1. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model The EcoSenseWeb integrated model First CEEH Energy Externality Workshop Roskilde, Denmark Volker Klotz IER Universität Stuttgart

2. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Outline 1.The Impact Pathway Approach: basic principle of EcoSenseWeb 2.The EcoSense Model 3.Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling i.Regional scale (European scale) modelling ii.Local scale modelling iii.Hemispheric scale modelling 4.Additional impacts, additional EcoSenseWeb-Modules 5.Results

3. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Impact Pathway Approach – Part 1 Differences of Physical Impacts Transport and Chemical Transformation Pollutant / Noise Emission Calculation is made twice: with and without project!

4. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Background Concentration of PPM2.5 [µg/m 3 ] Additional Emission of 1000 t PPM2.5 in Egypt

5. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Delta Conc. of PPM2.5 [µg/m 3 ] – 1000 t in Egypt

6. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Population Distribution

7. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Quantification of Impacts and Costs relation between pressure and impact Concentration Response Function (CRF): Example: Additional Years of Life Lost = 6.5 · 10 -5 ·  PPM2.5 · Population Number of additional Years of Life Lost [YOLL] in Egypt due to 1000 ton emission of PPM2.5 = 748 in the Northern Hemisphere = 53 in Western Europe < 0.5

8. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model YOLL  Years of Life Lost due to 1000 t PPM2.5

9. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Impact Pathway Approach Differences of Physical Impacts Transport and Chemical Transformation Monetary Valuation Pollutant/Noise Emission Calculation is made twice: with and without project!

10. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Quantification of Impacts and Costs Exposure Response Function: Additional Years of Life Lost = 6.5 · 10 -5 ·  Sulfate · Population Quantified number of additional Years of Life Lost due to one year operation : 748 YOLL Monetary value 40,000 Euro 2005 per Year of Life Lost 748 YOLL x 40000 €/YOLL = Damage costs per year: 29.2 Million Euro 2005

11. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Outline EcoSense ●EcoSense is designed for carrying out impact assessments i.with a consistent standard (ExternE Impact Pathway approach - CRF, monetary values) ii.with little data requirements (dispersion models, meteorology, receptor data) iii.for all European countries (incl. extension). ●Calculations can be performed on three spatial scales: i.Local scale ii.Regional scale iii.North hemispheric scale ●Only the emission data of the source is needed to perform calculations Coverage of EcoSenseWeb

12. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Regional atmospheric dispersion modelling ●Regional modelling with a parameterized EMEP/MSC-West Eulerian dispersion model from MET.NO  Source-Receptor (SR)-matrices for EU25 SR-matrix:  concentration increment in each grid cell per unit of emission ●Intention: estimation of impacts and damages on European scale ●More appropriate dispersion models for country scale may exist but EcoSense is designed to make calculations for all European countries. ●Ongoing improvement: Coupling of the Eulerian dispersion modell Polyphemus with EcoSenseWeb  detailed calculations feasable.

13. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Example regional model: Delta concentraion of Sulfate due to the emission of 1 t SO2 in South-Germany

14. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Local atmospheric dispersion modelling Example ISC ST (Gaussian) model results for: ● Athens area ● Stack height: 50m ● Stack Temp: 332 °K ● Emission rate: 2.5g/s ● Exit velocity: 1.7m/s ● Stack diameter: 2m SO 2 annual average Intention: estimation of impacts and damages close to the emission source (50 km around the source) Local meteorology needed to perform ISC ST  EcoSenseWeb includes a meteorological data generator

15. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Local Modelling: Meteorological data generator ●Calculates for a selected point in Europe the specific meteorological data ●  Input for the local ISC-ST model Example: Athens

16. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Northern hemispheric atmospheric dispersion model sec. particles (ug/m 3 ) Example: Conc. increment due to NOx Emission in N.America Intention: rough estimation of impacts and damages in the northern hemisphere Hemispheric modelling with EMEP/MSC- West Eulerian dispersion model from MET.NO  Source-Receptor (SR)-matrices for Emissions in Europe, North America, Far East, Middle East, and Russia. SR-Matrices for Emissions in North African countries.

17. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Further impacts considered in EcoSenseWeb ●Loss of biodiversity i.due to landuse change ii.due to acidification and eutrophication ●Assessment of external costs of GHG emissions i.Marginal damage costs ii.Marginal abatement costs ●Assessment of external costs due to radio nuclide emissions

18. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Aggregated results per SO2 & PPM2.5 – all sectors; 2010; average meteorology

19. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Aggregated results - comparison HH... Human health BioDiv... Damages on biodiversity due to acidification and eutrophication 2010, 2020... Different reference emission scenarios

20. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Contact / Links: ●Methodology: http:\\www.ExternE.info ●EcoSenseWeb: http:\\ecosenseweb.ier.uni-stuttgart.de ●Contact person: Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de

21. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Annex....

22. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Impacts included (I)

23. Volker.Klotz@ier.uni-stuttgart.de6 th February 2008The EcoSenseWeb model Impacts included (II)