1. Fitting on the Earth and the Need for Integrative Analysis Robert Socolow Princeton University socolow@princeton.edu A talk for ARPA-E Washington, DC June 3, 2010 socolow@princeton.edu

2. Fitting on the Earth “Fitting on the earth” has become a dominant task for the next several decades. ARPA-E can enhance both its in-house decision- making and the overall national research enterprise by fostering analytical work that deepens our understanding of this new bundle of issues. In this talk, I have sought messages for ARPA-E and, more generally, for ARPA-X.

3. Planetary carbon

4. The Deutsche Bank Carbon Counter Penn Station, New York City June 18, 2009, about 9:15 a.m. Real time: www.dbcca.com

5. The Deutsche Bank Carbon Counter Penn Station, New York City June 18, 2009, about 9:15 a.m. Real time: www.dbcca.com The number shown, about 3.6 trillion tons, is the mass of CO 2 that would provide as much warming (“forcing”) as is provided by all the current long-lived gases (Kyoto and Montreal gases). The mass of CO 2 in the atmosphere is about 3.0 trillion tons. The number climbs 750 ton/second, or two-thirds of one percent per year.

6. Past, present, and potential future levels of CO 2 in the atmosphere Rosetta Stone: To raise the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere by one part per million: add 7.8 billion tons of CO 2, in which are 2.1 billon tons of carbon. Billions of tons of carbon “Doubled”CO 2 Today Pre-Industrial Glacial 3000 4400 2200 1500 billions of ATMOSPHERE (570) (285) (190) Billions of tons of carbon “Doubled”CO 2 Today Pre-Industrial Glacial billions of tons CO 2 ATMOSPHERE (ppm) (570) (380) (285) (190) HEADROOM

7. About half of the CO 2 we burn stays in the atmosphere for centuries ≈8≈8 ≈7≈7 = 15 Ocean Land Biosphere (net) Fossil Fuel Burning + 30 800 billion tons carbon billion tons go in ATMOSPHERE billion tons added every year = billion tons go out Ocean Land Biosphere (net) Fossil Fuel Burning + 3000 billion tons CO 2 15 billion tons go in ATMOSPHERE billion tons added every year Today, global per-capita emissions are ≈ 4 tCO 2 /yr.

8. ActivityAmount producing 4 ton CO 2 /yr emissions a) Drive24,000 km/yr, 5 liters/100km (45 mph) b) Fly24,000 km/yr c) Heat homeNatural gas, average house, average climate d) Lights 300 kWh/month when all coal-power * (600 kWh/month, natural-gas-power) Four ways to emit 4 ton CO 2 /yr (today’s global per capita average)

9. 9 There is no “line in the sand” No “safety on one side, hazard on the other” Our assignment is to manage risk. Eventual temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 0°C1°C2°C3°C4°C5°C 5%95% 400 ppm C02e 550 ppm C02e 650 ppm C02e 750 ppm C02e 450 ppm C02e “Climate sensitivity” distribution Source: Stern Review, 2006, Executive Summary, p. v, citing 1) Wigley and Raper (2001) and Murphy et. al. (2004) for the wide green lines, triangles, and circles; and 2) (Meinshausen, 2006) for the narrow blue lines and arrows. Based on a slide by Hal Harvey. FATTAILIA

10. What the Science Tells Us 1.The planet is warming, and human activity is largely responsible. Three additional messages: 2.Both mild and severe climate change is consistent with each future global atmospheric gas concentration. This frustrating lack of predictability has its roots in poorly understood feedbacks (notably regarding clouds, ice, and the biosphere). 3.Science cannot now rule out very bad outcomes. Climate change could be extremely disruptive – well beyond what is conveyed in descriptions of mean expectations. 4.Scientists are not on the verge of breakthroughs that will result in a significantly better predictability. We are not only flying blind, but the fog is not about to lift.

11. Which argument is stronger? Act because of what we know. Act because of what we don’t know.

12. Does the U.S. need an ARPA-C for climate science? Is there any field of use-inspired science that does not need an ARPA-X?

