1. Electronic Journals: a Delphi Survey Alice Keller, ETH-Bibliothek Zurich Global 2000, Brighton

2. The Delphi method Written survey in 3 rounds (Feb - Dec 99) Round 3 Round 1Round 2 Feedback

3. Expert panel: professional background  45 experts

4. Expert panel: geographical distribution

5. Selected results of Delphi survey

6. Query: „Journals with peer review will represent the most important form of formal scholarly communication.“

7. Query: „The current situation with digital doppelgängers represents a transient period.“ (median: 2005)

8. Query: „Many marginal journal titles will disappear or transmute into other entities.“ (median 2005)

9. Serials crisis Serials crisis Electronic journals per se will not put an end to the serials crisis. However, new technologies can offer solutions in various areas and thereby serve to alleviate the situation.

10. Solutions offered by new technologies F New access models: –consortia –electronic document delivery –pay-per-use access models F New price models (e.g. SPARC) F New solutions for marginal journal titles F DIY publishing in the internet

11. Access model Agree 87,2% Don‘t agree: 7,7% (Not valid: 5.1.%) Query: „Libraries will in future offer unrestricted access to core journals through license agreements and pay-per-use access to journals of secondary importance.“

12. There is no consensus what the journal of the future will look like Various scenarios suggested by experts: F customized article collections F journals as envelopes will disappear F journals will be replaced by dynamic information objects

13. - different publishing formats - different access models - different cost model Considering the variety of options and requirements it is likely that librarians will in future be confronted with a considerable range of - different publishing formats - different access models - different cost model Choosing the right option will be our challenge for the future

14. The End