1. Contribution to “Air quality analysis in the city of Teheran” Emission inventories to understand air quality of the present and predict the future Hugo Denier van der Gon and Peter Builtjes

2. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO2 Contents TNO organisation Why make emission inventories? Which sources? – Construction of an emission inventory Examples of data base & maps Satellite data to validate? Examples of policy support questions

3. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO3 TNO organisation Knowledge in practice TNO is a knowledge organisation for companies, government bodies and public organisations. The daily work of some 5,000 employees is to develop and apply knowledge. We provide contract research and specialist consultancy as well as grant licences for patents and specialist software. TNO is active in five core areas: TNO Quality of Life TNO Defence, Security and Safety TNO Science and Industry TNO Built Environment and Geosciences TNO Information and Communication Technology

4. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO4 Ambition and outlook of the TNO business unit environmental health and safety We see Increasing mobility and industrial activities Intensification and more complex use of available land Increasing demands on the quality of the (human) environment (EU directives) and increased, stricter enforcement Citizens are better informed, have the right to know and have become more demanding and critical TNO - BU Environmental Health and Safety has the ambition to operate in the middle of these conflicting developments by making science applicable, providing policy support and technological solutions

5. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO5 TNO environment - Networks & clients EEA Topic center AQ & CC, EMEP (TFEIP) International institutes (MSC-East/West, IIASA, CNRS, JRC) National institutes RIVM, ECN, Alterra, KNMI, University’s EU projects (air 4 EU), ACCENT, EUROTRAC, GMES, LRTAP modelling & inventories VROM (Dutch ministry for the environment) UBA-Germany EU (pollution registers, dioxine inventories, guidance, research programs) Local authorities (impact of planned infrastructure on AQ) Industry (branches) – impact assessment

6. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO6 The need for Emission inventories Determine the past and present situation Identify (autonomous) changes and trends Identify the (relative) importance of sources for (further) reducing the release of pollutants to the environment Evaluate achieved emission reductions by policies, technological improvements, etc. Input to explore further options for emission reductions including costs of measures Input for predictive modeling of environmental distribution, exposure of ecosystems, source–receptor relationships

7. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO7 Concept – DPSIR: The causal chain of Air Pollution Pressures State Impact Responses Driving forces e.g. quality e.g. health, ecosystems Pressures Responses Drivin g forces Causes (economic growth, increasing mobility) Emissions of pollutants Policy (e.g., regulation of emissions, filters, new technologies PM10, NOx, ……

8. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO8 Emission sources…

9. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO9 We distinguish two types of sources: Point sources and diffuse sources- Generally speaking diffuse sources are difficult to measure, quantify and control. Example: Sources of PM emission in industry Point sources (canalized and emitted by stacks) Production process units Combustion for energy purposes (liquid and solid fuels) Diffuse sources Ventilation of production buildings Production in open air Material handling operations (storage and transport)

10. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO10 Example of TNO project: COORDINATED EUROPEAN PARTICULATE MATTER EMISSION INVENTORY PROGRAM (CEPMEIP) Activity_ID Sector Location Time Activities AR-Value EF_ID Technology_ID TSP PM10 PM2.5 EF-Value Emission Factors Technology_ID Description Technology level Covers all known anthropogenic emission causes of primary particulate matter; ~ 200 source categories - For each source category TSP, PM10 & PM2.5 emission factors derived. Emission factor : Representative index number that expresses the emission of a pollutant per unit of activity (e.g., g PM10 / GJ fuel) Emission is highly determined by emission control measures – technology level information is crucial! By source By country /grid Emissions

11. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO11 To keep an overview, sources are aggregated by type: Source sector as used for the gridded emission maps. Classification is based on the SNAP level 1 system with a more detailed split in SNAP 7 (road transport).

12. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO12 But…in underlying inventory much detail is necessary! Example combustion in industry: Fuels (influence on emissions due to quality and composition): Heavy fuel oil Lighter fuel oil Gas Coal, brown coal, peat Wood Industrial waste Installation types (influence on emissions due to emission limits, removal efficiencies, Emission control technologies) Autoproducers (> 50 MWth) Other large boilers (50 - 300 MWth) Large and small furnaces where combustion gases and proces emissions are emitted through the same stack (covered by Industrial process emissions, 10 - 300 MWth) Small Boilers (< 50 MWth)

13. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO13 Results: European PM 10 emissions Present policies 2010 (incl. Kyoto) Despite differences, all sectors contribute!!

14. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO14 Results: European antropogenic PM2.5 emissions in 2000 including international shipping Source: Visschedijk and Denier van der Gon, TNO, 2005

15. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO15 Sulphur dioxide (SO2) in Europe - I The main emission sources of SO2 are combustion processes, especially the combustion of coal and heavy fuel oil. In addition there are non-ferrous metals smelting processes of which the ores are generally in sulphide form. Activity data for fossil fuel combustion are taken from the IEA Energy Statistics [IEA 2003]. The IEA distinguishes several coal ranks and heavy and medium distillate fuel oils, as well as different types of lighter fuels and gasses. Emission factors - Combustion related SO2 emission by fuel type i and process j is calculated according to: Emissionfuel(i) = [Usefuel(i) x Sulphur contentfuel(i) - Sulphur retentionprocess(j)] x Removal efficiencyprocess(j) Values per country, by fuel type and by process for sulphur contents, sulphur retention in ashes and removal efficiencies have been taken from RAINS 7.2. [Cofala et al. 1998]. (Not yet available for Iran)

16. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO16 Sulphur dioxide (SO2) in Europe - II Source: Visschedijk and Denier van der Gon, TNO, 2005

17. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO17 Trends…. Importance of sources shifts over time! What is <10% today may dominate emissions in the future. PastPresent

18. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO18

19. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO19 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 NOx PM 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 % reduction Euro IEuro IIEuro IIIEuro IV Euro V Trends in Heavy-duty Vehicles Emission Reduction In Europe – In 2010 emissions per vehicle are ~10% of their 1980-90 level

20. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO20 PM2.5 emission in Europe in 1995 Mobile sources contribute 33% and 14% Source contributions are technology level dependent and therefore vary by region

21. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO21 Road transport Large activity growth Decreasing tail pipe emissions due to technological improvements None-tail pipe emissions (wear of tires etc.) follow the trend of acticity growth Relative importance of non-tail pipe is increasing To make an inventory of road transport emissions we need to know: Activity data – fuel consumption (by type: diesel, gasoline, LPG) by vehicle category (passenger cars, HDV, LDV, motorcycles) fuel quality / composition (S content, Pb,..) technology level of fleet by year (emission limits, requirements) Split in number of km driven urban / rural

22. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO22 Emission inventories for AQ Teheran – what is needed? Activity_ID Sector Location Time Activities AR-Value Activity_ID Technology_ID Penetration Select_Techn EF_ID Technology_ID Pollutant EF-Value EmissionFactors Technology_ID Description Technologies Tables of the relational TEAM database need to be filled – asking for 1)activity (statistical) data on energy consumption, industrial production,….. 2)technologies present in Iran and their relative importance (penetration); 3)technology specific emission factors.

23. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO23 Possible Approach: First order draft inventory Activity_ID Sector Location Time Activities AR-Value Activity_ID Technology_ID Penetration Select_Techn EF_ID Technology_ID Pollutant EF-Value EmissionFactors Technology_ID Description Technologies Derived from Previous TNO studies

24. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO24 Emission inventories for AQ Teheran – what is needed? Additional information on Spatial location of sources to make emission maps Technical information on important point sources such as stack height, heat output Lower resolution and detail at the national scale to model background AQ, higher resolution and more accurate at the city scale

25. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO25 Policy support examples Which sources contribute most to high pollutant (limit exceedance) days What would be a good indicator of health relevant exposure Modelling of the impact on ambient concentrations due to planned infrastructural activities such as new industrial areas & additional roads Source receptor matrices on a national and regional scale Quantification of the fraction that can be mitigated by national/local measures Advise on local measures to comply with limit values Cost-effectiveness of various measures (e.g. transport vs industry) Scenario analysis – backcasting & forecasting: what emissions are expected in 2010-2020 provided the known autonomous measures and/or signed protocols, policies etc.

26. Air Quality Teheran June 2006Emission inventories @ TNO26 Thank you for your attention For more information or questions Peter.Builtjes@TNO.NLPeter.Builtjes@TNO.NL & Hugo.Deniervandergon@TNO.NLHugo.Deniervandergon@TNO.NL TNO, Apeldoorn, The Netherlands