1. © Crown copyright Met Office Transitioning space weather models to operations at the UK Met Office Suzy Bingham, David Jackson, Catherine Burnett and Mark Gibbs Met Office, UK ESWW, Thurs. 20 th Nov. 2014

2. © Crown copyright Met Office Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) Research models to operations: process & challenges Using other NWP methods for space weather Summary Table of Contents The Met Office

3. © Crown copyright Met Office Numerical weather prediction NWP: when current weather observations are assimilated into numerical computer models & processed using mathematical equations to generate a forecast of the future state of the weather. Met Office has great experience in NWP methods which can be used for space weather forecasting. Transfer NWP methods for terrestrial weather, to space weather

4. © Crown copyright Met Office NWP building blocks OBSERVATIONS: forecasts depend on knowledge of the current state of the environment. (1) Research in instruments & obs., (2) real-time acquisition of obs., (3) implementation of research instruments to operational use. DATA ASSIMILATION: an accurate representation of the initial state of the environment is vital so assimilate latest obs. (1) Fast comms required to gather obs., (2) expense of computational process. PREDICTION: use of a mathematical model to generate a forecast. (1) Use of approximations to evaluate equations, (2) model validation. Building blocks of NWP & some experiences to build upon:

5. © Crown copyright Met Office NWP building blocks UNCERTAINTY/ENSEMBLES: creation of multiple versions of a forecast from different initial states to give info on uncertainty of forecast. (1) Small errors can quickly grow to large, (2) resulting variation gives indication of confidence in forecast. RISK ASSESSMENT & COMMUNICATION: understand risks of impacts of the forecast & communicate to users. (1) If a large impact is forecast, a group of expert forecasters/scientist/users can be involved in decision making, (2) use of different communication methods (emails, emergency response meetings). VERIFICATION: to continually improve operational systems. (1) Use metrics to show how well the model predicts/ value added by forecaster, (2) work within WMO guidelines.

6. © Crown copyright Met Office Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) Delivers space weather alerts, warnings & forecasts 24/7. Public forecasts & sector specific forecasts are available: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/emergencies/space-weather Sits within terrestrial weather ops centre. Provides a platform for running space weather models operationally. MOSWOC

7. © Crown copyright Met Office Operational system at MOSWOC ‘Operational’ means an automated end-to-end system with: a real-time observations stream, model predictions, product dissemination & quality control monitoring. Models in an operational system are: (1) rigorously tested, (2) imbedded into a robust infrastructure & (3) supported 24/7. Reasons to run models operationally: to provide unfailing & timely model output to forecasters, to enable a research model to be run with 24/7 support (reliably), to run model after a project has been completed, resilience/backup to another centre, one place of focus for information.

8. © Crown copyright Met Office Research models to operations: the models Operational: WSA-Enlil, solar wind speed REFM, Relativistic Electron Forecasting Model, daily electron fluence forecast at GEO orbit. D-RAP, D Region Absorption Predictions Model, global map of prediction of radio propagation conditions. Enlil (D. Odstrcil) REFM (SWPC) D-RAP (SWPC)

9. © Crown copyright Met Office Research models to operations: the models Semi- operational: Multi Instrument Data Analysis System, Bath University, Total Electron Content. SPACECAST, British Antarctic Survey/EU project, 0-3hr forecast of >2MeV electron flux. SPACECAST MIDAS

10. © Crown copyright Met Office 2. Run revised model on development environment. 3. Run model on operational suite and view output on forecaster webpages. 1. Run research model on desktop PC. Review licence and terms of use of model and input data. Understand model processes, input data and output data. Rewrite in Met Office standard language if necessary. Adapt code to Linux platform if written in Windows. Adapt code to run using Met Office database input if necessary. Change model area covered e.g. to Europe, depending on customer requirements. Change cadence to meet customer requirements, e.g. REFM changed to 3hours when originally ran daily. FTP input files through firewall. Write ROSE script to auto-run model on operational suite. Test model doesn’t affect other processes on IBM. Model resolution can depend upon speed/expense on IBM. Some commands may need to be changed to run on IBM. Adapt visualisation code to Met Office style. Verify output. Complete Met Office documentation to allow model to run on operational suite. Research models to operations: the process

11. © Crown copyright Met Office Operational process Process to follow to run a model or service operationally in the Met Office.

