1. Capital Region Transportation Planning Agency Regional Mobility Plan Capital Region Transportation Planning Agency Regional Mobility Plan

2. Guiding Metropolitan Growth through Development Economics November 2009 Dialogue Primer Session Bruce W. Landis, P.E., AICP Vice President Sprinkle Consulting, Inc.

3. Guiding Metropolitan Growth through Development Economics Development Decision Economics Influence through transportation system policy and community investment Shape (internally) Development

4. Regional Economic / Development “Engines”

5. Regional Development “Engines” 50,000 students & employees 50,000 + employees 15,000 students & employees

6. Land Development Growth “Pioneers”

7. Land Development Growth “Roof-top Followers”

8. Key to Directing Growth… Influence Influence the Development Economics Graphic from K2 Urban Corp

9. You can affect Development Location Decisions… Graphic from K2 Urban Corp

10. To Direct Market Forces… Understand Their Basis Offer Effective Incentives… Educate the Market’s Agents Supply Demand Price Quantity

12. Land Development ProForma (50 SFDU) Revenue (Sales) $11,250,000 Costs Land Acquisition $ 1,800,000 Site Infrastructure $ 900,000 Product Cost (COGS) $ 5,000,000 Transportation $ 400,000 Interest Carry (5yrs) $ 1,200,000 Subtotal $ 9,300,000 Potential Margin / ROI$ 1,950,000 (20%) (Off-site infrastructure)

13. Land Development ProForma Revenue (Sales)$11,250,000 Costs Land Acquisition $ 1,800,000 Site Infrastructure $ 900,000 Product Cost (COGS) $ 5,000,000 Transportation $ 400,000 Interest Carry (5yrs) $ 1,200,000 Subtotal $ 9,300,000 Potential Margin / ROI$ 1,950,000 (20%) Here is what you can influence… 17%

14. Land Development ProForma Revenue (Sales)$11,250,000 Costs Land Acquisition $ 1,800,000 Site Infrastructure $ 900,000 Product Cost (COGS) $ 5,000,000 Transportation $ 400,000 Interest Carry (5yrs) $ 1,200,000 Subtotal $ 9,300,000 Potential Margin / ROI$ 1,950,000 (20%) Reduce Interest Carry… (Off-site infrastructure)

15. Land Development ProForma Revenue (Sales)$11,250,000 Costs Land Acquisition $ 1,800,000 Site Infrastructure $ 900,000 Product Cost (COGS) $ 5,000,000 Transportation $ 400,000 4 Interest Carry (4yrs) $ 900,000 Subtotal $ 9,000,000 Potential Margin / ROI$ 2,250,000 (25%) Reduce Interest Carry… Build There!!! (Off-site infrastructure)

16. Land Development ProForma Revenue (Sales)$11,250,000 Costs Land Acquisition $ 1,800,000 Site Infrastructure $ 900,000 Product Cost (COGS) $ 5,000,000 Transportation $ 400,000 Interest Carry (5yrs) $ 1,200,000 Subtotal $ 9,300,000 Potential Margin / ROI$ 1,950,000 (20%) Here is what you can influence…. (Off-site infrastructure)

17. Land Development ProForma Revenue (Sales)$11,250,000 Costs Land Acquisition $ 1,800,000 Site Infrastructure $ 900,000 Product Cost (COGS) $ 5,000,000 Transportation $ 40,000 Interest Carry (5yrs) $ 1,200,000 Subtotal $ 8,940,000 Potential Margin / ROI$ 2,310,000 (26%) Build There!!! Here is what you’ve helped…. (Off-site infrastructure)

18. Land Development ProForma Revenue (Sales)$11,250,000 Costs Land Acquisition $ 1,800,000 Site Infrastructure $ 900,000 Product Cost (COGS) $ 5,000,000 Transportation $ 40,000 Interest Carry (4yrs) $ 900,000 Subtotal $ 8,640,000 Potential Margin / ROI$ 2,610,000 (30%) Direct Incentives… Build There!!! (Off-site infrastructure)

