1. STRATUS CONSULTING Adaptation in the United States: Surging Ahead or Sputtering Along? Joel B. Smith Stratus Consulting Boulder CO 2 nd National Conference on Climate Change UNAM Mexico City October 18, 2011

2. STRATUS CONSULTING Review Different Levels of Government Adaptation in US Federal government is at the top –Smallest part of pyramid States are in the middle Localities at the bottom –Largest part of pyramid

3. STRATUS CONSULTING Review Different Levels of Government Adaptation in US Start at Bottom Adaptation at Local Level Adaptation at State Level Adaptation in Federal Government Selective Examples

4. STRATUS CONSULTING Local Level Adaptation

5. STRATUS CONSULTING New York City Strong Executive Leadership Involve researchers and practitioners Apply risk management principles –Plan for low probability high consequence outcomes Identify specific and quantifiable outcomes

6. STRATUS CONSULTING NYC Organization Mayor Bloomberg has been driving force behind the plan –What happens when his term ends? Funding from Rockefeller Foundation Convened New York Panel on Climate Change (NYPCC) –Experts who advise on science and adaptation Developed sustainability plan (PlaNYC)

7. STRATUS CONSULTING NYC Water Resources Supplies –Protect Watershed –Invest in pipelines for redundancy Water Quality –Bluebelt wetlands –Improve Combined Sewer Overflow retention –Improve storm sewers

8. STRATUS CONSULTING Other NYC Initiatives Plan for disasters –Heat waves, heavy rains, storm surges, high winds… Improve air quality (contributes to 6% of deaths) –Use of more fuel efficient vehicles and cleaning –Phase out dirtiest heating oils Plant 1 million trees

9. STRATUS CONSULTING Chicago Preparing for heat waves –1995 hundreds dead –Heat watch warning system –Cooling centers Protect air quality Reduce stormwater risks Use green urban design –Green infrastructure becoming more popular

10. STRATUS CONSULTING Small Cities: Keene NH and Spartanburg SC Keene now plans for 200-year flood to address greater variability –Hurricane Irene Spartanburg built on knowledge of climate change impacts to improve resilience

11. STRATUS CONSULTING Regional Cooperation: Southeast Florida Regional Climate Change Compact Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach and Monroe Signed compact in 2009 to coordinate mitigation and adaptation Develop regional action plan Seek federal funding for modeling and plan preparation Propose state policies

12. STRATUS CONSULTING Water Resources Adaptation Leadership by Water Utilities

13. STRATUS CONSULTING Water Utility Climate Alliance (WUCA) 10 major water utilities across the US e.g., –SF, NYC, Seattle, MWD… Common voice on climate change adaptation matters Sponsor research to support adaptation –Use of climate and water models –Decision making

14. STRATUS CONSULTING Seattle Approach: Invest in actions that mitigate uncertainty and enhance flexibility and resiliency so that system managers can continue to meet their responsibilities. Adjust operations to test system flexibility Enhance information networks Engage in ongoing research Maintain portfolio of response options

15. STRATUS CONSULTING Seattle Climate Change Scenario Analysis Source: City of Seattle

16. STRATUS CONSULTING State Government Adaptations Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change

17. STRATUS CONSULTING State Governments Several have taken a leadership role Some have done statewide priority setting with stakeholders –Maryland, Alaska, Florida Others have emphasized sector adaptation

18. STRATUS CONSULTING California Extensive research effort on impacts and adaptation Statewide adaptation strategy –Coordinated DNR Water Resources –Dept Water Resources Coastal Resources –Cal Coastal Commission Forests –DNR

19. STRATUS CONSULTING California Adaptation Objectives Reduce per capita water use by 20% by 2020 Avoid significant new building in areas vulnerable to –Erosion –Flooding –Fire

20. STRATUS CONSULTING Maryland Initially focused on sea level –Detailed level of planning Expanding planning to a number of sectors –Human health –Agriculture –Chesapeake Bay and aquatic ecosystems

21. STRATUS CONSULTING One Key Issue: Leadership Florida demonstrates that attention to adaptation can change with leadership Gov. Christ was very committed to action on climate change –Stakeholder process to set priorities –Florida Energy and Climate Commission Work has for the most part been stopped by Gov. Scott and Legislature –FLECC abolished Demonstrates need to institutionalize adaptation

22. STRATUS CONSULTING Federal Action on Adaptation Adaptation planning at agency level Coordinating committees by sector National sector plans No integrated national strategy

23. STRATUS CONSULTING Executive Order 13514 Signed Oct 5, 2009 Require each agency write Strategic Sustainability Performance Plan Manage effects of climate change on each agency’s operation and mission Each agency just completed a vulnerability analysis

24. STRATUS CONSULTING Agency Adaptation Planning Some started under Bush Administration Some undertaking coordinating role Some supporting adaptation by stakeholders Some focusing on vulnerability of their facilities

25. STRATUS CONSULTING Department of Interior Most ambitious adaptation efforts Landscape Conservation Cooperatives –Coordinate activities at ecosystem level Regional Science Centers –USGS

26. STRATUS CONSULTING Environmental Protection Agency Office of Water Strategic Plan on Adaptation –Manage impacts of climate change on water resources Climate Ready Water Utilities –Support water utilities on adaptation Climate Resilience and Evaluation Awareness Tool –Tool to help utilities analyze vulnerability and adaptation

27. STRATUS CONSULTING Other Agency Efforts Department of Transportation –Supporting Adaptation Planning in States and Fish and Wildlife Refuges Federal Emergency Management Agency –Updating flood zone maps Defense Department –Analyzing risks of climate change to US facilities NASA –Analyzing risks to its facilities

28. STRATUS CONSULTING Federal Agency Adaptations Some agencies focusing on their own assets and missions, e.g., Defense Others taking on a coordinating role, e.g., Interior

29. STRATUS CONSULTING Concluding Thoughts Where is the US on Adaptation?

30. STRATUS CONSULTING Is the US Surging Ahead or Sputtering Along? We’re not The Leader in adaptation –Other countries such as the UK more organized Action has mainly been self-motivated –No requirement to adapt CA requiring adaptation by localities Adaptation is not required for all nor is it coordinated –For example, no minimum standards

31. STRATUS CONSULTING Is the US Surging Ahead or Sputtering Along? Many state and local governments have shown leadership and developed adaptation plans –Are good models The federal government is starting to address adaptation –In early stage

32. STRATUS CONSULTING Is the US Surging Ahead or Sputtering Along? Is a voluntary effort good enough? It allows for experimentation, which is good Will not create the comprehensiveness needed to address adaptation The glass is half full, but needs more water!

33. STRATUS CONSULTING Some Lessons Learned Importance of Executive leadership –Strong signal needed from the top Importance of central coordination –Out of office of Chief Executive or Department/Agency/Ministry Vulnerability assessments needed Yet, most adaptations are “no regrets”

34. STRATUS CONSULTING Some Lessons Learned Adaptation is not solved overnight –It takes persistence –Effective governance on adaptation can take a decade to build Adaptation is a process, not a single decision –Must be revisited and revisited Networks are critical –Need to have groups, sectors that will affect each other work together Agriculture and Water Resources Involve key stakeholders

35. STRATUS CONSULTING Thank you! jsmith@stratusconsulting.com