1. Short-Term Air Quality Forecasts for the Pacific Northwest and Long-Range Global Change Predictions for the US Jack Chen Committee Members: Brian Lamb, Hal Westberg, George Mount, and Alex Guenther Washington State University May 4 th 2007

2. Exposures to elevated levels of ozone (O 3 ) and fine particulate matters increase respiratory illnesses, premature deaths, cardiovascular problems Regional haze, degrade visibility National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS): O 3, CO, Pb, SO 2, NO 2, PM 10, PM 2.5, PollutantConcentrationUnitsAveraging Period O3O3 80ppbv8-hour PM 2.5 15µg/m 3 Annual Mean 35µg/m 3 24-hour Air Quality Standards

3. US Regional Air Quality Counties Designated Non-attainment or Maintenance Most populated areas are in non-attainment or maintenance “Brown cloud” in Seattle US EPA (2006) 5 NAAQS Pollutants 4 NAAQS Pollutants 3 NAAQS Pollutants 2 NAAQS Pollutants 1 NAAQS Pollutant

4. Numerical Air Quality Forecasts Short-Range Forecasts – hourly air quality predictions for the next 24 hours Long-Range Predictions – general air quality conditions 50 years in the future from influence of global change

5. Air Pollution Chemistry Clean Air Photochemistry Urban Pollution Increase Ozone Production (1)NO 2 + hv  NO + O (2)O + O 2  O 3 (3)O 3 + NO  NO 2 + O 2 (4)RH + OH.   RO 2. + HO 2. + R’CHO (5)RO 2. + NO  NO 2 + RO. (6)HO 2. + NO  NO 2 + HO. NOx + VOC + sunlight  O 3 NOx (NO+NO 2 ): Combustion sources, soils, lightening VOC: Combustion sources, solvents, trees, etc

6. Air Pollution Chemistry Primary Emissions: –Smoke, dust, flyash, pollens, etc. Secondary formation: SO 2 + [OH., O 3, H 2 O]  H 2 SO 4 NO 2 + OH.  HNO 3 N 2 O 5 + H 2 O  2 HNO 3 NH 4 HSO 4, (NH 4 ) 3 H(SO 4 ) 2, (NH 4 ) 2 SO 4 NH 4 NO 3 Aromatic HC or HC-8 + [OH·, NO 3 ·, O 3 ]  SOA NH 3 NOx VOC SO 2

7. Numerical Grid Model Forecast Meteorological Model Chemical Transport Model Gridded Biogenic / Anthropogenic Emissions Forecast Air Quality Conditions Evaluate with Observational data

8. California Air Resources Board (1989) EPA: MCIP  CMAQ Short-Range Air Quality Forecast System: AIRPACT-3 AIRPACT has been providing hourly air quality forecasts for the Pacific Northwest since May 2001 O 3 CO NO 2 Primary PM tracers Secondary PM 2.5 PSO4, PNO3, PNH4, PEC, POC AIRPACT-1/2AIRPACT-3 State-of-science knowledge in atmospheric chemistry and physics Cloud effect on atmospheric chemistry Multiphase chemistry (gas, aqueous, aerosol) and aerosol dynamics CMAQ has a wide user community with active development and support from the public and EPA Gridded Emissions US EPA: (1999) Forecast Meteorology (MM5) CALMET/MCIP  CALGRID

9. Short-Range Air Quality Forecast System: AIRPACT-3 Dynamic Initial Conditions Dynamic Boundary Conditions 2005 Anthropogenic Emissions (SMOKE) Wild and Prescribed Fire Emissions Gridded Emissions EPA Biogenic Emission Model (BEIS3) EPA CMAQ WSU Dairy NH 3 Emissions Module Anthropogenic NOx Emissions Biogenic VOC Emissions

10. Short-Range Air Quality Forecast System: AIRPACT-3 AIRPACT-1, AIRPACT-2 AIRPACT-1: 62 x 67 at 4-km AIRPACT-2: 81 x 138 at 4-km 13 vertical layers AIRPACT-3 AIRPACT-3: 95 x 95 at 12-km 21 vertical layers (first layer height at 16m) Elevation