13. The Wedge Model: Quantifying the task of significantly reducing global emissions of CO 2

14. Historical emissions 0 30 60 1950200020502100 Historical Emissions 6 Billions of tons of CO 2 emitted per year

15. 6 Interim Goal Current path = “ramp ” Historical emissions Flat path Stabilization Triangle 0 30 60 1950200020502100 The Stabilization Triangle Today and for the interim goal, global per-capita emissions are ≈ 4 to 5 tCO 2 /yr. Billions of tons of CO 2 emitted per year

16. 6 Current path = “ramp ” Flat path 0 30 60 1950200020502100 Stabilization Wedges 16 GtC/y Eight “wedges” Historical emissions Interim Goal

17. What is a “Wedge”? A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 4 GtCO 2 /yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere. 4 GtCO 2 /yr 50 years Total = 100 Gigatons CO 2 A wedge avoids the emissions of 100 GtCO 2. This is six trillion dollars at $60/tCO 2.

18. Energy Efficiency Decarbonized Electricity Decarbonized Fuels 20102060 30 GtCO 2 /yr 60 GtCO 2 /yr Methane Management Triangle Stabilization Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Eight Wedges in six broad categories Extra Carbon in Forests, Soils, Oceans Smaller Families

19. “The Wedge Model is the iPod of climate change: You fill it with your favorite things.” David Hawkins, NRDC, 2007. Therefore, prepare to negotiate with others, who have different favorite things.

20. A U.S. View of Wedges: Demand

21. A New Report: U.S. focus

22. U.S. Fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions U.S. total emissions: 6.0 billion tons CO 2 Source: J. Sweeney, 2009

23. Legacy: National Highway System

24. Efficient Use of Fuel

25. U.S. vehicle-miles traveled, two views Sources: Left: U.S. PIRG Education Fund, 2007. The Carbon Boom: State and National Trends in Carbon Dioxide Emissions Since 1990, April 2007 (44 pp.), p. 27. Right: American Physical Society, 2008. Energy Future: Think Efficiency.

26. At the power plant, CO 2 heads for the sky, most electrons head for buildings! U.S. CO2 emissions, 2007, electricity allocated. Source: J. Sweeney, 2009.

27. Efficient Use of Electricity Measure, learn, iterate. (Trust, but verify.)

28. U.S. Electricity Growth Continues to Slow (3-year rolling average percent growth) Projections Period Annual Growth 1950s 9.0 1960s 7.3 1970s 4.2 1980s 3.1 1990s 2.4 2000-2006 1.2 2006-2030 1.1 Exponential curve (20 years for rate to fall by half): EIA Percent per year

29. U.S. Electricity Growth Continues to Slow (3-year rolling average percent growth) Projections Period Annual Growth 1950s 9.0 1960s 7.3 1970s 4.2 1980s 3.1 1990s 2.4 2000-2006 1.2 2006-2030 1.1 Nothing in physics or economics forbids negative values! Blue dashed line: RHS. Percent per year

30. Is peak energy demand behind us? If the U.S. takes efficiency seriously, annual consumption from now on could be less than in any past year – for both: U.S. oil consumption U.S. electric power consumption The consequences of falling demand are more profound for power than for fuel, because power plants are around a lot longer than vehicles. However, the two domains are becoming linked by batteries and fuel cells and centralized polygeneration.

31. How can ARPA-E address the post- consumer society, where smart technology and changes in tastes result in a decline in the absolute throughput of natural resources? More generally, how can ARPA-E identify and confront sacred cows?

32. A U.S. View of Wedges: Supply

33. Legacy: U.S. Power Plants Source: Benchmarking Air Emissions, April 2006. The report was co-sponsored by CERES, NRDC and PSEG.

34. U.S. Power Plant Capacity, by Vintage Issues: Grandfathering, retirement, relicensing, retrofit, repowering Source: EIA. Joseph.Beamon@eia.doe.gov

35. Zero minus zero equals zero If there is no load growth* and there are no retirements, then nothing new is needed. Important implications for ARPA-E. *Demand can grow in some regions and fall in others.

