1. Trees in a Changing Environment Can we/they adapt fast enough? John Mexal Professor of Tree Necrology Department of Plant & Environmental Sciences New Mexico State University

2. What would the Botanical Butchers of Broadway do? What would they do? ~Apr. 1997

3. The Expected Effect!

4. Maybe something truly spectacular? Botanical equivalent of “butt-crack” syndrome!

5. This is what I found!! Jan. 2006~Apr. 1997

6. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/ Is it hot in here? Or what?

7. I’m baaack!!! What human nature would not or could not do… Mother Nature is doing it! Climate Change will claim more trees as it gets hotter and drier over the next several decades.

8. How to get there? Human Nature

9. How to get there? Human Nature

10. How to get there? Mother Nature

11. How to get there? Mother Nature http://www.weatherstock.com/

12. How to get there? T Ppt Mother Nature ΔTΔTCO 2

13. How to get there? ↑T↑T ↑EC ↑ET ↑Rs ↓netPs ↓Ts ↓Ppt Mother Nature ↑Ts ↑ΔT↑ΔT ↑T injury ↑ Disease ↓Ψ soil ↑CO 2 ↓Ps

14. How to get there? ↑T↑T ↑EC ↑ET ↑Rs ↓netPs ↓Ts ↓Ppt Mother Nature ↑Ts ↑ΔT↑ΔT ↑T injury ↑ Disease ↓Ψ soil ↑CO 2 ↓Ps

15. One way or another!

16. Climate Change Is it getting hotter? Is it getting drier? What will happen to my trees.

17. Is it hot in here? Or what?

18. Climate Change: Forests vs Grasslands Current 2050

19. Climate Change: Western Redcedar Current2050

20. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/ Is it hot in here? Or what?

21. http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/2005/ New Mexico Is it hot in here? Or what?

22. Change in vegetation with climate change/ Aber et al. Biosci. 51(9):735:2001 Hadley Centre for Climate PredictionΔT = 2.8C

23. Change in vegetation with climate change/ Aber et al. Biosci. 51(9):735:2001 Canadian Global Coupled ModelΔT = 5.2C

24. Climate Change in the SW US AZ = 0.067x - 116.46 R2 = 0.94 NM = 0.044x - 75.39 R2 = 0.84 Global Temperature

25. Top 26 warmest years 61% in last 30 yrs RankYear o F 1 2006 55.01 2 1998 54.94 3 1934 54.91 4 1999 54.53 5 1921 54.49 6 1931 54.34 7 2007 54.3 8 1990 54.24 9 2001 54.23 10 1953 54.18 11 1954 54.13 12 2005 54.08 13 1987 54.08 RankYear o F 14 1986 54.08 15 1939 54.07 16 1938 54.01 17 1981 53.88 18 1991 53.87 19 2003 53.86 20 2000 53.84 21 1946 53.81 22 1933 53.81 23 2002 53.76 24 2004 53.62 25 1994 53.61 26 1941 53.57 http://weather.about.com/od/climatechange/a/HottestYears_2.htm

26. Top 3 most unusual periods?? Mexal Records November 28, 1976 –Two days of -17 o F preceded by mild month –Lots of winter damage Summer 1980 –Broke most records for daily high T in summer –Killed hundreds of people / millions of trees –Did not make the Top 26 hottest Summer 1994 –Broke records set in 1980!!! –Only 25 th hottest year on record!!! Summer 2006 –El Paso, TX -- Rio Grande overflows its banks

27. There will be less water? Science Findings Issue 97/ Oct ‘07 1999201520312047206320792095 Year -100 -60 -80 -40 -20 0 20 Central Rocky Mountains Pacific Northwest Southern Rocky Mountains Sierra Nevada

28. Issues It’s gonna get hotter!! It’s gonna get drier!! Greater temperature fluctuations CO 2 increase from 385 ppm in 2007 to 450 ppm by 2050 What’s it mean to me???

