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Longitudinal Data Across Multiple Stages Of Life Substantive Applications Hanno Petras, Ph.D. Johns Hopkins University.

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Presentation on theme: "Longitudinal Data Across Multiple Stages Of Life Substantive Applications Hanno Petras, Ph.D. Johns Hopkins University."— Presentation transcript:

1 Longitudinal Data Across Multiple Stages Of Life Substantive Applications Hanno Petras, Ph.D. Johns Hopkins University

2 Collaborators Hendricks Brown, USF Howard Chilcoat, JHU Nick Ialongo, JHU Shep Kellam, AIR & JHU Phil Leaf, JHU Bengt Muthen, UCLA Prevention Science Methodology Workgroup

3 Paper 1: Developmental Antecedents and Malleability of Antisocial Personality Disorder - Long-term Effects of a Universal Classroom Based Preventive Intervention

4 Developmental Relationship between Aggressive Behavior and Antisocial Personality Disorder (ASPD) in One Cohort of Control Boys (N=138) BIC=2516.86 Entropy=0.861 # of Iterations=93 69.7% 35.0% 10.7% Prevalence of ASPD F=Fall S=Spring Elementary SchoolMiddle School

5 Methodological Topics in Growth Modeling Impact of particular time points (e.g., in middle school) for the prediction of distal outcome, over and above class membership (u on Ys) Individual intervention impact over and above class membership Atypical individual development --Outliers Modeling of Subgroup variation within Growth Modeling (e.g., in control conditions, cohorts)

6 Paper 2: Specificity/Sensitivity of Predicting Developments in Aggression Leading to Violent Juvenile Arrest

7 Developmental Relationship between Aggressive Behavior and Violent Juvenile Arrest in Two Cohorts of Control Boys (N=598) BIC=7343.99 Entropy=0.789 # of Iterations=149 34.4% 30.0% 5.4% Prevalence of Arrest F=Fall S=Spring Sensitivity

8 Methodological Topics in Predicting Developmental Trajectories Sensitivity (false positives) versus Specificity (false negatives) Treatment of Missing Data Not only prediction of development, but also quality of prediction regarding distal outcomes

9 Time-to-Event Analysis Interval Censoring, in addition to left and right censoring (i.e., Missing Data problem) Analysis of Survival leading to Growth development (e.g. timing of school suspension may lead to different trajectories in aggression) Bivariate Survival analysis (Time to first drug use and time to first depressive episode in one model)

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