11. Dairy NH 3 Emission Module WA Dairy NH 3 (ton/yr) Housing8,634 Storage5,441 Application4,364 Total18,439 OR Dairy NH 3 (ton/yr) Housing9,469 Storage5,079 Application3,420 Total17,967

12. Wild and Prescribed Fire Emission from the Forest Service BlueSky System MODIS Image for Sept 5 2006 BlueSky System at Forest Service Observed Fire Events AIRPACT retrieves: fire location, fire size, heat flux, emissions (CO, PM 2.5, TOG) Predicted 24-hr PM 2.5 for Aug. 2006 WSU Pullman

13. AIRPACT-3 Evaluation Monitor Network# Station EPA-AQS O 3 30 EPA-AQS PM 2.5 (Speciated PM) 37 (8) IMPROVE PM 2.5 18 SWCAA PM 2.5 4 August – November 2004 Covers both ozone and PM 2.5 pollution seasons

14. Daily Max 8-hr O 3 Performance P/O vs Observed Timing errors (running 8-hr means)

15. Overall Daily Max 8-hr O 3 Performance Obs. Avg.42.9 ppbv Mod. Avg.43.0 ppbv MB2.7 ppbv ME7.2 ppbv R0.55

16. Ranked Daily Max 8-hr O 3 Performance

17. Overall 24-hr PM 2.5 Performance EPA-AQS Stations Obs. Avg.11 (μg/m 3 ) Mod. Avg.13 (μg/m 3 ) MB2.0 (μg/m 3 ) ME8.0 (μg/m 3 ) R0.46 IMPROVE Stations Obs. Avg.6.0 (μg/m 3 ) Mod. Avg.8.0 (μg/m 3 ) MB2.2 (μg/m 3 ) ME5.5 (μg/m 3 ) R0.53

18. Stagnation Event (all units in μg/m 3 )

19. Long Range Air Quality Predictions for the US general air quality conditions 50 years in the future from influence of global change

20. Impact of Global Change on Regional Air Quality Forecast Meteorology MM5 EPA CMAQ Gridded Emissions Anthropogenic Biogenic Wild Fire Simulate two 10-year periods Current case (1990-1999) vs Future case (2045-2054) O 3 CO NO 2 Primary PM tracers Secondary PM 2.5 Global Climate Model (NCAR-PCM) Global Chemistry Model (NCAR-MOZART2 ) Global Scale

21. Long Range Predictions – Domain Right: Regional Meteorology (MM5) and Air Quality (CMAQ) model domain. Left: Global Climate (PCM) and Chemistry (MOZART2) model domain.

22. Global Scenario on Future Air Quality? IPCC Global Emission Scenarios: A2—"Business as usual” 11 billion 230 Mt/yr +1.5 o C 70 Mt/yr

23. Western BC [ppbv] CurrentFuture  O3O3 385035% NO X 0.030.0444% NO Y 0.280.4769% VOC 1.12.187% Eastern BC [ppbv] CurrentFuture  O3O3 465930% NO X 0.140.2263% NO Y 0.781.1649% VOC 5.07.347% up to 500 mb

24. Future Regional Anthropogenic NOx Current Decade Future Difference current emissions (percent increase) USA (1000 ton/day) anthropogenic NO X 60 (6%)

25. Future Regional Biogenic VOC Current Decade Future Difference current emissions (percent change) USA (1000 ton C/day) anthropogenic VOC51 (+50%) biogenic VOC160 (-38%)

26. Current decade: comparison of observed and simulated ozone distributions EPA – AQS ozone data for 1994-2003 Summer

27. Current decade daily max 8-hr ozone (2nd, 20th, median, 80th and 98th percentiles)

28. Current decade episodic ozone conditions (98 th percentile daily max 8-hr ozone) Model [ppbv] Measured

29. Mean summer daily max 2-m temperature Current vs Future CurrentFuture Difference

30. (2nd, 20th, median, 80th and 98th percentiles) Future changes in daily max 8-hr ozone

31. Future Changes daily max 8-Hr ozone (Episodic Condition - 98 th Percentile) [ppbv] Current Difference Future

32. Future ozone changes at select sites Eight sites across US with 98 th percentile observed daily max. 8-hr O 3 exceed the EPA 80 ppbv standard

