2. Review and Outlook of China’s Economic Development LIU, Shijin Director of General Office and concurrently Director-General of Research Dept. of Industrial Economy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, PRC

3. I. China ’ s economic development has undergone historical changes The economy has been consistently and rapidly developed and the comprehensive national strength has been tangibly promoted. From 1978-2003, China ’ s economy witnessed an annual growth of 9.3%,ranking first in the world. In terms of comparable price, China ’ s GDP in 2003 was 9.38 times that of 1978. Compared with that of 1980, the aggregate of GDP of 2000 showed a fivefold increase and realized the goal of quadrupling the average per capita GDP in spite of the newly-added 300 million population.

4. Total value of GDP from 1978-2003 (per year) 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 787980818283848586878889909192939495969798990123 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 GDP(100 million yuan ) Growth rate( ％ )

5. The national wealth has gone up, the output of some major industrial and agricultural products has been increased by a big margin and the yield of some important products is among the first rank in the world. The economic growth has changed from a supply-restraint one to a demand-restraint one. In 2003, the average per capita GDP in China exceeded $ 1,000.

6. Changes of average per capita GDP of Chinese people from 1978-2003 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 19781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003 Per capita GDP -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Growth rate Average per capita GDP (yuan/per person ） GDPgrowth rate (%)

7. People’s life has witnessed great improvement in history. Since 1979, the consumption level of the Chinese people both in urban and rural areas has been greatly raised and its growth has become one of the fastest in the world. From 1978 to 2003, the Engel efficient (i.e. ratio between foodstuff consumption expenditure and the total consumption expenditure) of the Chinese residents both in cities and rural areas has been reduced respectively from 57.5% and 67.7% to 37.1% and 45.6 %.

8. Engel coefficient for Chinese people 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 197819801985198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003 Engel coefficient for rural families(% ） Engel coefficient for urban families （ % ）

9. Income of urban and rural people and growth rate(1973-2003) (per year) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 787980818283848586878889909192939495969798990123 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Income for city dwellers (yuan) Growth rate (%)

10. Income of rural people and growth rate (1978-2003) 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 787980818283848586878889909192939495969798990123 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Income of rural people (yuan) Growth rate (%)

11. Retail sales of social product from 1978-2003 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 787980818283848586878889909192939495969798990123 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Retail sales of social product (100 million yuan) Growth rate (%)

12. Bank deposit balance at end of the year and growth rate for city and rural residents across the country 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 19781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997 199819992000200120022003 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Bank deposit balance (100 million Yuan) Increased volume Growth rate (%)

13. The number of rural poor had been reduced from 250 million in 1978 to 30 million in 2000, showing a decrease from 30.7% to 3% accounting for the total rural population. Generally speaking, the urban and rural people have experienced two historical strides, namely from being poor to having adequate food and clothing, and from having adequate food and clothing to being well-off.

14. The economic structure is undergoing adjustment and fast upgrading and has entered the mid-phase of industrialization. The industrial structure is showing an explicit development trend from a low level to a high level and from a seriously imbalance to a basically reasonable balance. A comparative complete industrial system has been established. Hi-tech technological industry has become an important force driving forward industry and the entire economy.

15. Total investment for fixed assets and growth rate (1985-2003) 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 8586878889909192939495969798990123 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Total investment (100 million yuan) Growth rate (%)

16. Structural changes for three industries Ratio of primary industry Ratio of secondary industry Ratio of tertiary industry 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 19781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003 Ratio -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Growth rate Growth rate of primary industry Growth rate of secondary industry Growth rate of tertiary industry

17. Structural changes for employment of three industries Ratio for primary industry Ratio for secondary industry Ratio for tertiary industry 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 19781979198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003 Ratio -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Growth rate Growth rate of primary industry Growth rate of secondary industry Growth rate of tertiary industry

18. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 197819801985198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003 Urbanization rate in China Urbanization rate (%)

19. The pattern of opening up to the outside world in all fields has basically been formed and the previous closed and semi-closed economy has been initially turned into an open economy. From 1978-2003, the total volume of import and export had been increased from $ 20.64 billion to $ 851.2 billion, ranking from the 32nd place to the 4th place in the world.

20. Total volume of import and export and growth rate (1978-2003) 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 787980818283848586878889909192939495969798990123 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Total volume of import and Export ($ 100 million) Growth rate (%)

21. 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1980198519891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002 Structure changes for China ’ s export products Ratio for primary products Ratio for finished industrial products