1. Spill Response Forecast Science From The Non-Biological Viewpoint Bill Lehr NOAA Emergency Response Division

2. Standard caveat The contents of this talk reflect the personal views of the author and may not reflect the opinions and conclusions of NOAA or the U.S. government.

3. original response

4. Present response

5. 21st century response Remote Sensing

8. Oil Fate and Behavior

9. Lots of processes

10. Why fate is important to response Mass balance has response and damage assessment implications Viscosity and density affect cleanup options Hydrocarbon mix influences toxicity Oil distribution in or on water affects resource impact

11. Calculated properties Good handle Density Viscosity Bad handle Water content Oil droplet size distribution

12. Estimated processes Good handle evaporation from ‘thin films’ slick drift Bad handle dispersion oil-ice interaction sedimentation emulsification photo-oxidation spreading

13. ADIOS3 PHILOSOPHY ADIOS3 is NOT to be just the NOAA oil spill fate and behavior model. Research and development has deliberately been multi-agency, multi-discipline, and multi- viewpoint with input sought from all stakeholders. The intent is to produce predictions that represent the scientific consensus of likely spill behavior in the event of a spill incident

14. ADIOS3 -PURPOSE ADIOS3 is an initial oil spill response tool for emergency spill responders and contingency planners. The program integrates a library of oil properties with a short-term oil fate and cleanup model to estimate the amount of time that spilled oil will remain in the marine environment, and to develop cleanup strategies. It will also provide weathering information to NOAA’s oil spill trajectory program, GNOME2. The target audience of ADIOS3 will be the oil spill response command, particularly on-scene commands connected to the USCG. It basic output will be information that can complete the Incident Command System (ICS) form 209 (oil budget).

15. INTRINSIC PROPERTIES DENSITY Function of fraction evaporated, water temperature, and water content of emulsion ADIOS2 Function of pseudo-component fraction, water temperature, and water content of emulsion ADIOS3 Function of fraction evaporated, water temperature, and water content of emulsion (Moody equation) ADIOS2 Function of fraction evaporated, water temperature, and water content of emulsion(empirical formula) ADIOS3 VISCOSITY Key personnel Robert Jones Lyman Young

16. MASS BALANCE EVAPORATION Pseudo-component method assuming well mixed hypothesis- Payne model ADIOS2 Diffusion limit and sea-spray modifications to pseudo-component ADIOS3 Subsidiary process of droplet formation. ADIOS2 Same as above with empirical results of LSU study- component dependent ADIOS3 DISSOLUTION Key personnel Robert Jones Merv Fingas Louis Thibodeaux Bruce Hollebone

17. MASS BALANCE (cont) DISPERSION- - SURFACE Delvigne formula ADIOS2 Katz method accounting for both viscosity and surface tension ADIOS3 Not applicable ADIOS2 Boufadel-NOAA composite ADIOS3 DISPERSION- SUBSURFACE Key personnel Michel Boufadel Joe Katz Alberto Aliseda Debra Simecek-Beatty

18. OTHER PROCESSES EMULSIFICATION McKay model ADIOS2 Fingas stable, meso-stable, unstable model ADIOS3 ADIOS2 Environment Canada(Khelifa) model with possible addition of marine snow ADIOS3 OMA/SEDIMENTATION Key personnel Bill Lehr Lyman Young Merv Fingas Bruce Hollebone Ali Khelifa Uta Passow Dave Hollander Payne model

19. OTHER PROCESSES BIODEGRADATIO N Not applicable ADIOS2 NOAA-UW model ADIOS3 ADIOS2 Environment Canada (Khelifa) model ADIOS3 OIL-ICE Key personnel Robert Jones Dalina Viveros Russ Herwith Michel Boufadel Ali Khelifa Not applicable Remaining challenge – photo-oxidation

20. Expanded statistics Spill volume Cleanup parameters Cleanup parameters Wind speed Weathering algorithm Weathering algorithm Output variable Output variable Multiple scenario runs

21. RISK ANALYSIS What decisions does the on-scene command have to make?

22. Response Utility Benefit/Cost NONE HIGH BENEFIT Skimming operations efficiency Dispersant effectiveness operations Apply skimming operations Apply dispersant operations

23. Predicting the Future “It is thus not surprising that oil spill models are viewed with a spectrum of emotions ranging from touching faith to utter contempt. Predictably, devising and running oil spill models (which is great fun) has been taken to excess and we now have a proliferation of models, no two of which predict the same future, and no one of which predicts an accurate future.” Donald Mackay, University of Toronto