2. REACT Workshop Planning Business Trajectories Present & Future - … from an Airline’s Perspective - Seville, June 24 th, 2008 Ekkehard Gutt ASM - Planning & ATM EK Flight Operations Support

3. How to predict the best Route …

4. 1. Status quo

5. Status Quo  Oil reaches record $140 a barrel.  Air traffic to double until 2020.  Available capacity on current ATS-Route structure not sufficient – “ground based infrastructure”.  Missing civil/military cooperation and coordination in most part of the world.  Aeronautical Information Management not ‘state-of- the-art’.  Ground Delays / Enroute Delays.  Not all airspace stakeholders are involved in future decision-making.  National borders – not traffic flows – dictate the airspace environment.

6. FANS-1/A – Aircraft Equipment Typically the Emirates Aircraft equipage includes : –ADS-C & CPDLC –VHF & SATCOM Data Links via ACARS –FMS & RNAV –3 Inertial Reference Systems –Classic Navigation Systems (VOR, DME, ILS, etc) –GPS How are these technically quite modern aircraft treated in the environment?

7. Current Airspace environment (?) Why do we operate a brand-new 300t aircraft on Non-Precision Approaches using 60 year old criteria and profiles? (Emirates is authorised for 7 Approach Types; we would just like to operate two in the future: ILS & RNAV.) RNAV and RNP form the globally harmonised ICAO “Performance Based Navigation” (PBN) concept. RNAV/RNP is a proven method for effectively increasing the safety, dependability and efficiency of flight operations. (ICAO Doc 9613 (PBN Manual)).

8. The “Casablanca Curve”…

10. The “Casablanca Curve”… - Available FPL-Routing CMN-DXB

11. All airspace is the concern of ATM and an usable resource

12. 2. Where are we today? - some examples…

13. AUSOTS – Australia / NOROTS - Canada

14. UPR (User Preferred Routes): DXB-PER-PER

15. “DARP”-ing in the Pacific Region… “Dynamic Airborne Re-route Procedure”

16. Organised Track Systems/Random Routes in Oceanic Airspaces

17. NavCanada: Traffic Density Analyser (TDA) The TDA is the collaboration tool for NAT- (North Atlantic) Operators and Air Traffic Service Providers. It is the first time in aviation history that a collaborative decision making-tool is available on a global basis.

18. 31 Bottom

19. Runway Averages AAL01 Close

20. Ground Status FL350 ERAKA (12)

21. 3. “On-Time” Management

22. Airport “On-Time” Management

23. How can we improve the Airport “On-Time” Management?

24. -This is an important aspect for trajectory operations in regards to predictability! In order to solve the general issue of on-time performance at the Airport, all stakeholders have to be involved: Airport “On-Time” Management Airport Operators ATC Airlines Handling Agents Regulators …

25. 4. Trajectory Prediction

26. Trajectory Contract for airspace access “CONTRACT” ATC (1) ATC (2) “CONTRACT” FIR (1) FIR (2)

27. EGDS – Emirates Ground Data Link System Datalink Service Provider Ground Earth Station Remote Ground Station Air Traffic Control / ATC Aircraft Flight Management System (FMS) CPDLC / ADS SATCOM Satellite GPS Satellite Airline Operations Control / AOC GND COMM NETWORK DSP NETWORK AIR / GND COMM AIRCRAFT AVIONICS SATELLITE CONSTELLATION EGDS LIDO

28. Trajectory Intend - Transmission

29. Trajectory Prediction

31. Detecting conflicts and the resolution (revised flight paths) V = > V = < FL = + FL = =

32. Trajectory Prediction – Coordination of Problems

33. Trajectory Prediction Transmit & Receive… FPL Intend Separation Coordination of “problems” Time 4D-Trajectories: Latitude, Longitude, Altitude, Time Winds Weather hazards Traffic hazards Fuel Terrain hazards …

34. Trajectory Prediction ATC AOC

35. Airspace is the resource Today: ATS-Routes

36. Airspace is the usable resource Tomorrow: Airspace Increase of capacity…

37. 5. The role of Air Traffic Control

38. ATC vs. ATM Air Traffic CONTROL Air Traffic MANAGEMENT

39. The role of ATC ATM in the future  Planned Routing / Dynamic changes of Trajectories  Conflict Management – Controller has still authority!  Terminal Airspace – Tailored SIDs/Tailored STARs  Providing, Sharing and Collecting information (traffic, WX, AIP, NOTAM…)  “AIM”  Coordination Civil/Military Users and Airspaces  Traffic Flow depends on most current information  (Flexible) Responding to changing conditions  Search and Rescue  Security and Safety  Transform global ATM  Support/cooperate in technology development ICAO Annex 11 (SARPs) Air Traffic Services ICAO Doc 4444 (PANS-ATM) Air Traffic Management

40. 6. The FMS and the EFF/EFP What will the future bring us?

41. Most current FMCs cannot easily meet a Required Time of Arrival (RTA) on descent. Terminal airspace/Arrivals: typically radar vectoring off the path by ATC to make adjustments. Current on-board FMS data base has limited capacity that will be exceeded in the future by more RNAV arrivals at more locations (limited memory). Many systems and database entries in the cockpit remind me of an ‘Excel Sheet’ environment. Today’s limitations

42. The FMS and the EFB/EFF technology The average mobile phone has 300 times the memory and processing power of a FMS. The development of the EFB technology is a consequence of where we stand with the FMS technology. Ideally - on future aircraft types - concepts of FMS and EFB development should lead to a single integrated system.

43. EFB/EFF Evolution – Situational Display B4776/08 NOTAMN Q)LRBB/QRRCA/IV/BO/W/285/460/4727N02702E045 A)LRBB B)0806230900 C)0806231300 E)RESTRICTED AREA LRR6 ACTIVATED. MIL FLT FLT WILL BE COORD BTN CIV AND MIL ATC EXPECT RADAR VECTORING F)FL100 G)FL240

44. Drift-down/Depressurisation – Situational Display

45. 7. Conclusion…

46. Business Trajectories Isn’t it all about information management and data sharing?

47. Our Vision for the future… “Our vision for our future global ATM system is one where a pilot can fly into JFK International Airport in New York, Changi Airport in Singapore or Capital Airport in Beijing without any differences in equipment, procedures, or the quality of air traffic services.” FAA Administrator Marion Blakey Increased capacity in the airspace, higher flexibility and improved cost efficiency can only be achieved in a regional ATM system. We need to ensure there is no a disconnect between Europe, Canada, Australia or the U.S. Dubai DjakartaStockholm Lagos

48. Summary… Record high fuel costs Global concerns about the environment: fuel saving and reducing emissions are both in everybody’s interest More operational flexibility – combined with the existing modern technology – is essential to meeting the airspace demands. Consideration of a regional ATM-System All airspace is the concern of ATM & is a useable resource The Airlines are more than happy to assist and to work together Quality of Aeronautical Information Management has to improve Continuous military/civil coordination

50. Thank you for attention. Ekkehard Gutt Emirates Flight Operations Support ASM – Planning & ATM Dubai/U.A.E. Phone: +971 4 708 4307 Fax: +971 4 286 4085 SITA: DXBONEK AFTN: OMDBUAEK ekkehard.gutt@emirates.com