33. Future Changes in Episodic Ozone Season Average days per months across the eight sites.

34. Future Changes in Ozone Episode Duration Consecutive days 8-hr daily max O 3 exceed 80 ppbv % change from current decade

35. Summary Short-Term air quality forecasts –AIRPACT-3 with One-Atmosphere approach for PNW air quality –Includes dynamic treatment of anthropogenic, biogenic, dairy NH 3 and wildfire emissions –Evaluation showed good forecast performances –Peak ozone values correctly predicted, but over-estimated low levels –PM 2.5 concentrations were better captured in urban areas than rural regions –Good match with PNO3, PNH4 observations but underestimated PSO4 Long-Range air quality predictions –Coupled global and regional AQ modeling system for the US –System reproduced current observed episodic ozone conditions –Under IPCC-A2 scenario, future 8-hr ozone increase by 5 to 10 ppbv –Larger areas of the US are impacted by ozone >80ppbv –Longer episodic ozone seasons and longer ozone episodes –Future land use have significant impact on biogenic emissions

36. Acknowledgements Advisor: Dr. Brian Lamb Committee: Drs. Hal Westberg, George Mount, Alex Guenther Funding from NW-AIRQUEST for the AIRPACT project Funding from EPA STAR for the long-term AQ predictions project Collaborating agencies: WA ECY, SWCAA, NCAR, USDA-FS, UW, EPA-R10 Staff at the CE department office –Maureen Clausen, Lola Gillespie, Vicki Ruddick, Tom Weber, and Cyndi Whitmore.

37. Acknowledgements Past and present LAR graduate students –Dr. Mike Barna, Dr. Susan O’Neill, Dr. Guangfeng Jiang –Dr. Joe Vaughan, Dr. Shelley Pressley –Jeremy Avise, Tara Strand, Ying Xie, Farren Thorpe, Matt Porter, Charleston Ramos, Brian Rumburg, Obie Cambaliza … Friends and Family

38. Questions? Thank you!

40. Presentation Outline Background Short-term air quality forecasts: –Modeling approach –Results Long-term air quality predictions: –Modeling approach –Results Summary and conclusion Acknowledgement and questions

41. Conservation Equation in an Eulerian Framework (1) (2a) (2b) (2c) (3a) (3b) (3c) (4) (5) (6) (1)Change of pollutant concentration (2a,b) Horizontal Advection (2c) Vertical Advection (3a,b) Horizontal Dispersion (3c) Vertical Diffusion (4) Chemical Reaction (5) Deposition (6) Emission/Source Term Chemical Transport Model

42. Aug. 2004 Surface Temp. ( o C) Wind Direction (deg) Wind Speed (m/s) Precip (mm) RH (%) Mean Bias (MB)-0.351.60.04 Mean Error (ME)2.4642.31.713 N3256924892254761237823466 Nov. 2004 Surface Temp. ( o C) Wind Direction (deg) Wind Speed (m/s) Precip (mm) RH (%) Mean bias (MB)0.381.8-0.43 Mean error (ME)2.2702.42.114 N3295624416249781088722931 12-km MM5 Forecast Performance

44. POC PEC PSO4 Columbia River Gorge (Bonneville Dam)

45. US Regional Emissions Current (1000 tons/day) & future/current ratio AreaMobileOff-roadPointFireBiogenic CO45 1.31 184 0.99 61 1.14 11 1.00 1.5 1.25 14 0.97 NOx5 1.57 23 0.99 11 1.11 23 1.00 N/A4.0 1.02 VOC24 2.00 15 0.98 7 1.36 5 1.00 0.1 1.24 160 0.62

46. Average daily max 8-hr ozone and 98 th percentile daily max 8-hr ozone

47. Future changes in average daily max 8-hr ozone and 98 th percentile daily max 8-hr ozone

48. Future Biogenic Emissions from Land Use, Land Cover Changes Simulated future July months with different vegetation distributions Case 1Current decade Case 2Future with current vegetation Case 3Future decade Case 4Future with afforestation Case 2 – Case 1 Case 4 – Case 1 Isoprene Emission Difference

49. Change LULC on Future Biogenic Emissions Total Continental Emissions

50. Change LULC on Future Ozone and BSOA Average Continental Concentrations

51. Long Range Forecast – Current Status Average temperature across PNW showed 2 o C increase