1. 1 Demographic and Enrollment Information Office of the Chancellor Academic Affairs October 2006

2. 2 College-Related Demographics

3. 3 LA Basin 9 th Graders and High School Graduates

4. 4 Only 66 of Every 100 in the LA Basin In 2002-2003, there were 274,188 9th grade students in the Los Angeles Basin. In 2005-2006, the Department of Finance projected 180,340 public high school graduates. For every 100 9th graders, there were only 66 high school graduates.

5. 5 9 th Graders and High School Graduates in the Rest of the State

6. 6 Only 75 of Every 100 in the Rest of the State In 2002-2003, there were 247,125 9th grade students in the rest of the state. In 2005-2006, the Department of Finance projected, 183,895 public high school graduates. For every 100 9th graders, there were only 74 high school graduates.

7. 7 9th Graders Almost 160K 9th graders in 2002-03 did not graduate with their 360K+ other classmates in 2005-06. In 2005-06, 50% of high school graduates were in the LA Basin. If all 9th graders actually made it to the diploma, 53% of graduates would have been from the Basin. Improved h.s. graduation must be coupled with academic rigor and expectations.

8. 8 High School Graduates “Eligibles” and “Near-Eligibles” become CSU First-Time Freshmen – Admitted Regularly and By Exception Others become California Community College Students –Transferring to the CSU 3 to 7 Years Later

9. 9 Community College Transfers

10. 10 Trends in CCC Credit Enrollments – No Longer Dropping CCC credit enrollments dropped 10% (250K) between 2002-03 and 2003-04. CCC credit enrollment dropped 1% (28K) between 2003-04 and 2004-05. CCC credit enrollment INCREASED 2% (39K) between 2004-05 and 2005-06.

11. 11 AND Indicators of CCC trends about students completing coursework to transfer increased throughout the same period.

12. 12 Definitions of CCC Students CREDIT: Took a course for credit during the AY TRANSFER DIRECTED: Earned transferable math AND English semester credits TRANSFER PREPARED: Earned 56/60+ transferable semester credits with 2.0+ TRANSFER READY: Transfer Prepared AND math/English coursework earned

13. 13 California Community College Students: Credit and Transfer Directed

14. 14 California Community College Students: Transfer Directed, Prepared, and Ready

15. 15 Transfers from the CCC Of the almost 150K transfer-ready CCC students in 2003-04, only 67K made their way as transfers to the CSU or the UC in 2004-05. It is estimated that adding in transfers to independent colleges and universities would take the transfer total in 2004-05 to about 80,000 students.

16. 16 This means that almost half of the CCC students ready for CSU or UC transfer in 2003-04 actually transferred in 2004-05. Preliminary data suggests that the same holds true for 2004-05 transfer-ready students. More executive outreach between CSU and CCC regional partners may need to be undertaken.

17. 17 Example 1: Dominguez Hills In fall 2005, DH had 11 feeder CCC campuses that provided 20 or more transfers. These CCCs sent 906 fall 2005 transfers to DH. They sent a total of 4,000+ transfers to the CSU in total and about 1,600+ transfers to the UC in fall 2005.

18. 18 Example 1 Continued But altogether the fall 2005 transfers total only (5,600+) 31% of the transfer-ready CCC students at these institutions. West LA, Southwest LA, LA Harbor, LB City, El Camino, and Cerritos are CCCs at which DH has a presence on which to build.

19. 19 Example 2: East Bay In fall 2005, EB had 14 feeder CCC campuses that provided 20 or more transfers. These CCCS sent almost 1,110 transfers to EB in fall 2005. These CCCs sent 3,900+ transfers to the CSU in total and 2,000+ transfers to the UC in fall 2005.

20. 20 Example 2 Continued But altogether the fall 2005 transfer total only (5,900+) 30% of the transfer-ready students at these institutions. Chabot, Las Positas, Diablo Valley, Ohlone, and Merritt are CCCs with notable transfer- readies and at which EB has a presence on which to build.

21. 21 First-Time Freshmen

22. 22 2001 CSU Eligibility Rates for California Public High School Graduates – By Region CPEC, Regional Differences in University Eligibility, FS 05-08, December 2005

23. 23 CSU Freshman Participation Rates for California Public High School Graduates: A Third of a Third

24. 24 Why Only a Third of a Third? UC and CSU eligibility overlap: The top eighth (12.5%) tend to matriculate at UC or other more selective institutions in California. While other students are leaving the state, CPEC, UC, CSU, and CCC need to track the extent to which UC and CSU eligible students are matriculating at CCC – considered by some to be another primary destination.

25. 25 LA Basin High School Graduates In 2004-05, there were 168,219 public high school graduates in the LA Basin. About 51% became California public first-time freshmen in fall 2005. Only 18% (a little under 30,000) went to the UC or the CSU. About 18,000 – or 6 of every 10 FTF at a public 4-year -- went to the CSU. Almost 56,000 LA Basin graduates went to community colleges – almost double that of the UC/CSU

26. 26 Examples of Possible HS Targets in the LA Basin 200 of the 550 graduates at Cerritos HS went to community colleges. 300 of the 600 graduates at Alhambra HS went to community colleges. 200 of the 350 graduates at Culver City HS went to community colleges. 150 of the 350 graduates of Inglewood HS went to community colleges.

27. 27 Bay Area HS Graduates In 2004-05, there were 64,533 public high school graduates in the Bay Area. About 53% became California public first-time freshmen in fall 2005. A little under a quarter (15K) went to the UC or the CSU – split about evenly. A slightly greater number and proportion -- 18.5K Bay Area graduates -- went to community colleges.

28. 28 Examples of Possible Targets in the Bay Area 180 of the almost 400 Alameda graduates went to community colleges. 200 of the almost 600 Castro Valley graduates went to community colleges. 280 of the 390 Oakland graduates went to community colleges. 200 of the 500 Mt. Eden graduates went to community colleges.

29. 29 Commuting

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33. 33 20 Mile Coverage of CA Public High School Graduates LA Basin

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35. 35 Summary

36. 36 Summary -- 1 Academic preparedness varies considerably in the region. Commuting patterns matter in the LA Basin (and probably in the Bay Area and the San Diego Area) – with commuting ranges shrinking rapidly.

37. 37 Summary -- 2 BUT -- Students drive past some campuses or leave the area – for programs, to get away from home and experience a new place, or because the local CSU campus wasn’t a good match. To develop increased enrollments, campuses need to: offer and publicize quality programs and opportunities; know and develop the campus culture; and direct outreach to students and families with shared interests.