1. Children Ever in Care Joseph Magruder, MSW Terry V. Shaw, MSW University of California, Berkeley School of Social Welfare This research is funded by the California Department of Social Services and the Stuart Foundation Presented Tuesday, August 30, 2005 at the 45 th Annual National Association for Welfare Research and Statistics Workshop.

2. Problem What does administrative data tell us about lifetime incidence of child welfare system involvement? In California, at least, because statewide administrative data bases have not been operational for 18 years, we can’t estimate lifetime incidence yet for 0-18 year olds. But, preliminary work for ages up to 5 holds promise.

3. Overview Discussion of cohort Examination of service incidence history for a sample cohort Next Steps

4. Cohorts California’s Administrative Data Base - the Child Welfare Services Case Management System (CWS/CMS) has been operational long enough to allow analysis of lifetime in-home child welfare services and foster care utilization for a cohort of five year old children. The cohort includes all children, not just those with child welfare involvement.

5. Cohort Composition Two types of cohort composition: –Birth: Those children who were born in the state in a specific year, e.g., 1999. –Age: Those children who because a specific age in a specific year, e.g., became 5 in 2004. Both present problems because of: –deaths, –in and out migration, and –inconsistent definitions of ethnicity.

6. Birth Cohort Denominator = Vital Statistics Birth Records Consideration of ethnicity based on mother to match birth records CWS/CMS birthplace data are incomplete so it is not possible to accurately limit cases in the numerator to children born in the state

7. Age Cohort Denominator = Department of Finance (Census based) Population Projection Consideration of ethnicity based on child to match population projections Denominator doesn’t include children who have died or moved out of the state, but numerator does

8. Child Welfare Service Incidence History for Five Year Old California Children

12. CWS Involvement Before Age 5

13. Next Steps During the next several years we well be able to analyze how cohort incidence for successive cohorts of five year olds changes over time, including changes in disproportionality. In 13 years, it will be possible to study referral incidence throughout the childhood of the cohort born in 1999.

14. The End! Terry V. Shaw – tvshaw@berkeley.edutvshaw@berkeley.edu Joseph Magruder – joemagruder@berkeley.edujoemagruder@berkeley.edu (510) 643 - 2585 Center for Social Services Research Web Page http://cssr.berkeley.edu/CWSCMSReports