES (LC) for the project area a. determine probability of various woody species occurring in each area 2. Create a LANDTYPE MAP (LT) -A raster map reflecting the location of the LC 3. Create a SPECIES FILE (SF) -Contains information regarding attributes of each species included 4. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION FILE (SCF) -Listing of communities of species from the SF that are found within each LC 5. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION MAP (SCM) -A raster map reflecting locations of communities in the SCF 6. Create a DISTURBANCE FILE (DF) -This contains information about FIRE, WIND, & HARVESTING 7. Create a SPB-BDA FILE (SBF) -Landtype modifiers, disturbance modifiers, temporal parameters, species vulnerabilities, neighborhood outbreak modifiers…

25. Needs Assessment for LANDIS SPB Restoration Project: 1. Determine the LANDTYPE CLASSES (LC) for the project area a. determine probability of various woody species occurring in each area 2. Create a LANDTYPE MAP (LT) -A raster map reflecting the location of the LC 3. Create a SPECIES FILE (SF) -Contains information regarding attributes of each species included 4. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION FILE (SCF) -Listing of communities of species from the SF that are found within each LC 5. Create a SPECIES COMPOSITION MAP (SCM) -A raster map reflecting locations of communities in the SCF 6. Create a DISTURBANCE FILE (DF) -This contains information about FIRE, WIND, & HARVESTING 7. Create a SPB-BDA FILE (SBF) -Landtype modifiers, disturbance modifiers, temporal parameters, species vulnerabilities, neighborhood outbreak modifiers…

26. LANDIS-BDA: Biological Disturbance Agent module Models Biological Disturbances (Disease & Insect) 5 Main Elements 1) Site Resource Dominance (SRD)- Indicates quality of food resources on a given site (cell) 2) Site Resource Modifiers- Adjust SRD to reflect variation in in food resources by land type and disturbance 3) Neighborhood Resource Dominance- distance-weighted average of SRD in all sites within a user-specified neighborhood. Combined with SRD to calculate Site Vulnerability, which dictates severity of Outbreak. 4) Temporal Disturbance Function- Determines temporal behavior of Biological Agent (chronic, cyclic, random) 5) Dispersal- Uses a search vector to identify barriers to annual dispersal distance in 4 or 8 directions. (UNDER DEVELOPMENT)

27. Spruce Budworm Example Based on data provided by B. Sturtevant 100m x 100m cells 512 x 512 cell landscape

28. Spruce Budworm Example Based on data provided by B. Sturtevant 100m x 100m cells 512 x 512 cell landscape

30. BUDWORM 20 YEARS

31. BUDWORM 60 YEARS

32. BUDWORM 100 YEARS

33. BUDWORM 140 YEARS

34. BUDWORM 180 YEARS

37. 20

41. 60

45. 100

49. 140

53. 180

57. 220

61. PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 10

62. PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 20

63. PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 60

64. PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 100

65. PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 120

66. PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 130

67. PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 140

68. PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 150

69. PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 180

70. PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 200

71. PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 220

72. PRESENCE/ABSENCE OF BALSAM FIR AT YEAR 250

73. Next Step: SPB-BDA 1. Calibration of LANDIS to fit our study area 2. Calibration of BDA to fit SPB behavior 3. Testing of Model on Simple Hypothetical Landscapes 4. Engaging the model in restoration scenarios 5. Analysis of data 6. Dissemination of Results

74. Anticipated Products 1. Better understanding of SPB at Landscape Scale 2. Knowledge of how best to re-structure SPB infested landscapes to make them: a) More SPB Resistant b) Ecologically correct 3. A tool to aid in constructing more robust management plans for restoring forests disturbed by SPB