1. Foster Care Reentry Going Beyond 12 Months of Follow-up Terry V. Shaw, MSW, PhD Daniel Webster, MSW, PhD University of California, Berkeley School of Social Welfare This research is funded by the California Department of Social Services and the Stuart Foundation Presented at the 46th Annual National Association for Welfare Research and Statistics (NAWRS) Workshop. August 23, 2006

2. For an Electronic Copy of Presentation: http://cssr.berkeley.edu/CWSCMSreports/presentations/

3. Research on Reentry to Care Length of Time in Care prior to Reunification. Type of placement a child experiences in foster care. Number of placements while in foster care. Race/Ethnicity of the Child. Age of child at entry into foster care. Reason for removal or entry into the foster care system. Caregiver Drug/Alcohol use. Poverty status (children receiving AFDC). Marital status (single or multi-parent homes). Geographic location (urban/rural). Child health factors.

4. Study Population First Entries to Child Welfare Supervised Foster Care in California (1998-2001). Initial stays greater than 5 days. Children reunifying within 12 months of initial entry into foster care. Missing placement types excluded. Question: Are there differences between the children reentering care within 12 months and those reentering care from 12 to 24 months?

5. Full Model Used for Analysis included… Ethnicity, Gender, Entry Year, Age at Entry, Length of time in Care, Reason for removal, County Size, Presence of siblings, AFDC eligible, Predominant placement type, Child’s Health/Behavior conditions, Whether the parents have a referral to a drug/alcohol treatment program, Whether the child was removed from a single or multi-parent household, Primary language spoken at home.

6. Frequencies – Reunifications and Reentries

8. Cumulative Probability of Reentry (1-Survival) Children Reunifying within 12 months 12.28% 16.65%

9. Cumulative Probability of Reentry (1-Survival) by LOS Children Reunifying within 12 months Probability of reentry within 24 months post-reunification

10. Cumulative Probability of Reentry (1-Survival) by Ethnicity Children Reunifying within 12 months Probability of reentry within 24 months post-reunification

11. Cumulative Probability of Reentry (1-Survival) by Age Group Children Reunifying within 12 months Probability of reentry within 24 months post-reunification

12. 1.00 1.23 ns 0.35 1.00 1.31 ns 0.38 White Black Hispanic Asian Native American Other/Missing Reentry within 12 mos. Reentry 12 to 24 mos. Odds of Reentry - Ethnicity

13. Odds of Reentry – Length of time in Care 0 to 3 Months 3 to 6 Months 6 to 9 Months 9 to 12 Months Reentry within 12 mos. Reentry 12 to 24 mos. 1.00 0.79 0.61 0.63 1.00 ns 0.68

14. Odds of Reentry – Age at Entry Reentry within 12 mos. Reentry 12 to 24 mos. Less than 1 Year 1 to 2 Years 3 to 5 Years 6 to 10 Years 11 to 13 Years 14 to 15 Years 1.00 ns 0.88 0.89 ns 1.00 ns 0.83 ns 0.80* * Significant at the 0.1 level

15. Odds of Reentry – Other Factors Reentry within 12 mos. Reentry 12 to 24 mos. 2.29 1.89 1.83 1.42 Drug/Alc. Serv. Title IVE Eligible. Condition MH Condition Physical Condition Behavioral 1.98 2.11 1.55 1.23 1.29* 1.52* * Significant at the 0.1 level ns Single Parent 1.15

16. Conclusions Before finalizing models, we will explore issue of potential bias introduced by stages of incidental selectivity (Berk & Ray, 1982). Some differences exist in the children that reenter care between 0-12 months and 12-24 months. African American children are 1.23 times more likely to reenter care within 12 months and 1.32 times more likely to reenter care between 12 and 24 months compared to white children. A longer stay in care initially is protective for reentries within 12 months (The shorter the initial stay in care the higher the likelihood of reentry). Only children in care for 9 or more months have a significantly lower odds of reentry for reentries between 12 and 24 months.

17. Conclusions (continued) Children between the ages of 3 and 10 have lower odds of reentry within 12 months compared to infants. This is somewhat different when looking at reentries between 12 and 24 months, only ages 3-5 have lower odds of reentry compared to infants. If drug/alcohol services are indicated then there is almost 2X the odds of reentry within 12 months. These odds are even higher 2.55 between 12 and 24 months. Children with existing health/behavioral/mental health issues have higher odds of reentering foster care in both periods, but the odds are greater in the 12 to 24 month group.

18. The End! Center for Social Services Research Web Page http://cssr.berkeley.edu/CWSCMSReports Terry V. Shaw – tvshaw@berkeley.edu (510) 643 - 2585 Daniel Webster – dwebster@berkeley.edu