12. © Crown copyright Met Office Research models to operations: output External webpage: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public sector/emergencies/space- weather Once a model is running operationally, output is viewed on internal Met Office webpages for forecaster use. Forecasts are then provided on the external webpages for public/sector specific use. MO internal webpages: WSA-Enlil & REFM

13. © Crown copyright Met Office Further work following NWP methods Note: need to understand space weather needs & not just use off the shelf NWP solution. Ongoing: implementing models operationally. WSA-Enlil ensemble forecasting – research stage. Verification – initial stages. Evaluation of models & forecasts to check they meet & continue to meet requirements.

14. © Crown copyright Met Office Proposal for “Carrington” – a UK Space Weather Mission A Sun-Earth Sentinel at L5. First Operational Space Weather mission – addresses MOSWOC requirements. High technology readiness, low risk, low cost. High UK heritage: instruments developed by UK scientists. Fast transfer to L5 for a 10-year mission. 24/7 operations, 100% coverage, continuous data. Excellent research output. UKMO, UK Cabinet office, protects UK infrastructure hence growth. Very large potential for UK industry and UK science to lead the field. Excellent opportunity for UK/US bilateral.

15. © Crown copyright Met Office Summary Met Office has built upon its experience using NWP methods, for transitioning space weather models to operations. Challenges which arise when implementing models operationally include: re- writing code & ftping input data through firewalls. Continue to transition research models to operations. Continue to use NWP methods for space weather forecasting.

16. © Crown copyright Met Office Questions and answers

17. © Crown copyright Met Office Enlil model Purpose: Models solar wind speed & density from Sun to Earth. Predicts CME arrival times at Earth, leading to onset of potential geomagnetic disturbances causing problems in radio comms, GPS navigation, etc. Developer: D. Odstrcil Input: Output from WSA. WSA uses solar magnetograms to predict background solar wind speed & IMF providing inner boundary conditions for Enlil (we currently use NOAA files). Output: Run every 2hrs to produce animation of forecast of solar wind at Earth, STEREO A & B, for next few days. Cadence: 1 GONG synoptic map/hr

18. © Crown copyright Met Office CME analysis tools Purpose: Tool to allow calculation of CME parameters for input into Enlil. Allows user to model evolution of CME outwards from Sun to estimate CME path & arrival time at Earth. Developer: NASA (StereoCAT) & NOAA (CAT) Input: use STEREO A & B & LASCO images. Fit CME images with a cone over a period of time. Uses triangulation from different viewpoints of spacecraft. Output: CME parameters (origin, direction, speed, half-width). Input into Enlil to predict CME arrival at Earth.

19. © Crown copyright Met Office SPACECAST Purpose: Solar activity triggers bursts of energetic particles. High energy particles can damage satellites & are hazard to manned spaceflight & aviation. Daily fluence is related to deep dielectric charging in spacecraft. SPACECAST predicts high energy electron fluxes/fluence at geostationary orbit (GOES orbit), Galileo/GPS orbit & Slot region orbit. Developer: BAS/EU project Input: FTP files from BAS model (flux at fixed energies for a range of L* & 2MeV differential flux at a range of pitch-angles & L*) Output: 0-3hr forecast of >2MeV electron flux & associated risk index at different orbits. Plot of electron fluence compared with that measured by GOES satellite.

20. © Crown copyright Met Office REFM Purpose: Relativistic Electron Forecast Model. Predicts daily build up of electron flux for next 3 days at geosynchronous orbit. Allows satellite operators to e.g. plan maintenance, implement protection measures to minimise charging of satellite components. Developer: NOAA SWPC Input: ACE solar wind speed, GOES electron flux data (>2MeV), GOES particle flux data (>30MeV). Output: >2MeV electron fluence at GSO orbit. 1-3 day forecast produced once a day. Future: Can also be run using Enlil solar wind speed to give 8 day forecast.

21. © Crown copyright Met Office MIDAS Purpose: Multi-Instrument Data Analysis System. Images ionospheric activity in real-time. Takes delay in GPS signal to produce European region map of Total Electron Content (TEC) nowcast. Developer: Bath University Input: Measurements from ground- & spaced-based GPS receivers, & point estimates of local electron density. Output: TEC map over Europe every 15mins

22. © Crown copyright Met Office D-RAP Purpose: D-Region Absorption Prediction (in ionosphere, 50-90km). Provides real-time data of the degradation of HF (3-30MHz) radio propagation conditions (due to solar X-ray flares & solar radiation storms). Provides HF degradation data at all latitudes on sunlit side of Earth. Developer: NOAA SWPC Input: GOES X-ray flux (1min) & proton flux (5min), estimated 3hr Kp, L-values from geomagnetic model Output: Real-time predictions of the global absorption conditions of the D- region, every 1 min.