1. What the Census tells us Presented by Dr John Guenther to A21, Launceston, September 2007

2.  This presentation is designed to promote a discussion about religious trends in Tasmania.  It does not suggest answers and should not be taken as a ‘proof’ of anything in particular.  It does however, give a fairly comprehensive picture of a selection of variables from the 2006 Census and highlights a number of issues.  The inferences and implications shown at the end of this presentation are derived from the data but would need to be tested with further qualitative research. John Guenther, December 2009

4. Row Labels19861991199620012006 Buddhism40167199420092605 Christian: Anglican154578166147156054147196139181 Christian: Baptist80739884971489688671 Christian: Brethren38543279308021652217 Christian: Catholic8031489243890528756987650 Christian: Churches of Christ20411623167514651708 Christian: Jehovah's Witnesses20592244227019512198 Christian: Latter Day Saints14051472161016111596 Christian: Lutheran17372303216420272183 Christian: Oriental Christian6831363471 Christian: Orthodox195821412150 2354 Christian: Other Christian9566524168131050410145 Christian: Other Protestant3002529897762785 Christian: Pentecostal19353454377622304753 Christian: Presbyterian and Reformed1202814406139581248412103 Christian: Salvation Army34343091286624972236 Christian: Seventh-day Adventist14111218115911121041 Christian: Total324152344847332140315027305610 Christian: Uniting Church3668938541348663030227454 Hinduism292429440495778 Islam5146088098651044 Judaism161190168184235 No religion47701550397672078549102271 Not stated5915447081442064717257972

11. Factors associated with proportional representation of religious groups in Tasmania, 2006 Religious group Median age Individual income Household size Per cent of population under 15 Per cent completed Year 12 Per cent one parent families Per cent with no connection to Internet Per cent intact families Anglican Positive Catholic Positive Total Christian PositiveNegative Buddhism NegativePositive Other religions NegativePositive HinduismNegativePositiveNegative PositiveNegative Not statedNegative No religionPositiveNegative

12. Religious group Median age Individual income Household size Per cent of population under 15 Per cent completed Year 12 No connection to Internet Per cent intact families Per cent unpaid work Anglican PositiveNegative Catholic Positive Negative Total Christian PositiveNegative Positive Buddhism NegativePositive HinduismNegative PositiveNegative Not statedNegative IslamPositive

13.  In terms of religious affiliation we see ◦ Decline in ‘total Christian’ is attributable mainly to Anglican and Uniting Church decline ◦ In mainly urbanised areas, Pentecostals are growing fastest ◦ In mainly rural areas, Catholics are growing fastest ◦ Other religions (esp. Buddhism) are growing (from a low base) in and around Hobart and a few other places ◦ Baptists are growing fast where there are no Baptist churches!

14.  Baptists are tending to decline fastest where there are existing, strong Baptist churches  Pentecostals are tending to grow fastest where there are existing Pentecostal churches  Generally, religious groups grow fastest where there is an established presence  Growth in Buddhism and Hinduism is associated with declines in Christian churches  Growth in Catholics is associated with one parent families

15.  Dissatisfaction with large institutional churches does not explain the decline of Christian affiliation (compare Anglican/Uniting with Pentecostal/Catholic)  Growth is associated with presence of young people. Significance of the family?  Growth is associated with low educational achievement. Are Christians seen to be dumb?  Growth is associated with no access to technology. Are Christians Luddites?

16.  Decline is not age related; i.e. its not because we are getting older  Decline is not income related; i.e. it is not shrinking faster because of wealth  Decline is not due to family structure; i.e. it is not because of a breakdown in traditional families

17.  Christian churches should maintain a strong emphasis on youth ministry to build on current strengths  Christians should engage in reasoned debate about important societal issues, including environment, social inequity, injustice etc.  Christians should address the aspirations and needs of all groups to have an effective evangelistic outreach.

18.  Further questions and comments are invited and should be directed to: ◦ Dr John Guenther ◦ Research Consultant ◦ Cat Conatus ◦ m: PO Box 469, Ulverstone, TAS 7315 ◦ TAS: 13 Hamilton St, Ulverstone, TAS 7315 ◦ NT: 91/111 Bloomfield St, Alice Springs, NT 0870 ◦ p: 03 6425 9016 ◦ m: 0412 125 661 ◦ w: http://www.catconatus.com.auhttp://www.catconatus.com.au ◦ e: john@catconatus.com.aujohn@catconatus.com.au