19. To Direct Market Forces… Supply Demand Price Quantity

20. Supply Demand Price Quantity Raw Land Market… New Raw Land Price

21. Land Development ProForma Revenue (Sales)$11,250,000 Costs Land Acquisition $ 1,800,000 Site Infrastructure $ 900,000 Product Cost (COGS) $ 5,000,000 Transportation $ 40,000 Interest Carry (4yrs) $ 900,000 Subtotal $ 9,300,000 Potential Margin / ROI$ 1,950,00 (20%) No Net Incentive (Off-site infrastructure) $2,460,000

22. “Business-as-usual”

23. “Compact Development”

24. Land Consumption (111.9 – 77.94) / 111.9 = 30% “Business-as-usual”“Compact Development” Georgia Coastal Comprehensive Plan

25. Land Development ProForma Revenue (Sales)$11,250,000 Costs Land Acquisition $ 2,460,000 Site Infrastructure $ 900,000 Product Cost (COGS) $ 5,000,000 Transportation $ 40,000 Interest Carry (4yrs) $ 900,000 Subtotal $ 8,640,000 Potential Margin / ROI$ 2,610,000 (30%) Build There!!! (Off-site infrastructure) $1,800,000

26. Parcel Assemblage v. Simple Purchase I know there is a market need for my product, where should I buy the land?

27. Parcel Assemblage v. Simple Purchase Lemme see, should I try to deal with 12 sellers and their attorneys, or just Farmer Brown?

29. Long-term Maintenance Commitment Education………………….. Public Safety..……………. Roads………………………. Wastewater……………….. Fire/Rescue; Water; Parks; Solid Waste.......... 40% 8% 30% 11% Public ServicePercent of Avg. Annual Cost Source: Duncan and Associates. The Search for Efficient Urban Growth Patterns: A Study of Fiscal Impacts of Florida Development. Governor’s Task Force on Urban Growth Patterns and DCA. Tallahassee FL, 1989.

30. Long-term Maintenance Commitment Education………………….. Public Safety..……………. Roads………………………. Wastewater……………….. Fire/Rescue; Water; Parks; Solid Waste.......... 40% 8% 30% 11% Public ServicePercent of Avg. Annual Cost Source: Duncan and Associates. The Search for Efficient Urban Growth Patterns: A Study of Fiscal Impacts of Florida Development. Governor’s Task Force on Urban Growth Patterns and DCA. Tallahassee FL, 1989.

32. Impacts on Traffic Activity Form / Location Compact / Infill Contiguous / USA fringe Scattered / Linear Avg. Traffic Trip Length Duncan’89 FDOT (335.067, F.S.) Weighted Avg. 6.8 mi 4.9mi 5.4mi 6.4mi 9.6mi 8.8mi 8.3mi 12.1mi 11.2mi

33. 100 lot subdivision

34. Traffic Generation Data Source: Institute of Transportation Engineers Trip Generation, 7 th Edition.

35. Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)

36. Streets & Roadways Maintenance Data Sources: City of Tallahassee Annual Budget, Leon County Annual Budget, Leon County CIP, FDOT Historical Work Program, and FDOT Countywide VMT Estimate * Excluding I-10 Costs and Traffic

37. Costs of Development Locations (P/A, 3%, 35)

39. Land Development ProForma Revenue (Sales)$11,250,000 Costs Land Acquisition $ 1,800,000 Site Infrastructure $ 900,000 Product Cost (COGS) $ 5,000,000 Transportation $ 400,000 Interest Carry (5yrs) $ 1,200,000 Subtotal $ 9,300,000 Potential Margin / ROI$ 1,950,000 (20%) (Off-site infrastructure)

40. Proforma CategoryInfluence / Action Revenue (Sales)……. Costs Land Acquisition…… Site Infrastructure…… Product Cost (COGS) Transportation…… Interest Carry………. Guiding Growth through Development Economics Public Investment - Community Fabric; Public Transit; Active Transportation; Streetscapes; Public Education; etc. Density / Property Yield n/a Incentives/Disincentives Streamline Permitting Regional Growth Influence Areas

41. Source: Trulia TM Real Estate Search