36. CO 2 Capture and Storage (CCS) Graphics courtesy of DOE Office of Fossil Energy and Statoil ASA For power and synthetic fuels

37. The Future Coal Power Plant Shown here: After 10 years of operation of a 1000 MW coal plant, 60 Mt (90 Mm 3 ) of CO 2 have been injected, filling a horizontal area of 40 km 2 in each of two formations. Assumptions: 10% porosity 1/3 of pore space accessed 60 m total vertical height for the two formations. Note: Plant is still young. Injection rate is 150,000 bbl(CO 2 )/day, or 300 million standard cubic feet/day (scfd). 3 billion barrels, or 6 trillion standard cubic feet, over 60 years.

38. U.S. CO 2 pipeline infrastructure Weybourne

39. 765 kV backbone for 350 GW wind Source: American Electric Power, 2007. http://www.aep.com/about/i765project/docs/WindTransmissionVisionWhitePaper.pdf. 19,000 miles of new 765 kV line. $60 billion. There are no green electrons.

40. Fission Power – with Dry Cask Storage Site: Surry station, James River, VA; 1625 MW since 1972-73,. Credit: Dominion.

41. Wise Revival Safety: Create counter-incentives to plant relicensing, so that aging plants are retired. Storage: Revise the contract with society in favor of retrievable storage. Deploy dry-cask storage. Proliferation, plutonium: Indefinitely postpone U.S. reprocessing and end reprocessing elsewhere. Stay with once-through fuel cycles until qualitatively better international governance of nuclear power is in place. Proliferation, uranium: Establish a one-tier world. Immediately place all enrichment facilities, including ours, under international governance. Investigate natural-uranium power concepts.

42. Every strategy can be implemented well or poorly Every “solution” has a dark side. ConservationRegimentation RenewablesCompeting uses of land “Clean coal”Mining: worker and land impacts Nuclear powerNuclear war GeoengineeringTechnological hegemony Risk Management: We must trade the risks of disruption from climate change against the risks of disruption from mitigation. We and our children and grandchildren will search for an optimum pace.

43. Hippocratic Oath I will apply, for the benefit of the sick, all measures that are required, avoiding those twin traps of overtreatment and therapeutic nihilism.* * Modern version, Louis Lasagna, 1964, http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/doctors/oath_modern.html http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/doctors/oath_modern.html

44. Mitigation is Not Risk-Free Therefore, the lowest conceivable greenhouse-concentration targets are not optimal.

45. How can ARPA-E confront the technological life cycle: repair, rebuild, retire? How can ARPA-E identify and address an Achilles heel of a new technology (proliferation-prone, leak- prone, land-intensive, dependent on scarce elements, …) without suppressing the innovative spirit?

46. One-Billion High Emitters

47. Per-capita fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions, 2005 1- World emissions: 27 billion tons CO 2 STABILIZATION AVERAGE TODAY Source: IEA WEO 2007

48. “Stabilization”: 1 ton CO 2 /yr per capita It is not sufficient to limit emissions in the prosperous parts of the world and allow the less fortunate to catch up. Such an outcome would overwhelm the planet. The emissions of the future rich must eventually equal the emissions of today’s poor, … …not the other way around.

49. Beyond per capita If the unit of attention is the nation: Safe is not fair. Fair is not safe. Can the unit of attention be other than the nation? Can the unit of attention be the individual? Can we move beyond “per capita” and look inside countries.

50. Binned global population and emissions, 2003 Vertical axis: tons CO 2 per person per year. Shown: Global population, CO 2 emissions only from fossil fuels. Bin boundaries are per capita values today for Brazil (2) and European Union (10) “High emitters” “Low emitters”

51. 1.2 billion “high emitters” in 2030, 60% of global CO 2 emissions Vertical axis: tons CO 2 per person per year. Shown: Global population, CO 2 emissions only from fossil fuels. Bin boundaries are per capita values today for Brazil (2) and European Union (10) 8% of emissions. “High emitters” “Low emitters” 60% of emissions

52. 2-10 <2 >10 Base national allocations on high emitters

53. A 2009 Paper Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, July 21, 2009, vol. 106 no. 29, pp. 11884-11888 Published online before print July 6, 2009, doi: 10.1073/pnas.0905232106 Available at: http://www.pnas.org/content/106/29/11884http://www.pnas.org/content/106/29/11884

54. Rank all people in the world, highest to lowest emissions 2003, 26 GtCO 2 total 2030, 43 GtCO 2 total For 2030, use EIA regional CO 2 projections, assume regional emissions distributions are unchanged.

