1. What I’m Going to Say Everyone in this room understands how climate works well enough -- arguing about the details is not worth your time Climate will change a lot in the next generation, and policy will be enacted in response to perceived needs The political right has been AWOL in proposing policy solutions to a global problem The world needs you to be engaged!

2. Ever Wonder Why? Day is warmer than night? Summer is warmer than winter? Miami is warmer than Minneapolis?

3. Five Simple Facts 1.Today is Friday (on this side of dateline!) 2.Billions of people will need more energy to lift themselves out of abject poverty 3.Burning coal, oil, and gas produces CO 2 4.CO 2 emits heat 5.Heat warms things up Nobody here disputes any of these statements

4. Forcing & Feedbacks Doubled CO 2 would add 4 Watts/m 2, day and night, winter and summer, pole to pole Producing a decent standard of living to 3 billion extra people won’t double CO 2 this century: it will quadruple it (400% vs 30%) You should be extremely skeptical of claims of 8 Watts/m 2 of negative feedback If the climate system really had such powerful negative feedback, climate could never have changed!

5. 2 2 = 4 billion tons go out Ocean Land Plants and soils (net) Fossil Fuel Burning + 8 800 billion tons carbon 4 billion tons go in ATMOSPHERE billion tons added every year CO 2 “Budget” of the World Extra heat comes from the water, not the faucet!

6. The Global Carbon Cycle Fossil Atmosphere 800 + 4/yr Ocean 38,000 Land 2000 ~90 ~120 8 GtC/yr ~90 About half the CO 2 released by humans is absorbed by oceans and land

7. Where Has All the CO 2 Gone? oceansInto the oceans –Solubility pump (CO 2 very soluble in cold water, but rates are limited by slow physical mixing) –Biological pump (slow “rain” of organic debris) landInto the land –CO 2 Fertilization (plants eat CO2 … is more better?) –Nutrient fertilization (N-deposition and fertilizers) –Land-use change (forest regrowth, fire suppression, woody encroachment … but what about Wal-Marts?) –Response to changing climate (e.g., Boreal warming)

8. Vertical Structure of the Oceans Warm buoyant “raft” floats at surface Deep water is icy cold, inky black, most of the ocean doesn’t know we’re here yet! Very stable, hard to mix, takes ~ 1000 years! sfc 4 km

9. Observing the Deep Ocean

10. WOCE/JGOFS/OACES Global Survey Data Observing the Deep Ocean

11. Measured Fossil CO 2 Nearly all the fossil CO 2 is confined to the upper “mixed layer” of the ocean Deeper water can hold way more CO 2, but is cold and dense Takes about 1000 years to mix the oceans in the vertical Dissolved in the Oceans Atlantic Pacific Indian

12. industrial revolution you are here CO2 (ppm) The Long Tail “When we reduce or stop the burning of fossil fuel, the CO 2 will go away and things will go back to normal” CO 2 from fossil fuel will react with oceans, but only as fast as they “mix” Eventually, fossil CO 2 will react with rocks Much of the CO 2 emitted in China & India will stay in the air for many thousands of years!

13. Simple Facts Revisited 1.CO 2 emits heat 2.CO 2 stays around for thousands of years 3.Extra heat warms things up 4.Earth’s climate has always changed because of differences in heat Physics doesn’t care People will have to adapt Physics doesn’t care People will have to adapt

14. Bad & Ineffective Policy Lightbulbs State or national-level “penalties” Government choosing winners & losers Fiddling with the details Making people poorer

15. Effective Solutions Decent quality of life for billions of people Energy to provide for wealth and well-being Only a free market can bring this about Who will advocate for effective solutions? If free-market advocates shirk their responsibility, others will dictate policy When will you stand up and offer solutions?

16. What I Said Everyone in this room understands how climate works well enough -- arguing about the details is not worth your time Climate will change a lot in the next generation, and policy will be enacted in response to perceived needs The political right has been AWOL in proposing policy solutions to a global problem The world needs you to be engaged!