1. CEET1 Education and training for new entrants and existing workers Chandra Shah & Gerald Burke MONASH UNIVERSITY - ACER CENTRE FOR THE ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING 11 th Annual National CEET Conference Thursday, 1 November 2007

2. CEET2 Research questions 1.What will the Victorian workforce look like in terms of its occupational and qualification composition in 2022? 2.How many new entrants and existing workers will need to be trained in the next 15 years? 3.Will current higher education provision, in terms of quantity and distribution, need to change?

3. CEET3 Employment projections, Victoria, 2022 Occupation group‘000% % change 2007–22 Managers & administrators29910.435.3 Professionals64522.4 Associate professionals35512.318.3 Tradespersons32211.22.9 Advanced clerical & service1123.99.8 Intermediate clerical, sales & service45915.911.7 Intermediate production & transport2227.79.9 Elementary clerical, sales & service25894.5 Labourers2057.1-2.4 All2,87810013.6

4. CEET4 Qualification (level) projections, Victoria, 2022 Level‘000% % change 2007-22 Higher education1,04036.252.6 Postgraduate1916.688.5 Grad cert/dip742.6-8.7 Bachelor77627.055.5 VET1,19341.545.8 With quals.2,23377.648.9 Without quals.64422.4-37.7 All2,878100.013.6

5. CEET5 Total requirements for additional qualified people (level), Victoria, 2008-22 New entrants Existing workers upgradingTotal ‘000% % % Higher education41154.428337.769446.1 Postgraduate293.812216.315110 Grad cert/dip182.4152.0312.2 Bachelor36448.114619.550633.9 VET34545.646762.381753.9 All7561007501001,506100

6. CEET6 Destinations of graduates from Victorian universities PG Grad cert/dip BachAll Status%%Number% Australian students100 42,340100 Working in Victoria64.664.563.226,95063.6 Working interstate17.521.014.06,72015.9 Working overseas4.81.81.99902.3 Not working (resident in Vic)12.011.619.67,15016.9 Not working (resi interstate)1.1 1.35401.3 International students100 19,620100 Working in Victoria29.320.319.54,57023.3 Working interstate6.15.05.81,1505.9 Working overseas24.315.823.44,56023.2 Not working40.358.851.39,34047.6

7. CEET7 Destinations of graduates from interstate universities PG Grad c/dBachAll Status%%Number% Australian students100 117,290100 Working in Victoria4.13.81.82,9302.5 Working interstate79.182.176.391,04077.6 Working overseas5.02.11.72,6802.3 Not working (resident in Vic)0.5 0.44800.4 Not working (resi interstate)11.311.619.920,17017.2 International students100 48,950100 Working in Victoria1.20.7 4500.9 Working interstate26.920.625.712,67025.9 Working overseas33.018.425.713,93028.5 Not working38.960.447.921,90044.7

8. CEET8 Projected imbalance in number of graduates (level) for Victoria, 2008-22 (‘000) PG Grad cert/dipBachAll Requirements151.331.5506694 Total supply141104400645 Domestic graduates (from Vic universities)7674276426 International graduates (from Vic universities)2722251 Domestic graduates (from Vic universities)1492245 International graduates (from Vic universities)3025 Migration211978118 Projected surplus (+)/shortfall (-)-1071-110-49

9. CEET9 Net increase in course completions and commencements in Victoria, 2008-22 (‘000) Bachelor completions increase from 49,000 to 96,000 because every new entrant with a higher degree will also need to complete a bachelor degreeBachelor completions increase from 49,000 to 96,000 because every new entrant with a higher degree will also need to complete a bachelor degree Increase of 10,000 postgraduate degree completionsIncrease of 10,000 postgraduate degree completions Increase of 137,000 bachelor commencements (average annual increase of 8,600)Increase of 137,000 bachelor commencements (average annual increase of 8,600) Increase of 18,000 postgraduate degree commencements (average annual increase of 1,200)Increase of 18,000 postgraduate degree commencements (average annual increase of 1,200)

10. CEET10 Key themes from consultations Retirement of the baby boomer generation Tackling climate change and infrastructure renewal will require additional skill capacity in science and engineering. Widespread concern about the declining interest in science, maths and technology courses Australian industry not proactive in offering cadetships and studentships to address skill shortages Long-term earning capacity is perceived to be a factor driving student choice of courses

11. CEET11 Concluding comments Concern about Australia’s future science and engineering capacity if recent trends are not reversed Need for a national maths and science policy beginning from pre- school to postgraduate study Additional higher education funding to increase the number of HECS-HELP places (lowering fees to attract students who may have been deterred from applying) Financial assistance for students to cover living costs