1. smi Software Metrics, Inc. Future Trends in Software Cost Modeling Betsy Clark Software Metrics Inc.

2. smi Software Metrics, Inc. Future Trends, Emerging Technologies, Accelerators and Inhibitors Parametric models take a long time to do well Need a well-understood domain Need a reasonably consistent set of development processes Choosing parameters and developing scales takes a long time Gathering consistent data for calibration takes a long time End up playing “catch up” with new development technologies

3. smi Software Metrics, Inc. Future Trends The arena of software development is becoming more dynamic and distributed Entry into the software marketplace is easier –The cost of entry into programming used to be huge Computer mainframes cost millions Programming languages were difficult or arcane Only large companies could afford the equipment and training for software development Cheap desktop computers, open source tools and languages make it possible for anyone to become a software developer and for any company to enter the software product market place –Premium on rapid development, time-to-market

4. smi Software Metrics, Inc. Challenges for Parametric Models Parametric models require a recognizable, repeatable pattern of development With new development technologies, there are more different and changing ways (patterns) of developing software –COCOTS experience: Development patterns tend to be local –These patterns can change rapidly Centralized parametric model development does not keep pace with these changes

5. smi Software Metrics, Inc. An Analogy - Large Central Film Studios versus YouTube The days of the big, centralized film and music recording studios may be diminishing…. – Everyone can be their own movie maker or record label see YouTube.com Perhaps model development needs to become more distributed as well –Individuals understand their local environment In addition to developing centralized “big-gun” cost estimation models (models that can account for anything), what about encouraging people to develop models locally and then share those results? –Not the underlying data but their model

6. smi Software Metrics, Inc. Future Directions6 “Mayfly” Models Agile, adaptable, flexible, localized and short-lived Challenge in the future is to develop a framework for developing models quickly and then teach that framework to software engineers –(Brad says he would love to do this!) There could be different modeling approaches for different segments of software engineering: –Parametric models for large scale development, e.g. FCS There will continue to be a need for these types of models –Mayfly models for dynamic, changing development technologies