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Moving Past the “Wall” of the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Martha Hay August 2011 Exploring the limits of corn-based ethanol as a renewable fuel
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The Energy Crisis In 2003, 83% of energy came from fossil fuels ▫Fossil fuels = nonrenewable limited supply US makes up ~5% of global population, yet consumes 25% of oil US imports ~60% of its oil Developing countries growing worldwide energy consumption Increasing competition = threat to US fuel supply
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Additional concerns Environmental concerns ▫Combustion byproducts: CO2 – greenhouse gas CO – pollutant NOx –pollutant Drilling oil spills ▫BP Gulf Coast ▫Exxon Valdez
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Push towards alternative fuels ~74% of petroleum went to transportation sector in 2009 Alternative transportation fuel could significantly reduce fossil fuel consumption
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Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Promote development of alternative energy ▫Tax incentives ▫Mandates by volume (gallons) Goal=36 billion gallons renewable fuel in 2022 Blenders contribute Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO)
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4 Categories Total renewable fuels Advanced biofuels Cellulosic and agricultural waste-based biofuel Biomass-based diesel (BBD) http://www.greentechnolog.com/indust ry/renewal_fuels_inc/
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http://thepurporters.wordpress.com/2011/04/14/a-view-of-the-future-irresponsible- practices-are-washing-the-ground-from-beneath-our-feet/
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2022 Goal attainable? 36 billion gallons renewable fuels No more than 15 billion from corn-based ethanol Biodiesel capped at 1 billion for 2012 ▫2022 goal not set ≥ 16 billion from cellulosic Cellulosic falls short ▫Bumped down from 250 to 6.6 million gallons for 2011 Where will the rest of this renewable fuel come from?
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Corn-based ethanol In 2010, ethanol production contributed $53.6 billion to the GDP In 2010, ethanol production employed 70,000 Americans In 2004, CO 2 emissions reduced by > 7 million tons, equivalent to removing >1 million cars from the road for 1 year
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Ethanol Consumption 14.31 billion gallons produced in 2010 Cars approved for 10% ethanol (E10) in gasoline ▫Exception Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFVs) Can use up to 85% ethanol 74% gasoline produced in the U.S. contains ethanol Two types: ▫Corn-based –contributes the majority ▫Cellulosic – not economical to manufacture
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Ethanol is green Environmental “savings” actually just a trade-off Not cost-competitive even after 30 yrs of development &subsidies ▫Ethanol not actually that young Limited biomass Farm equipment uses fossil fuels Food versus Fuel 2009 national ethanol production used ~32% of U.S. corn crop Corrosive infrastructure problems
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Pushing past the ethanol “wall” Corn will be main contributor for RFS Wall = when the U.S. fuel supply can’t absorb anymore ethanol ▫Assuming the following don’t change drastically E10 limit # of FFVs Availability of E85
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How to push past the “wall” A) Increase the concentration of ethanol in gasoline for regular cars (E10 E15) B) Increase number of FFVs on the road and availability of E85 at fueling stations
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Option A – Approve higher blends EPA tried to pass an E15 waiver. Opposition: ▫Insufficient, incomplete DOE testing ▫Several automobiles failed testing for emissions ▫E10 already causing problems for non-road engines (chainsaws, lawnmowers, boats) ▫Some states want E0 to be available
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Option B –more FFVs and E85 There are only 8 million FFVs on the road, and approx. 1% of fueling stations offer E85. EPA estimates that FFV owners only fill up with E85 about 5% of the time Retailers have to pay for the modifications for E85 retail stations (expensive)
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Inevitable problems Significant hurdles regardless ▫Ethanol transported via rail (66%), trucks (29%), and barge (5%) Not compatible with petroleum pipelines New pipelines expensive ▫Retail stations USTs, nozzles, and piping need to be upgraded Retailers would have to upgrade their systems on their own expensive
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When in doubt: throw more money at it! Blender’s credit for following a federal mandate Corn ethanol subsidies totaled $7.0 billion in 2006 Subsidies unevenly distributed http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d11513.pdf
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Recommendations Cut subsidies for ethanol and oil industries Should not approve E15 just to pass the “wall” need to complete sufficient testing Provide financial assistance for retailers willing to provide E85 Invest in drop-in fuels ▫Technology development funding E0 available for non-road engines Regional fuels
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Potentially Useful Conversion Processes New Zealand
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Broaden the RFS Add category for electric/hybrid cars Two pools for light-duty and heavy-duty vehicles ▫Biodiesel capped at 1 billion gallons
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Best Practices Reduce energy consumption ▫Passivhaus – German building standard ▫Increase gas prices (consider Europe) ▫Promote electric and hybrid cars Promote other renewable energy: solar, wind, nuclear can all contribute to electric Education informed decision makers International collaboration worth consideration
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