55. Count high-emitting individuals GtCO 2 2003, 26 GtCO 2 2030, 43 GtCO 2 2030

56. National Emissions Target Required Reductions Personal Emissions Cap +++++ + = = Individual emissions above the cap determine the required reduction Source: Steve Pacala, private communication, 2008

57. Regional emissions in 2030 30 Gt global cap, 10.8 individual cap For a 30 GtCO 2 global cap in 2030, four regions have comparable assignments Non-OECD minus China 30 Gt global cap, 10.8 t individual cap U.S. China OECD minus U.S.

58. Might China and the U.S. reach a deal? Dashed lines: EIA Business As Usual Solid lines: Global cap is 30 GtCO 2 in 2010, 33 GtCO 2 in 2020, 30 GtCO 2 in 2030. China U.S. This scheme, based on individual emissions, results in much less international trade in CO 2 emissions than most other schemes. Rest of world Rest of OECD

59. The developing world will decide what kind of planet we live on. For a while longer, the industrialized countries will lead. But “R-P countries” will dominate global environmental problem-solving over this century. R-P countries are countries with a significant fraction of rich people sharing global consumptions patterns and abundant abject poverty.

60. How can ARPA-E promote globally coordinated green innovation?

61. What about Global Poverty?

62. 2-10 <2 >10 Population distribution across 4 regions The poor need not be denied fossil fuels

63. Combine a global-emissions cap and an individual-emissions floor Individual cap: without floor: 10.8 t CO 2 with floor: 9.6 t CO 2 1 The world’s poor do not need to be denied fossil fuels

64. What does 1 tCO 2 /person-yr allow today? Direct Energy Use Household rate of use (4.5 people) Individual emissions (kgCO 2 /yr) Cooking1 LPG canister per month 120 Transport70 km by bus, car, motorbike per day 220 Electricity800 kWh per year160 Total500 1 tCO2/yr: Double the “direct” emissions to account for “indirect” emissions.

65. Should ARPA-E tithe? Could a tenth of ARPA-E be devoted to finding technological solutions for the energy problems of the very poor?

66. Concluding Thoughts

67. Grounds for optimism The world today has a terribly inefficient energy system. Carbon emissions have just begun to be priced. Most of the 2060 physical plant is not yet built.

68. Prospicience Prospicience: “The art [and science] of looking ahead.” In the past 50 years we have become aware of the history of our Universe, our Earth, and life. Can we achieve a comparable understanding of human civilization at various future times: 50 years ahead – vs. 500 years and vs. 5000 years? We have scarcely begun to ask: What are we on Earth to do?

69. Never in history has the work of so few led to so much being asked of so many! The “few” are the climate science researchers. The “many” are the rest of us. Understandably, we wish we lived on a larger planet, with a larger atmosphere so that our emissions would be less significant – and also a planet with larger fisheries, bigger forests, more abundant ground water, so that all our actions mattered less.

70. Fitting on the Earth But our planet, Earth, is the only one we have. Fortunately: Our science has discovered threats fairly early; We can identify a myriad of helpful technologies; We have a moral compass that tells us to care not only about those alive today but also about the collective future of our species. What has seemed too hard becomes what simply must be done.

71. Co-authors, recent papers Wedges Steve Pacala Roberta Hotinski Jeff Greenblatt Nuclear power Alex Glaser One-billion high emitters Shoibal Chakravarty Ananth Chikkatur (Harvard) Heleen de Coninck (Energy Research Center of the Netherlands) Steve Pacala Massimo Tavoni (FEEM, Milan)