29. Piñon is moving up the hill/ after Ryerson 2006 Elevation (ft) Piñon Mortality (%)Stocking (% Piñon ) ■, ♦ = Northern □, ◊ = Southwest (wh) □, ◊ = Southcentral (gr)

30. Hardiness Zones are Changing/ Nat’l Arbor Day Foundation http://www.arborday.org/media/zones.cfm

32. Rule of Thumb A 1 o F increase, increases ET by 1%

33. Water Use Will Increase Albuq. Jour. Jan 17, 2008 A 1 o F increase will increase water use by 1% (0.42”) –11,405 gal/ac/yr –21,019,019 gal/yr!! City has 1,843 irrigated acres –Parks & golf courses –Use 42”/ac/yr Water Use by Customer Class

34. Water Use Will Increase What happens if I don’t want to or can’t increase my water budget by 1%? –Decreased plant quality –Decrease green area –Accept more disease –Accept more mortality Quality of life

35. Water Use by Trees /Craul p.216 Canopy Diameter (ft) Water Use (gal/day)

36. Pecan Irrigation Requirements Water (in/mo)

37. Afghan Pine Irrigation Requirements Water (in/mo)

38. Las Cruces’ Tree Water Requirements Water Use (in/yr) After Sammis & Jerigan 1992

39. Turf and Irrigation Affects Tilia cordata growth Stewart et al. HortSci 40(5):1529:2005 * * * * Leaf Area (m 2 ) Turf Treatment NS = not stressed S = stressed Diameter (mm)

40. Rules of Thumb A 1 o F increase, increases ET by 1% To reduce water use—reduce canopy coverage –Under nonstressed conditions, a full canopy uses the same amount of water, i.e. Kentucky bluegrass = pecan = mesquite, etc. –Management issues: growing season, level of stress tolerance Rain is a good thing—don’t waste it! –Clean irrigation water (300 mg/L) adds about 1 ton of salt per acre per year. Plants will use less than ½ of that.

41. Pest Outbreak Triangle/ PNW,2000

42. “a condition of the plant body or of one of its parts that impairs normal functioning.” Webster’s Dictionary Definition of ‘Disease’

43. White Pine Blister Rust Spread

44. Sudden Oak Death Joseph O'Brien http://www.invasivespecies.gov Oak sudden death = Phytophthora ramorum 84 susceptible species in US Calif. black oak White fir Calif. red fir Coastal redwoods Coast live oak Douglas-fir Madrone Tanoak In 2005, spread to OR, WA, GA, LA, TN, SC In 2006, found in 22 states

45. Eriophyid mites on ash and smoke tree Ramon Sias 0.01”

46. http://cals.arizona.edu/maricopa/garden/html/t-tips/cultural/aleppo.htm Aleppo Pine Blight (Coniferal chiggers) Symptoms Usually occur in the upper part of the tree in December Damage occurs several months earlier in the hot, dry summer. Needles turn grey then brown but continue to cling to plump healthy branches until normal seasonal needle drop in the summer. Twigs and branches may die. Water-soaked cankers can appear on branches, which may split.

47. Aleppo Pine Blight on Afgahn pine? (Coniferal chiggers)

48. What are the critical parts of a tree? Xylem Bark Cambium

49. What’s Killing Your Trees Ash tree problems ‘ 90 ‘93 ‘94 ‘00 ‘03 ‘90 ‘93 ‘80 ‘68

50. 1994-itis in Raywood Ash ‘90 ‘93 ‘94 ‘00 ‘03 ‘90 ‘93 ‘80 ‘68

51. Factors Affecting Acclimation- Tissue Tolerant Pinus pinea –Shoots = - 40 o C –Roots = -10 o C Intolerant Eucalyptus camaldulensis –Shoots = -10 o C –Roots = - 3 o C

52. Mesquite Freeze Damage / April 2003

53. What’s Killing Your Trees Low Temperature Injury J. Mexal

54. SW Injury Ash Pine Willow E. Shannon Pecan

55. Global Warming Is Killing this Palm!

56. SW Injury Protection E. Shannon